I think the standard for set mining is 15-1 stack to call ratio but it would need to be even higher with the possibility that this happens. I wouldn’t mind a snug fold.

pre really is the most clear call

no need for math, you are getting good odds with good hand vs sf nit fish and ip deep vs maniac. yeah nit number 2 is going to backraise some amount but idk man you are printing when you see the flop. like if you are talking about sims or what u think set mining percentages are, im not sure you understand where the money comes from in poker

if you think calling 45 more with 99 is "bad" can you estimate how much you think it's losing? or is it just a binary this is terrible you lose 100% of your call

I don’t think it’s bad necessarily, I think it’s close. Most of the time (88%?) we lose 45 and 12% we probably average a few hundred. Maybe more, I’m not great at estimating EV based on future actions.

Then there’s the EV of when nit jams and maniac acts.

i think if its close u should do it since some amount of the time the maniac blunders 550 into u postflop

My initial reaction was that it was a massive punt, like losing $25 on the $45 call.
After reading a few replies and seeing subs reasoning/plans/reads, I'm much less against it ... would guess it's closer to -$8 to +$8 call long term vs. fold, depending on how well you play. It's still going to be high variance and I think most people will have a binary opinion of how good it was after the fact based on how it turns out.

Like if you ever hit a set and don't get 550 from someone, I'd go back to my original opinion. The problem is this kind of spot happens so infrequently you'll never know, for sure. Also still not convinced calling 22 is just as good as calling 99.

There is some image value in calling along too.

Maybe, the problem is if he's punting 550 when we hit a set he's also "punting" 550 in when we don't ... which happens a lot more often.


I will also say that this seems like a very GG spot, where he's going to have a lot more experience than most of the people in the thread both pre. and post (incl. me) ... and he thinks it's meh. So all the people still saying "lol, snap call" ask yourself why you think you'll be playing a low SPR multiway spot better than GG.