1/3 NLHE 9 handed.

Table is 1am on a Saturday night. The game sucks, two asian rocks sat down on my left and everyone is nit peddling. Stacks are 200-500. No one is 3-betting ever. People are limp calling with AK, JJ and so on. Why am I even here vibes.

V - one of the aforementioned nit/rocks. He's not a total nit but he's very snug. He wins at 1/3, not sure about 2/5. He's probably a 5 BB/hr player. He's not creative enough and plays too ABC post. That said, he can trap, understand odds, and read the board. His stack barely ever moves until either A) he's gutted by a fish who called him pre with 74os and flopped trips or B) he doubles up through someone with AQ when they had KQ and the flop came Q_X_Y type deal. 400$. MP.

H - Vs image of me is that I'm reckless, bluffy and overplay my hands. I'm far laggier than he is and win more money because of it but also yo-yo my stack a lot more. (I'm not actually LAG I just have no problem opening hands like K9s OTB over 3 limps). 400$. SB.

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Folds to V who opens 12, folds to H who makes it 40 with A K, V calls. HU OOP.

Flop 80 - A T 6

H checks, V checks

Turn 80 - K

H bets 40, V calls

River 160 - T

Hero?

Why are you 3betting pre against this Villain? You seemed to imply that every hand you want him to show up with in this spot is something he would not open with.

Don't play this time of day. Go home or ask for a table change.

I would 3! and cbet the flop. This guy probably has AQ/AJ in his range. As played, if you don't think he bluffs much, bet/fold the river. Without reads, I would check/reevaluate.

Okay maybe I made it unclear. He's not a 80 year old 0.2% VPIP nit. He's "snug". He has all these BWs AJs, AQo/s, KQs, KJs, KTs, 99...mayyybe 88 here pre. I'm just saying he's a fairly tight opener by our game's standards. He doesn't have A5s or KTo ever.

OOP against this V, I like flat calling pre, for pot control and deception. It's good to have some stronger hands in our flat calling range.

Flop I just check-call. Turn I donk lead for full pot. River we can bet big, over pot, to polarize.

As played, I think we should bet bigger on turn, and bet river big, hoping to get called by worse AX.

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Flatting pre seems pretty bad vs basically anyone but especially here with a strong hand vs someone who isn't going to put enough money in behind postflop. Sounds like this guy plays pretty bad and you want to build bigger pots pre vs weak opponents.

Flatting pre would be criminal. That's some bad advice. Just 3bet pre and cbet flop. As played, bomb the river.

I don’t see why we would do anything other than bet-fold 80% pot on the River.

Mandatory cbet on this flop, bet setting up a river shove on the turn, its a crime that you reach the river and the pot is only $160 so you can't get stacks in in a favorable runout.

As played, I would bet fold river.

The argument in favor of flatting is insane. AKs is the third best hand in the game blocking the two best ones. The 3bet set up a nice 4.5 SPR which is ideal of getting stacks in on top pair. This is like, basic stuff.

Even a against an 4-5% PFR, AKs is a good 3bet and snug doesn't mean that V is PFRing less than 10%.

3b pre looks good. C betting flop almost always, like $40. While we are mostly targeting AQ/AJ for 3 streets of value, you'll get a call or two from pocket pairs

Hmm yea thanks for the advice.. espcially Overtly and the sizing stackoff SPR thing. In hindsight I think I actually should have used my bluffy image to just go thick against this guy. I could even have sized up OOP and maybe gone pot OTF and pot AI OTT. He's hero'd me down before with A-high because he never believes me. That said I didn't like the runout so much. I felt he has a lot of TX by the river in the way we get here (because I checked flop and bet half OTT his range is somewhat wider and doesn't just have AX). I felt dumb like I let QJ get to the turn, KTs, JTs ..etc etc. So I decide to play it as a x/call OTR for reasonable sizing.

Result:

Pot sized bet on the flop is a mistake, because this is a flop you bet the whole of your range. You want a cheap price for your bluffs and also since the board is good for you, you want to give villain a difficult decision with hands that may continue vs a small bet like gutshots, underpairs and small Axs.

dont think c/c makes that much sense since i doubt described villain bets ax for value or turns kx / qq / jj into a bluff otr. also sort of doubt he has too much tx, i see at most 12 combos (t9ss, jtss, qtss, ktss and a good amount of these should / will fold turn) out of idk 40 that get to the river? if you c/c its to pick off bluffs from diamonds which i think is incredibly few combos overall - 98, 87. fwiw, and its hard to get good sample bc this is 0% node we've gone down, ip has trips+ 20% of the time most commonly with a straight which i feel its unlikely this particular v has much when he flats turn) the actual breakdown of hands for ip is ~40% tp, 6.5% trips, 8% straight, 5.5% fullhouse and revolves around him having no raising range ott which i feel like is probably not the case.

flop supposed to eb range bet here by these positions and i see absolutely no reason to alter that vs this guy. solver will block river if it gets here this way which makes sense - block calling range, and want to get value from middle of his range

is pretty hard for me to see a world where i would ever flat this preflop

If you play this V the way everyone is suggesting, 3B'ing pre, and c-betting the flop, when we'll be OOP, we're either going to end up in a chop (best case), or lose big.

If you slow play this hand until the turn, then bomb it, and bomb it again on the river, there's a chance V folds, believing we got there with TT, KT, or QJ.

There's no point in playing aggro on early streets when we're OOP against rocks. They tend to be sticky on early streets, and over-fold marginal value on later streets.

You need to just straight up quit poker if you think AKs isn't a 3bet pre here.

V's a rock who opened from MP. Yeah, we can flat call here from the SB. If we start out with a more aggro line, when we're OOP against a rock, we're just making it easy for him to play perfectly.

If we just flat call, we can continue to call if he c-bets, or possibly check-raise, or otherwise take the lead on a later street. But if we 3B pre, and see this ace-high flop, V is just going to fold everything worse than TPTK, and only continue with better.

If V was some aggro wannabe GTO kid who was RFI'ing >30% of hands from every position, and calling 3B's light, I'd be all for 3B'ing AKs here. But V was described as playing snug, and so we shouldn't expect him to be out of line.

Just look at how V played this - no 4B pre, no bet when hero checks to him on the ace-high flop, despite flopping TPTK, no raise on the turn, when he makes top 2 and hero bets 1/2 pot when the BDFD appears, and he only bets 1/2 pot on the river when hero feigns weakness with a check.

This guy is never paying us off with a worse hand if we 3B pre. What's the point of having a read on V if we're not going to make an exploitative adjustment to how he plays?

Bet $75. These nits arn't hanging on with 10x and might think its a chop.