Quote:
Originally Posted by Kler
This seems mostly in line with what I said. But if we raise flop, get called and check back turn, the pot size on the river will be something comprable to what it would be if we just call flop and turn. We've taken control of the betting, but our ability to truly pot control is limited. In the end he'll fold his worse hands, and call or maybe raise with better. We'll lose a similar amount when we're behind as just calling, but possibly win less when we're ahead if he would have continue to bet hands that fold to a raise.
Denying equity however is indeed advantage.
I do see the value of raising when we have worse hands like KQ/KJ etc and can get better hands to fold, but with no history I consider that a different situation. In that case we're basically turning our hand into a bluff in a spot where we rarely have the best hand. In this case w/ AQ we may often have the best hand, and no better hands are folding. If we had history with this villain then I'd be more inclined to play our range and include AQ among hands we raise. Without history the value of raising becomes more marginal.
It's important not to be overly results oriented when judging the merits of each action we could take. One way to do that is to set aside what we had and what we find out V had, and just look at the configuration and actions, the way the hand actually played, and thinking about how the best (or alternatively, worst) hands in our range could be played.
Could we raise AA on the flop? Of course, with impunity. Let him jam 77. Are we going to raise AA when V donks? Most people would rather slow-play it by just calling. But imagine calling down the whole way, only to find out V had 77, and we lost value by not getting stacks in on the flop.
If we have the range advantage with AA in our range, why not raise AA, KK, AK, AQ, and KQ? Why not raise with all the strongest hands in our range here, to get value from V's worse hands and draws, possibly fold out some of V's better hands, deny equity from his hands that can catch up, and maintain control of the betting?
Are we just never raising here at all, with any hand? Or, if we do sometimes raise, which hands are we raising? Is it only AA/KK? That would seem insanely unbalanced.
Likewise, would V donk 77, rather than check-raise? Maybe sometimes. But most V's would rather check-raise flop, or slow-play it by check-calling, rather than donk-lead and give us a chance to fold our worse hands that might have c-bet for value or as a bluff. Some V's might fear getting coolered by our AA/KK, and will also just check-call, at least until a scary turn card adds another draw.
If he's unlikely to donk with bottom set, how likely is he to be donking with bottom 2P or top-and-bottom pair? On boards like this, his donk range is going to be really unbalanced. He shouldn't have thick value or bluffs. It's almost always weak value.
Once in a while, V will be donking with a better hand, but rarely a hand that's strong enough to 3B. Bottom 2 unblocks top set. Top and bottom unblocks middle set. The only really scary scenario is V slow-playing AK pre, which blocks top and bottom set. But if he's slow-playing pre, how often is he going to spring the trap early by donking the flop?
Even if he calls with a better hand, there's value in raising to buy ourselves a free river card, because he'll almost always be checking to us on the turn when he just flat-calls the flop raise.
When we check-back turn, we could be hoping to improve on the river, which we might do, or we'll occasionally have a strong hand, hoping to induce him to donk the river with worse value or a bluff.
In short - raising his donk prevents him from dictating the terms of engagement.
It would be different if he checked flop, we c-bet, and he x-raised, or if he flat called flop, flat called turn, then donk-led the river. In either of those scenarios, AQ is an easy fold.
Our hand isn't likely to be good very often if we just call flop, call turn, and call river, especially when the 2nd K comes at the end.
Raising the donk-lead on the flop with the strongest hands in our range will certainly fold out a lot of his worse hands. But calling the whole way is losing value with all those same hands we could have raised, by not getting more value from his strong hands and allowing his weaker hands to possibly catch up.
