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double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5

05-20-2012 , 11:59 PM
MP limps, hijack limps, hero on button makes it 20 with 45d. MP is pretty abc maybe a little loose. Hijack is aggro w/ hoodie, sunglasses and he has made some big bluffs (at least one highly questionable imo). Villains have about 600 each and hero has them covered. Hero is nitty.

the 2 limpers call so pot is 52.
flop 2d 6d 8c

MP bets 45, hijack calls, and hero?

Would you raise here? Hero as played makes it 160 (small?) and MP folds. Hijack goes all-in after thinking a few seconds.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 12:36 AM
Interesting hand. I prob either overlimp or raise more PF with 2 limpers, but meh.

Why is pot $52? You have $11 rake that comes on flop? Pot should be 60 (3x20) plus blinds, minus rake.

I prob flat the flop bet, or shove, tbh. I don't wanna re-open the betting in this situation, because if anyone ships, we are in a horrible spot. I prefer to maximize FE, or take our good odds. Since the shove would be huge, I prob just flat.

AP, raising to 160 is a bit small. Pot is $147 before your call (your flop #s), $192 after, and your raise is $115, so between 1/2 and 2/3. Not redic small, but a bit.

AP, pot is about $425 before HJ shoves for $460 more. I think we have to fold here. We don't really have the odds to call a PSB, since many of our outs are likely dirty if V is semi-bluffing. Good chance he has higher diamonds here.

Well, color me wrong. I gave V all the sets, and connecting diamonds from 78-TJ, plus one air hand (77) and you have 40% equity against that range. Dead money makes this a call if you agree with that range.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 12:52 AM
30-40 preflop

I prob don't raise flop because stacks are too awkward to put the last bet in and have any real FE.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 12:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Well, color me wrong. I gave V all the sets, and connecting diamonds from 78-TJ, plus one air hand (77) and you have 40% equity against that range. Dead money makes this a call if you agree with that range.
This. Was honestly shocked when you said to fold 2 paragraphs earlier. This hand is playing the same as an open ended, straigh-flush draw at this point, as a double gutter only really matters when hands aren't all in on the flop or turn. You have a ton of equity and you have outs if he has a higher flush draw.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 01:34 AM
More pre 30-35. Also im going with a shove here for balance purposes
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 02:22 AM
raise size OTF is perfect as it reps an overpair/set

as for the shove I would fist pump call

you have so much equity against anything other than 79dd or A8dd or Axdd

snap call
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 02:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menton
MP limps, hijack limps, hero on button makes it 20 with 45d. MP is pretty abc maybe a little loose.
God I hate this read...

Seriously, what the hell are you even saying? It would be better if you gave a clear example on a hand he played that sticks in your mind that best represents him.

In any event, i've gone back and forth over this several times thinking....

and I think we just got out played and should just fold and readjust against V.

Its hard to think V is doing this with something like 77, 99, A8 type hands...

Its more like he has AJdd or a set and both crush us.

I'd also try to note how he plays OOP. Does he donk bet and c/r a lot? Does he play fit or fold?

Just feels like your read isn't worth a damn vs this guy which impacts how we should play this hand.

Edit: FWIW, as played, not bad, I can get behind your line and the raise reps a very strong hand. But either V has us crushed or V just has super big brass balls and is making one helluva move...

Last edited by dgiharris; 05-21-2012 at 02:57 AM.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 02:57 AM
$30 pre if you're going to raise

doubt you're only making it $20 with a big pair

I raise/stack-off on the flop

If we had the bare nfd I'd be happy with calling, but with a lot of possible non-nut outs and 5-high I'm playing this more aggressively
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 03:12 AM
I think our hand looks better than it actually is. If V has two overs and a diamond draw our equity is horrendous

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.000 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 6d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.687% 08.69% 00.00% 86 0.00 { 5d4d }
Hand 1: 91.313% 91.31% 00.00% 904 0.00 { Ad9d }
but, if V has a set, we're actually ahead on the flop

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.000 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 6d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.576% 67.58% 00.00% 669 0.00 { 5d4d }
Hand 1: 32.424% 32.42% 00.00% 321 0.00 { 6h6s }
---
hmmmm.... maybe we should call???

Well, if we merge the two ranges, 50% sets, 50% FD with overs...

putting them both together we end up with...

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,980 games 0.000 secs 396,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 6d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.131% 38.13% 00.00% 755 0.00 { 5d4d }
Hand 1: 61.869% 61.87% 00.00% 1225 0.00 { 6h6s, Ad9d }
---
Well, if we have 38% equity we need 1.63:1 on our money.

So, pot is $677, there is about $420 behind so that gives us 1.61:1 on our money

Guess its right on the line if we assume V has a set or FD in equal proportions but V should have more combos of FD than sets....

But, if you can put overpairs in V's range then I guess you can call here...

hmmmm..... I guess you can make the case that we can call, though to me it feels like a bit of a stretch. .

Last edited by dgiharris; 05-21-2012 at 03:30 AM.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 03:26 AM
Don't like pre flop.
I would flat the flop donk bet. We have position, multiway pot with a disguised hand with ton of equity vs a polarized range.
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
I think our hand looks better than it actually is. If V has two overs and a diamond draw our equity is horrendous
How did you mess up so badly?

Did it not occur to you that it's impossible for 5d4d to be under 9% vs another flush draw (where a pair can win for us)?

You gave both hands a flopped flush...

We're 37% vs Ad9d.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
but, if V has a set, we're actually ahead on the flop.
Sure we'd be ahead if we already had the flush... We're 41% vs a set.

I expected a little more common sense. Did the calcs really not look off to you?
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
How did you mess up so badly?

Did it not occur to you that it's impossible for 5d4d to be under 9% vs another flush draw (where a pair can win for us)?

You gave both hands a flopped flush...

We're 37% vs Ad9d.


Sure we'd be ahead if we already had the flush... We're 41% vs a set.

I expected a little more common sense. Did the calcs really not look off to you?
Opps

I'm watching TV while posting and its late and I just finished a few hits of blow while a hooker is sucking me off so yeah, sorry, a little distracted and completely screwed that up .

So yeah, sorry, messed that up, going to bed now but just throwing in the correct board, then yeah, we have the equity to make the call
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote
05-21-2012 , 03:30 PM
OK, there is 67 after preflop betting.

The villain shows a3d for nut flush.

What do you think of his flop all-in reraise? He's "putting me on a flush draw too". After he just calls 45 and then reshoves, isn't he screaming semibluff. Isn't his fold equity a little slim? Remember he has bluffy image (especially with MP donk bettor, it turns out).
double gutshot with low flush draw 2/5 Quote

      
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