Hero has $1400 playing 1/2
V1: An older asian male, but very tight/passive. I've seen him go to showdown twice in the last 30 minutes. The first hand he opens to $10, gets called and 2 spots, then the BB shoves for $200. After tanking for 2minutes V1 calls and tables KK, announcing he thought BB had aces (he wasn't trying to induce a call from the two callers). The second hand, he called my $10 open from the BB in a 4way pot, checks around on a K
6
5
board, turn is a 6
and he check/calls my $20 bet, then check/calls my $50 bet on a 2
river and shows A
6
. IMO that is extremely tight to not raise OTT or OT
V1 has $760 behind
V2 has ~$800 behind, no real reads
V3 has $120 behind and is just there to gamble
V4 No reads, $250 behind
On to the hand...
V2 opens UTG for $15, Hero has 7
7
in MP and calls. V4 calls from the CO, V3 calls from the BTN and V1 calls from the BB
Flop: 2
7
8
(pot $76)
V1 Checks, V2 leads for $60. I think for a minute on whether to raise or flat, and eventually decide to raise to $160 on this draw heavy of a board since im both deep and multi-way, knowing V2 likely has an overpair.
V4 folds, V3 shoves for $105. V1 thinks for about 10 seconds then shoves for $745. V2 looks disgusted and it folds to me.
I tank for a minute before flipping my hand over to show everybody I have a really difficult decision. After 5 minutes of tanking I declare how badly I want to fold, I eventually call, with my thought process being this:
V2 looks very strong leading into 4 players on that flop, so my raise looks insanely strong as well. Once V3 has already shoved for his stack, I feel like there would be no point to be isolating with a huge overshove if he had a hand like 5
6
or 9
Ten
, not to mention he seemed to tight to be shoving there with a combo draw, thought it is possible. So I felt like my range had more combo draws, making me believe the only hands that made sense were 22 and 88 (and possibly 78).
So, if my reasoning is correct, then it's $585 more for me to call to win $1,146, so I have to be good 1/3 of the time, and if his range is 88/22 then I'm good 1/2 of the time, making it profitable. Is that spot on?
I feel like most people would say you can never fold here, but I don't even know if he's shoving 22 there instead of flatting. Additionally, how deep do you have to be and how good of a read on a player do you need before you'd consider folding? (I've yet to fold a set post flop or KK preflop when I felt it was correct given reads/stacks, but I've vowed to at least do one of those things)