1/2nl live game Starting stack is $240 and villian covers. Been playing in the game for about an hour and the villian is SUPER drunk but still somewhat of a reasonable player. Plays super LAG style and raises/plays a ton of hands. Hero is a TAG and doubled up off this villian in a previous hand.

Villian utg +2 raises to $17 (standard raise he was making in this game 15-20).
Hero is bb with AQ flat calls. Thought about 3 betting but villian has shoved over the top everytime he has been 3 bet. The two times he got called showed JJ and AJ so didnt really think it was profitable to be 3bet calling off here with AQ.

Flop comes J25

Hero checks
Villian bets $20
Hero calls

Turn 7

Hero checks
Villian says what do you have over there (feels weak to me) and bets $45
Hero calls

River 3

Hero checks

Villian checks

I felt like he was the type of player that was capable of 2 barrelling as seen but not 3 barrelling but would also be interested in discussion on what to do if hero bets river if it would be a horrible call barring my read is AQ could be good here enough of the time???

How many times has he raised/shoved preflop? It sounds like it's been happening fairly often, and if so then I think your hand is definitely strong enough to play for stacks preflop.

I think whoever was ahead preflop is likely still ahead after this flop. So if you didn't think it was profitable to shove preflop I don't like the flop call (unless you knew he would only fire 1 bullet). I'd either fold or raise as a semi-bluff to maybe get him to fold a smaller pocket pair than JJ (I'd also be willing to fire turn).

I'm kinda tired, so I don't know if I'm making sense.

He has raised shoved 4 times! AK, JJ, AJ and the 4th hand never seen so against the range I saw I wasnt comfortable shipping it pre against him because he will also fire and over value KQ, QJ, Q10 and other weird gapper hands. His raising range was SUPER wide. But I also didnt want to get pushed off the hand as AQ was a strong hand over all against his range I thought at the time.

If according to you he is opening a relatively wide range, and 4bet shoving 100% of that range I am 3betting and instantly calling a shove all day everyday.

If you think he has air then I would rather c/r the turn all in to potentially get him to fold AK ui as well as underpairs...

I don't completely hate calling two streets with your hand against this villain. But I think a raise at some point is a lot better... I see him showing up with a ton of hands that beat you, but that he would've folded to a raise. Maybe min-raise turn, shove river - gonna put him in a super tough spot with his entire range.

I'd ship it to a drunk LAG all day pre with AQo.
As played raise somewhere is good, cause you are ahead of his range but he can easily outdraw you.

Just to show how much money you make 3b/calling this pre once you know for a fact he ships AJ:

Assume his open range is 25%
Assume his stack-off range is 88+/AJ+ (~6.5%)

3/4 of the time he folds and you win $20.
1/4 of the time he shoves, you call and have 42.87% vs his range.

You invest $238 and get back 0.4287*$483 = $207 (a loss of $31).

(3/4 * +$20) + (1/4 * -$31) = +$7.25.

Obviously the wider you make his stackoff range and/or his open range preflop, the better it gets for you (unless you choose extreme ranges like open 15% and stackoff 22+/AJ+).

It's very hard to make more than 3bb on average OOP vs an aggro player, even with a strong hand like AQo, so 3b/call it is.

Thanks falcone, good perspective there. I def felt like the best spot for me to raise was preflop but didnt pull the trigger. I also felt during the time that I didnt want to get bluff raised off my hand thinking it did have decent showdown value against him but also agree now that I could of check raised turn would be a better line or even lead into on the turn.

FYI results AQ was good : ) thanks for the feedback

+ 1

If i chose to play that hand that way (which i wouldnt), I would have looked at him and said "Well, you might not bet the river so...." "I bet about 90% the pot".

I definitely would if he was a sober but floaty bluffy type. Reason being I dont want pocket 44s winning by accident. Vs a drunk, I doubt I fool with it.

+2

...And then when you bust him order a round of shots for both of you (double for him) and tell him to buy back in.

Does villain's raising range change by position? i.e. is an UTG+2 raise stronger than usual? Anyhoo, if this guy truly is raising a lotta hands plus shipping preflop with a hand as weak as AJo, then I'm 3betting big and calling a shove. I might even make the 3bet size really big, like $100, so that I can easily shove any flop.

By just calling, we know we're going to get ourselves into a situation we ended up getting ourselves in, which is potentially calling off multiple streets OOP with A high, which is kinda gross.

GcluelessNLnoobG