Avaritia, that's helpful. I think I was thrown by the "re-evaluate" language. I think I understand now that all we're re-evaluating is whether Villain's draw probably got there or not before we get all our chips in the middle.

Am I right that we're getting it all in on any non-club turn?

Yes if she leads with a normal sizing. If she checks I'm betting $100 and hoping for a spazz.

The key here is combinatorics. There are 3 combos of 33, and approximately a gazillion combos of draws. If there are more draws in her range, we are fine flatting and letting her fire a blank turn. If she has a c/r'ing draw, it is likely a monster, and therefore there is no f/e and probably even hand equity, so a shove kind of doesn't accomplish much otf.

There are a lot of ****ty turn cards, clubs I'm folding if she leads obv, and A or 9 isn't that great either.

Nut turn card would be a 3. But really any paired board turn would be sweet. She is hella likely to lead all turn cards after her flop action, which is good for us as we can play semi perfectly in position.

If she has a set then we pay her off...no sweat. If we play this same way a thousand times the amount of times villain donks with a whiffed draw compared to the times the draw hits ott, compared to the times they actually have a set, we are def taking a +EV line.

The biggest error here was the sizing pre.

Thanks bro, that clears up a lot of things.

"The biggest error here was the sizing pre."

Totally agree.

This....exactly this.