Playing a 1/2 nl game. I have TT utg and raise to $10. Older guy in middle pos calls. I face a 3-bet of $20 more from the small blind. effective stacks are $200. What to do?

Here are some of my reads and the reasons I'm asking this question:

The small blind is late 20's early 30's guy who's playing extremely tight. When he showed down hands they were top tier hands. a few hands prior to the hand in question he raised utg w/ JJ and got shoved on by a guy w/ 50bb's who's shoved his stack to a raise about 4 out of the last 15 hands and is looser then most players. When it gets back to JJ guy he sigh's like he's got a tough decision (I don't think it is) puts his chips in like he's making a crying call and say's he'll gamble with the shover.

Another Observation that was interesting was that he looked bored. Extremely bored. When he won a pot he looked even or bored like poker was so ****ing boring! It didn't feel like real boredom. More like posturing. I interpreted it like he was trying to make it look like he had tons of experience but I don't think that was the case.

The older guy raised his good hands but was a loose caller. for example when he was shorter (60 bbs) he called a raise of $15 w/ k7s.


SO with all that being said, lets get back to the hand.

When the sb raises me to $30 bucks total it's $20 for me to call. My read of the situation is that I'm dominated. He's never 3betting with AKs or worst there or 3betting with a pair lower then mine. I'm 95% sure I'm dominated.

Now it's just a simple math question. I know the older guy is calling most of the time when it gets back to him if I call or not. So there's $52 in the pot when it gets to me but if we factor in the fact that the old guys calling 100% of the time my pot odd's are $72 to my $20, or 3.5 to 1.

Do I have the right pot odds/ implied odd to hit a set?

Help please

Getting about 9 to 1 implied odds agaist most likely 2 opponents one of whom likely has QQ+ seems like a good spot to set mine. Dont get out of line on a 9 high flop.

If stacks were deeper I would call based on your read. As the stacks are the implied odds aren't there if you are most likely a 4:1 dog and at best flipping based on your reads. I would call if stacks were ~$400.

I think it is close. Like you said, $52 in pot with $170 behind, so $20 to possibly win roughly 225. Ideally, against this guy, I think it is a fold, as I'd like at least $250, not 170 behind.
And, of course, there is no guarantee he is stacking off if you hit your set.

call,you are in position.since he's a nit,his range is narrow and spr is not that low.you can easily outplay him.if you are just playing to set mine it might not be profitable since he might not stack off every time.

"Easily outplay him"? Are you kidding? We KNOW his range is narrow and that narrow range is almost entirely composed of hands that beat us. You are praying that he has JJ or QQ and will fold on a scary board? Added to that we only have 170 effective stacks after the flop. If the 3rd player in the hand calls, putting 90 in pot, the 3-betting nit most likely leads for around 60-75 leaving 100 behind and you want to "outplay him"?

Why not "outplay him" by making a somewhat difficult, but almost certainly cash-saving, fold?

folding is never bad,but if you want to push ev,you set mine with the intention of making moves(occasionally) on certain flops.since we have the read that he doesnt 3bet AK,we can easily squeeze some value with flatting.

fold...... you are facing a 20 dollar reraise from a 200 stack out of a very very tight player........ this is not our spot... we know we have 2 outs... we are 1/7.5 to flop a set

its actually very close but the lower variance play is a fold... its probably slightly minus ev as this dude probably gets away more often than he should

Anything. Just don't fold

I hope to FSM this doesn't mean you're considering shoving here.

The one thing you have going for you here is SB is OOP, which helps a little to make sure the money goes in(not that it's hard anyway). If effective stacks were a little bigger I call this easily. With $200, it's really borderline.

I really, really wouldn't be trying to "outplay" this nit here, because the only board you can assume he might fear is an Ace, but even in that case you have very little leverage to make him fold anyway unless he's just going to c/f.

If you're certain he nearly always stacks (which you really need to make this a call), you're implicitly assuming he's not folding to "scare boards." If you think he's somehow not committed with an SPR of like 3, he's folding a ton and you don't have setmine odds.

Based solely on your read, it seems to me to be a clear fold. With the other villian in the hand it makes it a million times harder to outplay this guy. Like repping an A if the board comes A 6 4, or whatever. Another thing I would consider is if this guy is really this tight will he stack off if I hit my set? By the way you describe him he could be one of those guys that gets off on making huge lay downs.(you know the guy)

Normally for $20 more and another bum coming in behind I'd make this call. However given the over the top nittiness of vill 1 and the fact that vill 2 never folds, being in between with 10 10 isn't where I wanna be. Dump it and move on.

Decent call spot but you're not doing very well against his range. Maybe AQs+ and JJ+. You say he's very tight and he's in the blinds so it could be AK and QQ+. You do have position on him. If you catch a T you'll very likely stack him. If you have an overpair on the flop, reevaluate based on his 3-bet, c-bet percentage. I'm probably just folding. Don't reward tight players by giving them any action imo.

^^^This. You can't outplay anyone when the SPR is under 4. In LLSNL play, 3bet ranges are tight to begin with, but people's 3bet range varies with the position of the initial raiser. A UTG raise is going to get a lot of respect.

Pretty easy fold. I can guarantee under these circumstances that playing TT for set value only is -EV.

***Grunch***

I would fold my tens in this spot. I'm not as worried about Mr. Loose, but you're looking at a Nitty TAG player that is reraising from the SB, he's likely either got you dominated or is looking to isolate Mr. Loose.

In the former case, you're in big trouble - at best a coin flip, at worst domination. In the latter case he may have loosened up his requirements for an isolation play, but probably not by much.

From your description of the player, you may be looking at an online to live player who is probably adjusting to the pace of live play. Not as inexperienced as you may think - just inexperienced in the live setting.

I'm folding here.

*grunch*

I hate it, but I have to fold here. Your SPR will be too low to do anything but play fairly straightforward postflop. I am slowly weaning myself from playing mid/low PPs in these situations as you don't really have the price to call to set mine (villain won't stack off with QQ on a K-10-3 flop, so we won't always get his stack if we hit), and the stack sizes remove all postflop play.
Fold.

Thanks for the replies!