Folks I've hit a bit of a downswing since the beginning of the year. While I've been through these before, this one is starting to get to me. in 14 sessions I've won 7 lost 7. And I'm down 3.5 buy ins over 71 hrs. I'm really trying to analyze my play to see if its my decisions or just variance. Here is an example of a hand I played yesterday. Any thoughts are appreciated.

1/3 table is tighter than most 1/3 games. For example on the SB I have been dealt AA, QQ and JJ. All three times it folded all the way to me. In this particular hand I'm on the BTN. Hero has $400. V1 about $200 and V2 about $400. I'm dealt Qd 10d.

V1 UTG limps. V2 raises to $15. Hero calls, V1 calls.

Flop ($45) 9d 10s kd. V1 check, V2 bets $15, Hero calls V1 calls.

Turn ($90) As. V1 check, V2 bets $50. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets are welcome as well as any advice on what I should be doing during this losing streak.

I would fold pre, and I would fold ott. If for instance UTG raised and got 3 or 4 callers then I would flat on the button. He's shallow, so I don't like calling to play fit or fold (as I hardly ever do unless it was worth it such as a set mine or a multiway hand with at least a few callers).

You're "losing streak" isn't really that bad. It's quite common to go through these types of drawdowns (being down 3.5 buy ins in 14 sessions is nothing) but according to this hand you might be calling too much pre which often gets us in these kinds of spots and you're probably gonna get other people saying "I'm never folding, we have position" so that's just me.

I would suggest that a downswing is a time to look for spots to tighten up. Preflop fold- tho we have the button and maybe good implied odds, it is also a 5x raise and you are going to be sandwiched if the blinds or limper call. You said the table is tight so the pfr likely has a premium hand. Change tables if possible.


The flop is a tempting one to raise but I think the call is probably better unless the pfr is a mubsy type who will give up initiative with a set.
Turn is more marginal since some of your J outs are chopping, but on the plus side AQ can't cooler you anymore.

All in on flop

.

Allin for 9x pot?

Sure why not. Can’t ever be dead. Worst case your like 35%. Plus gives good image.

If the table is tight like that, I'd try to find a better table. Otherwise, I might start raising wider from every position.

This hand, the call pre seems fine. I'd be very tempted to raise flop to take control of the betting. If we did that, not sure about what to do on turn. It'll depend on reads and any tells we picked up. Probably just checking back to realize against the V's in this game, and giving up if we don't improve on the river.

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If that is your definition of a equilibrium changing downswing feel lucky. That level of downswing is like losing AA to KK in a 50bb pot. It's almost like a win.

I'm OK with the call on BTN, but I might raise sometimes depending on opponents and how sticky everyone is. I raise the flop, too.

As played, fold is fine.

Down 3.5 BIs in 71 hours is nothing lol. 7 wins 7 losses? I once ran up 10 BIs in about 4 sessions ~25 hours only to lose it in 3 sessions.

Preflop can go either way with the limper, calling is fine though.

I strongly prefer a flop raise. You very likely don't have the best hand here with your middle pair, middling kicker but you have loads of equity and you can represent most of the big hands. If a brick hits and you face a big bet what's your plan? As played, I hate life on the turn, probably folding now.

And it's true that the downswing is frustrating but doesn't necessarily mean you're doing anything wrong.

A buyin is 100bb? So -$1k in 70 hours? As others said that's a minor correction in most games.


On to the hand...

WHERE IS _V2_?

At this table you probably want to just fold anyway, but it matters a lot if V2 is UTG+1 or CO.

On the flop it depends on what I think of V2's bet of 1/3 pot ... does he just often have Kx and isn't folding much, or is it possible the small bet is weak. I raise if I think it's a random cbet and probably sigh call flop if it's stronger, because I doubt he's folding.

On the turn I think about it a lot. Betting again is a lot stronger and he's betting half pot now, would assume strong hands like strong Ax/Kx (with straight draws), flopped straights or NFD that hit top pair on the turn. Would try not to beat myself up too much for calling, but it's not a great spot on any river.


Not usually a fan of Grimstard's street poker, but shoving flop is kind of viable ... we risk a lot to win a little, but we also get a lot of folds or are doing okay. The big thing is if we aren't always "bluffing" when we do it we need to make sure we do it with all QJs which feels like a waste (maybe TT without Td and all QJs that isn't QdJd).

Given how tight the game is, I wonder if it could make sense to 3bet this hand preflop. I'd probably just end up calling, though. As played fold turn. And yeah an even W/L split and -3.5 buyins over 71hr is basically fine lol

I'd probably 3bet or fold mostly pf, but if the blinds and UTG are very fishy I think a call is ok.

I would call the turn.

Re: Downswing

I don't mean to trivialize your experience, but 7w/7L and down 3.5bi overall is literally almost nothing. You're basically at equilibrium. It's the equivalent of losing like 2 hands in blackjack and saying you're on a downswing.

There's that saying, "If you play long enough you will run worse than you ever thought possible."

I've heard this saying tossed around for years, but I would say a lot of poker players (myself included) probably don't really understand what that means. When it comes to downswings our imaginations tend to be quite limiting to what we've already experienced.

It's not just a few bad beats or even a few bad sessions.

The best way I can describe how it feels is it's when all of the worst things results wise combine into every session continuously for a seemingly endless amount of time. So at least weeks if not months or maybe a year which is kind of horrifying/depressing to think about.

It's when:
-When you have premiums in the blinds everyone folds to you.
-You're on the wrong side of every cooler.
-You constantly run AK, QQ+ into AA/KK and never suck out.
-You lose literally half the times or even more when you have AA/KK vs worse hands aipf.
-They hit every draw vs your Overpairs/sets
-Someone flops, turns or rivers a set or trips or two pair on you every time you have an overpair.
-You never hit any of your draws.
-They hit their flush every time you have a set and the board never pairs
-Every time you hit your flush the board pairs and you're always up against FH.
-All your bluffs get called
-All your bluff catches are wrong
-You constantly get shown bluffs after you fold
-You lose the most bizarre hands where they runner runner you.
Stuff like top set losing to bottom pair kind of beats multiple times a day every day.
-Getting in the nut flush draw vs a worse flush draw and losing.

The list is endless but you get the idea.

Basically stuff you thought really couldn't even happen occurring at a frequency that has you questioning your sanity.

This is kind of difficult to experience live because it plays so slowly and the hands get spread out. Generally you're only going to get so many bad beats or coolers in any given session. It will typically just be two maybe three big hands that were 70/30 or 80/20 at worst.

But from what I can gather the above is quite routine to experience for pretty much every player ever who has put in any significant volume at all.

All this to say personally I don't know what a good way to deal w/ it is as I'm in the middle of one myself and am probably one of the worst ever at being able to deal w/ it mentally. It has me about to quit altogether.

But yeah strategy wise all you can do is try to look at your decisions objectively and not let it affect your play in the end.

It would really depend on the player who raised and if he's tight it's more of a reason to fold, not 3bet but if he was very wide pre then there might be a case for it especially if he calls a lot pre then folds otf/t.

Results. I ended up calling the turn. Consensus is I should just fold. River bricked and I let it go.

As played call turn, you are getting direct odds vs a lot of hands.

Flop check call or check raise are fine. Your hand is massive.

Preflop folding is probably best. It is hard to profitably cold call a 5x raise from the button in a raked game. What position is v2?

Your EV calling pre is probably close to 0, probably somewhere in the realm of -0.1BB to 0.1bb. So it is not a huge mistake. Your flop and turn decisions are fine and are +EV. So like, on average your preflop decision is probably winning or losing you $0.30 or less, and on average the flop and turn are winning you a small amount. But because of variance, a significant portion of the time you are going to lose. Here you lost $70, but on average you won't lose $70 because the times you will win offset some of the losses. You never made a $70 EV mistake within the hand.

Also, 3.5 buy ins isn't really a downswing. I am currently down 16k over the last 83 hours and my normal buy in is 2-3k. At 71 hours I was down 25k. It didn't help that I rebought for 5k twice in a big game and ended up losing 12k that day. This is just in February of this year. I am actually up for the year 9k.

I know another pro that is on a 45k downswing for 2024 and his normal buy in is also 2-3k, but he also will buy deeper when there are deep stacked recreational players. And that guy cleared something in the realm of 300k playing full time all of 2023.

A 20 buy in downswing is something that will happen to anyone playing poker long enough no matter how good you are. Variance is a heartless mother.

You will go on more downswings the higher you go up because your competition is better. At 1/3 i've been able to fold KK pre flop because they guy never 3bets anything other than AA (they cold call AK and QQ) but vs better players you could never fold that hand pre.

71 hours isn't even 2 weeks of playing live poker.

Looks like the QT hand was played fine by me.