H - 30ish white guy. Running good and playing well. Very solid ABC table image. (1100)

V - 50ish white woman. tight pre flop. a little LAGy post. (411)

1/3

only hand of note between us was J 9 9 4 Q. Limped around pre. 6 ways. I had T8 on the button. bet 15 on the flop, she called from the BB. turn C/C. River, she checks. I bet 40, she C/R to 90. I pay her off. She flips over 94 for the turned boat. only big pot I have lost in the last 3 hours.


OTTH


I complete in the SB with 25. V raises out the BB to 12. 4 callers and me

(60)

flop 2 4 6

I check. V bets 40. 4 folds. I call

(140)

2 4 6 7

I check. V bets 60. I call.

(280)

River 2 4 6 7 4

I check. She shoves 299. She looks visibly stiff and won't look at me or talk. I have to get the dealer to count down the bet because V won't talk. Really suprised at the bet. I know she doesn't have a 4. So she either has a boat or air. Just seems far too big of a bet for her to have anything here.

Hero?

fold pre

fold pre to the raise

what do you think she has otr? it's basically a psb. call. Raising 12 out of the blinds after 5 limpers is probably a PP higher than 22, 44 or 66

This hand is just a little too weak for me to complete due to the big RIO on a lot of big second place hands we make; I wouldn't overlimp this on the Button, so I'm definitely not going to play it OOP. I'd also fold to the raise due to the RIO even though we're closing the action.

On the flop we're getting almost 3:1 and probably have 9 outs plus a backdoor flush draw. Our trip outs are well disguised and will probably get paid off, but our gutshot/twopair outs put 4-to-a-straight on board, so can't guarantee getting paid off (which will be made more difficult being OOP). Plus our twopair can still be counterfeited on the river. But I probably call too, even though honestly it's not great.

Easy call on the turn getting great odds and now picking up way more outs. Villain has played her hand face up as an overpair, and getting people to fold overpairs is generally hard, so I wouldn't raise.

Admittedly a weird bet on the river as overpairs typically snap check back here just relieved all the draws busted to win the pot (coupled with a pretty small bet on a drawy turn). Still, even though something does smell a bit fishy, I'd probably still just fold (especially since I can't recall the last time I saw a 50 year woman 4barrel air for 1.3 BIs).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Not crazy about this hand... I wouldn't have completed pre. Not because the odds weren't there - it's just that you are probably never going to have a dominating hand and you'll be forced to play OOP the whole way.... personally I just find that uncomfortable (I'd be more inclined to make a decent raise and try to take it down). When she bets and the rest of the table folds - I'm definitely gone.

As played, the rest of the hand feels like a big suck - where you have marginally enough to keep you at it.

OTR... I agree that the bet is unusual. She goes from betting 2/3 OTF, to <1/2 OTT, and then up to PSB OTR. That definitely could be a hand that c-bet, barrelled weakly, and then somehow saw the paired board as a scare card. Two high cards would not surprise me... OTOH your hand looks like some kind of combo/draw and nothing really got there (unless a 4 was part of your combo).... so she could be really pushing her OP, or bluffing. I'd let it go.

fold pre fold to the raise fold flop fold turn fold river

easy fold on river, flop peel is pretty marginal, once we pick up the diamond draw though c/r or donk-bet is tempting

Fold pre.
Fold pre again.

Flop call is prolly marginal with a gutshot that isn't to the nuts.
Turn call is meh, I think that I'd rather jam actually.
River seems like a fold.
I'm going to lol if you call her and he has 65.

Only c/r if you think she can fold an overpair. The turn makes the most sense to do it for obvious reasons. Other then that I don't mind the initial complete, but definitely fold after the raise pre. Also fold flop, I don't think she's betting into 5 ppl with AK.

fold pre, fold pre, fold flop, c/r turn, fold river

Pre is pure spew and doesn't need to be discussed further.

The villain made a decent cbet into 5 opponents. She rarely has complete garbage. You end the action and the flop misses most of her range. A call isn't terrible. The problem is your two pair and straight outs put a four-straight on the board, making it harder to get paid. I'd probably still fold because I doubt the IO is there and villain really shouldn't cbet into 5 players with overcards. I would fold oop, but would call in this scenario in position.

You shouldn't be in the hand by the turn. Since you are, I'd put in a sizable c/r. She makes <1/2PSB and the 7 almost certainly fails to improve her hand. A pot-size c/r is $320 and you have about $360 effective remaining. I'd bomb it. You have about 44% equity vs. 99+. You should get all non-suited-diamond overcards to fold. Great equity + FE = crai.

Fold the river. Villain almost always has QQ+ here. Perhaps some spazzed AdKd/AdQd. You need to be right 1/3 times to make calling correct. Live read/history is everything. Generally low stakes players aren't betting every street with complete air.

I thought we had 24 bottom boat. disregard everything except fold pre.

this hand is a disaster. If you called and she shows up with AK, you should still not be happy about this hand at all.

Pot seems screwed up. Raise to 12 + 4 callers +you = 72, not 60. On the river, 140 + 60 + 60 = 260, not 280.

I don't hate the preflop action, though I think it's marginal at best. I'd probably complete also, but then I'd fold to the raise. My plan would have been miracle flop, make some money with huge implied odds. Even though the raise is only 9, my implied odds have dropped by a factor of 5 (from ~200:1 to ~40:1)

As GG says, OTF your trip outs are probably pretty good for some extra action, but the 2P and straight outs put out a 4 straight board and you're not likely to get much more. I think the call is again marginal at best.

Flop gives you some more outs (though reducing the number or streets to get value). That's probably the least marginal call.

On the river, what does she think you have? You've done nothing but check and call, so she is pretty unlikely to think you have a set. After all, you didn't lead out or x/r on a pretty wet board. (Yes, the board doesn't hit her range all that hard and you might actually check this to extract more from her overpairs or barreled big cards, but she's probably not thinking on that level.) You might have 2P that she's now outdrawn. You might have an overpair to the board that will get sticky. A LAG could conceivably bluff here.

She could be 3 barreling with something like two big diamonds or even just two big cards, but since she's betting 299 into 260, she has to be on a pure bluff more than half the time and LLSNL V's are unlikely to do that. It's also unlikely she'd shove with just an overpair.

So something unlikely is happening. In cases like this, a lot of effort starts going into figuring out whether it's more unlikely she's barreling or overplaying a big pair. But another unlikely event is that she raised something unexpected preflop. Once you add that, she can actually have some big hands here.

She might be stiff because she's bluffing. She might be stiff because she's betting something other than the nuts and she's afraid it's no good. She might be stiff because that's what she read you're supposed to do.

The most significant information we have is that she bet big on the river. She might be bluffing, but at LLSNL a big river bet is usually a big hand.

To call, you'd need this to usually be a bluff.

Fold.

I agree that if you are at a tough 2/5 table, and you have some hyper LAGs who just constantly bomb away, you are setting yourself up to pay off the dummy end of straights and flushes, but at a fishy 1/3 table, there is little doubt when one of them 'has it'




my thought also. since we are both unknown to each other, it is a bit easier for her to barrel me off something. so I took that into consideration also.

thought about a turn CR all in, but wanted to keep my variance lower and table image cleaner.

so she read me for a pair of dueces and decided to bluff with the best hand?

just included for the LOLs

Exactly, so I would have to put her on 66 or 77 only for her to be value betting this river. Everything else she checks back, or bets some ridiculously valuey bet like 40.

Results

IMO, I think most V's at 1/3 are polarized to 4x or air here with the given action. Boats and Overpairs are betting less IME... She is either representing spazz or spazzing and since there are far more overcards than 4x in her range I expect to see spazz most of the time (weighted toward AK obv because donks often loose their minds with unimproved AK at these stakes and I've seen this line more than once with it)

terrible river call, especially vs a tight 50's white woman.

People hardly ever 3barrel bluff in 1/3 with air, especially unknown tight women. I would have been out of the hand on the turn (that's if I misread my hand twice and called pre).

Horribly played hand. Laughable brag post. Guaranteed to lose $$ playing this way in the long run.

In a limped pot, having position is going to greatly increase our chances of figuring out if someone has it plus we'll have a far easier time controlling the size of the pot.

In this raised pot, the SPR against V is under 6, and if there are smaller stacks (which I'm assuming there is at a typical 1/3 NL game) then we could have SPRs of 3 and 4 here. Not exactly a lot of room to figure out if someone has it.

GimoG

What's more aggro: raising 66/77 out-of-the-blinds preflop for $12 (3% of stacks), or 4 barrelling air for 1.3 BIs?

FWIW, I actually don't hate the hand nearly as much as others. Preflop pretty meh, flop is borderline (but fine, imo), turn is obvious (imo), and on the river I have to give you credit for doing something I don't do enough: going with your read and smelling something wrong. The smallish turn bet on a drawy board plus not checking back the river and instead PSB+ing it just doesn't really seem like an overpair any more, and even weak showdownable overpairs typically just check back hoping they win against a busted draw.

GriverisprobablycloserthanmostthinkG

Does anyone know any home games in
the Delray Beach Florida area?

If I'm calling PF with this hand, then once HU OOP i would frequently Ck-140, shove all turns and enjoy the sweat/get some folds.

AP, the riv call at 2-1 is meh, but I get it. The live read / small turn bet-riv smash generally counts for something and probably now gives her a 50/50 split between the 24 JJ+/16 AK. Of course, the flip side is that a MAWW just bet $300 on the river, and when large bets go in no matter what the line, that tends to be value heavy above anything else.

Fold pre to his raise

In other circumstances where you don't have garbage and invested so much but still have only the bottom pair: Here is what you should do:

If you are OOP and only have bottom pair and have been called on the flop and the turn goes like check/check. Now OTR just expose your hand wide open before your opponent has a chance to act. Don’t check the river, but just open your hand to see what opponent does. If opponent simply threw his hand away without betting take notice. If he bets than you fold.

This would enhance your image risk free, because a foe declining to bet into an exposed hand must be beat but he should have bet into your exposed bottom pair hand. He didn’t .. lol

Some players think I advertise too much. I don’t. You can often establish a profile of opponents inexpensively. Your strategy can be smoke and mirrors. Think about it ... lol

OP, this is like a perfect example of a results oriented confirmation bias. Thank you for posting such a perfect example.

But seriously, making soul reads at the table is fun, but this goes beyond the element of strategy or reads on a villain. While it is true that her bluffing percentage on the river is actually quite high, and far more informative than her flop and turn bets, the individual elements of this hand are essentially "fold pre, fold pre, fold flop, fold turn, maybe think on the river". The fact that she totally spewed a bluff with AK is essentially non-relevant.

And if this is how you play while having a "very solid ABC table image," there is some reevaluation of your game to be done.

Fun little game, but it is worth noting that this is generally against the rules. I'm not saying it'll get you kicked out necessarily but you'd undoubtedly take a penalty in a tournament these days.

This is a cash game forum and most rooms permit exposing your hand when heads up.

Fold preflop. Why calling 2bet with 25s
That dogcrap hand is never good. Making a pair with 25 is never good, Flopping a flush draw is never good. For that garbage 25 you need to flop prefect+perfect+perfect which will almost never happen. Just burning money in the wind. Just fold .. man.., and get it over to the next hand.

Let me tell you a little secret, my friend...
Let's say we playing a special fantasy game where you can ask the dealer to give you two new cards instead the dogcrap 25. Now, the dealers mucks your 25s and give you two new cards. Well, you get Q7o, you don't like them. So, you ask again for two new cards, and he does. Now you got AQ or AJ or AK or QQ or TT... etc ....
How you feel now about villain $12 raise preflop when comes your turn to act?
Would you still call or 3bet him. Would you feel much better?

Did you got the point?
Folding 25 preflop to a raise is the exact/identical situation of my fantasy game.
Folding preflop is playing the fantasy game with a big edge against the average Joe

Oh really? I thought most rooms had gone the way of not allowing it. I mean at Aria they don't let you talk about the hand even heads up. To keep the game "friendly" for the tourists... lol. Haven't been there in a while though.