Hand came up the other night in a 1/2 game.
Hero is large stack at the table, has been playing what I can only assume other players think is LAG style however it was due to a rush of good starting cards. Hands I've been forced to showdown have been very strong, and I've mucked once or twice without showing.
V is a late middle age lady, not extremely tight but quite passive. She does not usually go to showdown and when she does she usually has a strong hand. Hero and V have played 2 big hands against each other in the past hour, hero stacking her once for 200~, then she rebought 100 and doubled up with a flopped nut flush v hero TPTK (she c/c my Cbet into 3 players, and I bet again on turn thinking she was more likely to be drawing that sitting with a made flush - oops )
Straddled to $5
V (mp) calls
Hero (btn) calls Q
10
SB folds
BB calls
Straddle Checks
Pot: ~20
Flop: A
A
3
Checked to hero
Hero bets $15
BB and Straddle fold
V calls
Turn 4
V checks
Hero bets 35
V thinks for a while then calls
River: 7
V checks
Hero bets $50
V calls
V shows k
4
So it turns out that V had flush draw on the flop, caught a pair on the turn and made her flush on the river. I think that obviously she is calling the flop 100% of the time, but folding whenever she misses the river (she has some game sense, and knows not to chase draws with 1 card to come).
Her call on the turn made me think she was likely on a bad ace, or small pair (maybe pocket pair). I thought a reasonable sized (fake) value bet would have lots of fold equity vs V, who has shown modest ability to fold hands. Additionally, since I had discounted the possibility of flush draw due to her calling the turn, I figured the 3rd spade has become a very good bluff card, as it is an overcard (albeit an unlikely one for me to hold) to most of her 2p hands.
Additionally I had not been caught bluffing yet in this session, although had started with a rush of cards where I made almost 2 BI in 45 minutes, and also mucked some cards in big pots (where I was in fact very strong but had the choice to show or muck and I mucked)
Is this line +EV? Or just spewing chips? She obviously had trapped me before with the nuts and I doubled her through, but in this case my ego wants me to think she just was fortunate enough to improve on every street.