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Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Is this +EV to 3- barrel?

03-27-2014 , 04:14 PM
Hand came up the other night in a 1/2 game.

Hero is large stack at the table, has been playing what I can only assume other players think is LAG style however it was due to a rush of good starting cards. Hands I've been forced to showdown have been very strong, and I've mucked once or twice without showing.

V is a late middle age lady, not extremely tight but quite passive. She does not usually go to showdown and when she does she usually has a strong hand. Hero and V have played 2 big hands against each other in the past hour, hero stacking her once for 200~, then she rebought 100 and doubled up with a flopped nut flush v hero TPTK (she c/c my Cbet into 3 players, and I bet again on turn thinking she was more likely to be drawing that sitting with a made flush - oops )

Straddled to $5
V (mp) calls
Hero (btn) calls Q10
SB folds
BB calls
Straddle Checks

Pot: ~20

Flop: AA3
Checked to hero
Hero bets $15
BB and Straddle fold
V calls

Turn 4
V checks
Hero bets 35
V thinks for a while then calls

River: 7
V checks
Hero bets $50
V calls

V shows k4

So it turns out that V had flush draw on the flop, caught a pair on the turn and made her flush on the river. I think that obviously she is calling the flop 100% of the time, but folding whenever she misses the river (she has some game sense, and knows not to chase draws with 1 card to come).

Her call on the turn made me think she was likely on a bad ace, or small pair (maybe pocket pair). I thought a reasonable sized (fake) value bet would have lots of fold equity vs V, who has shown modest ability to fold hands. Additionally, since I had discounted the possibility of flush draw due to her calling the turn, I figured the 3rd spade has become a very good bluff card, as it is an overcard (albeit an unlikely one for me to hold) to most of her 2p hands.

Additionally I had not been caught bluffing yet in this session, although had started with a rush of cards where I made almost 2 BI in 45 minutes, and also mucked some cards in big pots (where I was in fact very strong but had the choice to show or muck and I mucked)

Is this line +EV? Or just spewing chips? She obviously had trapped me before with the nuts and I doubled her through, but in this case my ego wants me to think she just was fortunate enough to improve on every street.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 04:23 PM
Your line isnt +ev.

If she limps suited garbage pf regardess of position (as you have seen already), you should be raising-iso more in position and cbet most flops. That is how to extra max from loose weak players who plays post flop weak tight (since you say she only shows down big hands).

As played, once she calls that flop I am completely shutting down and not putting a cent more into the pot, since I have pretty much zero backdoor equity and maybe only reverse implied odds.

Bluff on the river there is so spewy. Shes not folding an ace and flush draw got there. You arent folding out anything with $50 when the pot is over 130.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 04:30 PM
Raise pre.

Taking a stab on the flop isn't the worst but I'm shutting down once I get called by a passive, calling type. River seems a bit spewy as her range is so heavily weighted with Ax or spades and she's never ever folding either of them to that bet.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 04:33 PM
On a paired Ace board more then one stab is usually just burning money. For the most part, just check/fold this kind of board if you don't have something strong or a good draw. This is a good situation for one bet on the flop though, because nobody has shown any strength and you can represent some sort of garbage ace. Give up when your called, your usually facing a hand that is never folding.

Raising preflop is better with a weak but barely better then average hand from the button. You want to thin the field as much as possible so your c-bets are more likely to work and you can represent a stronger hand.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 04:42 PM
it was incredibly obvious he has an ace or a flush draw, why did u 3barel lol

maybe on a blank river it wouldve been ok, but still- bad

also raise pre to 25. q10o on the button is a good hand to iso with
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 05:35 PM
Raise or fold pf, don't call. That's the biggest mistake that caused all the others. As played, a bet is fine of the flop, but once it is called, you're done with the hand.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 06:11 PM
Thanks for the replies. Didn't realize this is so obvious a hand.

TBH I thought she was weak and capable of laying down most 2p hands, possibly a bad ace if I show enough strength, and was unlikely to hold FD after calling turn bet.

Raising pre I had considered but decided against for some reason. Still shaking the rust off my game after very sparse play the past couple of years.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 06:36 PM
I agree with the above, also when you're trying to boss the table around like this, you have to consider your image.

To be fair, in this case there are a couple of factors to consider. You're winning, which tends to make people afraid of you and more likely to fold to your bluffs.

However if they think you are lagging it up, they are more likely to call you down light, and more likely to take a passive, trappy line like this, hoping to have you value-own yourself.

I think this lady had your number, starting the first time you value-towned yourself. Now, you have to get her stack the usual way, by value-betting the living daylights out of her.

Sometimes when you bet, you need to have the goods. And I think that, even at 1/2, sometimes you need to have nothing. Question is, what proportion of the time should you be betting air? In 1/2, where people tend to be passive and cally, it's real easy to bluff too often. This is a losing proposition for a number of practical and theoretical reasons.

We talk about how stupid the fish are; I am as guilty of that as anyone. But people actually aren't really that stupid. Make sure your lines don't violate common sense. Remember, you don't win because people are stupid. You win by astutely exploiting flaws in their playing style. There's a difference.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-27-2014 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
On a paired Ace board more then one stab is usually just burning money. For the most part, just check/fold this kind of board if you don't have something strong or a good draw. This is a good situation for one bet on the flop though, because nobody has shown any strength and you can represent some sort of garbage ace. Give up when your called, your usually facing a hand that is never folding.

Raising preflop is better with a weak but barely better then average hand from the button. You want to thin the field as much as possible so your c-bets are more likely to work and you can represent a stronger hand.
+1

Firing on two streets with air on a paired board, especially aces, is lighting money on fire.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-28-2014 , 02:11 AM
Raise pre or fold. Isoing weak passive face up players is definitely +EV

As played check flop give up.

After she calls the turn, she definitely has a hand. Betting the riv is spew
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-28-2014 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joaks14
Thanks for the replies. Didn't realize this is so obvious a hand.

TBH I thought she was weak and capable of laying down most 2p hands, possibly a bad ace if I show enough strength, and was unlikely to hold FD after calling turn bet.

Raising pre I had considered but decided against for some reason. Still shaking the rust off my game after very sparse play the past couple of years.
She IS capable of that, but you're narrowing her range down too much. Keep in mind the hands that call your flop bet (flush draws, boats and Ax's.) Narrow it down from there. Also, weak aces aren't really folding flop or turn. Weak aces put you on the flush draw most of the time. Weak aces are likely to raise/shove turn. You have virtually zero equity after flop. Also, how do you plan on pushing a weak ace off of the flop when you limp on the button? How do you expect them to give you credit for a strong ace when you aren't raising pre? Raise pre, cbet flop. Anything bets after are spewtard imo.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-28-2014 , 02:08 PM
Thanks for the replies. Went back to casino last night and managed to keep my chips, as well as a few other people's.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote
03-28-2014 , 06:13 PM
Agree with most. Raise pre. One and done flop cbet. You could also choose to under bluff river if a spade does not come in order to fold out flush draws that are ahead of you.
Is this +EV to 3- barrel? Quote

      
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