My first post so if this is the wrong spot or I'm doing something wrong let me know please. Thanks for any help with this.
Loose player in EP raised 3x to 1200 in tourney play. All fold to me in the CO, I hold AQo and raise to 3600 and EP calls. Flop comes A 9 J (r) and EP goes all in for 7000 more. I put opponent on A10+ . (Pot is 400 + 200 + 3600 + 3600 + 7000 = 14800) I don’t put him on trips, 10Q,QQ, KK, AA because of the way the hand has been played. With 10Q he would not raise out of EP and call my re-raise. I have a tight aggressive image. With JJ, QQ, KK, AA he likely would go all-in after my re-raise pre-flop. His Equity with A10 is 26%, AJ is 83% AK is 85%. So his overall equity is 64% I think. My equity would then be 36%.
.36(14800) - .64(7000)
5328 – 4480 = 848 Positive EV to call
Is this even close to right?
First you may want to put this in the tourney strat threads listed under tournament poker. You are also gonna want to distinguish what is the buy in, if your in the money, etc.
I don't see why he can't have 99 or JJ in this case either. I would also lean against him having a10. So at best case you are chopping (he has AQ) and at worst you are crushed by sets, two pair, and ak.
Thks Rusty, Buy-in $60 plus rebuy/addon. This was right before the hour long rebuy time period ended and he had re-bought twice. Only 11 plyrs in the tourney on one table and 9 still in at this point. I had him covered plus 4T left back knowing I would add-on the additional 5000 chips after the break if I lose here. I did lose, I called, he showed AJ and the turn and river were blanks. Looking back it was a really bad call, at the table I remember it going thru my head that he would do this with Ace weak kicker. (It was a wrong thought and I should have known that) Doing my post game evaluation I realize how bad this call was but when I did the EV on the play it came out positive and I just can not believe that's right. Thks for the guidance and I will remember to put this in the tourny forum next time.
2) As others noted, this should go in tournament strat, and ICM plays into this, not just effective stacks. That said, let's treat this like cash.
3) If you are confident that his range is AT+, you have 42.4% equity. He has less possible combos of AJ, since a jack is out as well as the ace, so you can't weight AJ in evenly with AT and AK. Also, you forgot to include AQ for the chop.
This means that (if you buy this range) you will win 14800 42.4% of the time and lose another 7K 57.6% of the time. You set the EV calc up correctly, but with the given range your EV is 6275-4032 for a positive EV of 2,243.
All that said, I think we need to add sets into his range and discount AT to suited only. Against that range, you only have 25.2% equity. Doing this the simple way, we check if 7K is more, or less than 25.2% of the total pot. If it is more, you are overpaying. If less, you are priced to call (again, given that this were cash, in a tourney other factors come into play). The total pot is 21,800 if you call, and 7K is 32% of that, so you are not getting the right price against this range.
On the other hand, this is assuming that he only ever has value hands here. If you add KK that he turned into a bluff into that range, you are back up to 32% equity and are getting the price you need.
After reading that he'd already re-bought twice, I think we can definitely have some AT, A9s, and other crap in his range enough to make this a call, given no significant ICM considerations.
