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Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair

04-22-2023 , 06:15 PM
5/5 Stakes, 8-handed
Hero has around ~$600, Villain covers with a stack of around ~$1200

Villain has no specific reads, Hero shouldn't have any specific reads either (first few orbits in the session)


Hero is in the SB with 88


Limps to the Hero, who raises to $30. Villain in the UTG calls, CO calls, three ways to the flop


Flop:

532


Hero c-bets for $30, Villain reraises to $400. CO folds.


Hero?
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 06:33 PM
Seems like it’s ok to fold here. What do you hope to see that you’re way ahead of?
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 06:45 PM
I don’t mind completing and pure set mining here with a few limpers. Should be a pretty straightforward way to play 88 OOP multi-way.

Raising is perfectly fine. Sizing seems fine depending on how many limpers. If anything always err on the bigger side from the SB. If everyone folds it would be a very good outcome.

We should be checking this flop most of the time. If we are to bet, this sizing is too small. When we have a low betting frequency we should be betting bigger. The purpose of our bet would be to protect against hands like unpaired overcards and hands with some weak draws (strong draws ain’t folding). Also for some value against worse pairs and some draws. I would bet about $55-60 IF I bet. I am mostly checking.

AP this is a snap fold. How can we possibly continue vs this massive raise with a weak overpair? At best we are up against a high equity semibluff.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 06:46 PM
To me, V has one of a few things (below). Since it's early enough there are no reads, seems like a fold.
  • Set
  • A4. Wow, what a flop, let's play for stacks!
  • Overpair, 99 or TT?
  • Some weird semi-bluff like diamonds with the Ad
  • Yay, my 66/77 got all unders! Let's get the pot before anyone catches up!

While the last two are possible, I suppose, it seems like it's one of the first three a lot lot lot more. Caveat: I don't play as high as 5/5, so any introspection I give is likely not what's going on.

I'll be interested to see results, if any.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog
To me, V has one of a few things (below). Since it's early enough there are no reads, seems like a fold.
  • Set
  • A4. Wow, what a flop, let's play for stacks!
  • Overpair, 99 or TT?
  • Some weird semi-bluff like diamonds with the Ad
  • Yay, my 66/77 got all unders! Let's get the pot before anyone catches up!

While the last two are possible, I suppose, it seems like it's one of the first three a lot lot lot more. Caveat: I don't play as high as 5/5, so any introspection I give is likely not what's going on.

I'll be interested to see results, if any.
44 more likely than 66/77 with this sizing.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 08:44 PM
I fold w/out a read. Just not looking to play fir stacks with a weak hand that could be way behind, pots not big enough to gamble
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-22-2023 , 08:58 PM
It’s not like you’re far ahead of his bluffs. Easy fold. JJ would be interesting.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-23-2023 , 04:56 AM
Pure fold here. We are either almost dead, or not doing so well against a combo draw.


Only way I'd call here is if V is known complete maniac or someone drunk who just blasts off every hand.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-23-2023 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
I don’t mind completing and pure set mining here with a few limpers. Should be a pretty straightforward way to play 88 OOP multi-way.

Raising is perfectly fine. Sizing seems fine depending on how many limpers. If anything always err on the bigger side from the SB. If everyone folds it would be a very good outcome.

We should be checking this flop most of the time. If we are to bet, this sizing is too small. When we have a low betting frequency we should be betting bigger. The purpose of our bet would be to protect against hands like unpaired overcards and hands with some weak draws (strong draws ain’t folding). Also for some value against worse pairs and some draws. I would bet about $55-60 IF I bet. I am mostly checking.

AP this is a snap fold. How can we possibly continue vs this massive raise with a weak overpair? At best we are up against a high equity semibluff.
Mostly agree with your assessment. The flop sizing however I think is spot on for OP. It’s a board that favors the callers AND it’s 4 ways oop. We mostly check and sometimes bet small.

We can’t continue vs this size with this hand. We have flush draws, 55, and some 44 we can continue with.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-23-2023 , 01:20 PM
snap fold

i probably check the flop with 100% of range here

yes it caps my range but i think your range is capped as soon as these garbage cards come on the flop

assuming non wild opponents vs. two players in my mind im not putting in more than 50 big blinds in this spot, so to do that i try to keep the pot small by checking

i also think pre is a limp OOP. LP def raise.

Last edited by NittyOldMan1; 04-23-2023 at 01:40 PM.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-24-2023 , 04:46 AM
Trivial fold. Maybe he's a lunatic but lets get a better hand before stacking off.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-24-2023 , 12:09 PM
Pre: How many limpers were there?

Flop: Bet at least 66% to protect our hand. Easy fold to huge raise. More interesting question is what do we do with QQ or KK here? Probably the same fold...but more agonizing.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote
04-24-2023 , 03:09 PM
Just fold. He is going 2.5x pot. Exploitable, but I may just fold range here, unless we have A4 here.

The thing is people aren't doing this as an exploit often enough for us to just take a chance that we might be making a 0 EV decision here as an MDF call when if we are wrong we could be making a -$540 ev play.
Facing a 13x Flop Raise with an Overpair Quote

      
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