Live Deep Stack Game :

CO (Hero) 280 bb

BB (Villain) 400 bb - Loose aggressive and regardless any position

*PREFLOP

Dealt to Hero A4 open 4bb > Btn Call > SB Call > BB Call

*FLOP - 4 players, 16 bb

J 6 A

SB check > BB check > Hero CBet 15bb > All fold > BB Call

*TURN - 2 players, 46 bb

J 6 A K

BB check > Hero Bet 27bb > BB Call

*River - 2 players, 116 bb

J 6 A K J

BB donk shove > Hero???



Tried to put him on hands and eliminated some of them with my thoughts as below :

The shove is obviously showing a lot of strength, he was representing a full house or flopped flush.

Lets figure out what full houses he could have in there.

66 - Should mainly check raise my flop bet to protect and extract value from the 3 cards flush board..

AJ - I blocked the AJ and villain could 3bet a large % of the time preflop

KK - Out of consideration and villain could 3bet preflop

AA - Out of consideration and villain could 3bet preflop and I block it

J6 - Not likely to call from the BB but possible. Slow play all the way, just in case he was behind to 2pairs / flush

KJ - The most likely holding with the K. Not necessary to raise flop with decent show down value and a lot of room to improve. Turn, still not convinced to have the best hand that often and OOP. I believe his hold of KJo was more reasonable.



MY QUESTIONS :

1. How often do you make the call ?
2. What hands are the perfect candidate for this call ?
3. Calling frequency to not getting exploit from this situation? Otherwise if he was drawing to a flush then you have to fold every time.

====== Update =======

Assumption :

- Villain will not turn his K into a bluff

- Villain will not slow play AA KK QQ and small chance slow play JJ ( happens sometimes tho)

- Villain capable to donk jam river with flopped K or Q high flushs.

I plugged the possible hand ranges in Equilab, only 3 bluff combos and 45 value combos and my equity only has 6.98%.

I think its a snap FOLD given the odds I was getting 1 : 2.5 odds to call that I need around 40% equity to make a break-even call.


Please correct me if I have any main leaks in this analysis. Much appreciated !

Welcome to the forum, OP. Please don't include results in your hand history, as it tends to bias responses. I edited them out. Please wait until discussion dies down, or at least 24 hours before revealing them.

I won't comment on river, since I saw results, but I will say that you are way overplaying TPNK throughout the hand. I don't hate the PSB on a monotone flop, but I'd prefer a check. Once called OTF, I probably wouldn't put another nickel in the pot unimproved. I think you're giving too much credence to your ace blocker.

Pot size bet OTF is quite bad on a monotone board, you are massively overvaluing top pair/no kicker. Even heads up a small sizing is standard on a mono board. Think of how many hands you have that want to bet flop for this size (not many). This hand especially doesn’t want to bet big, what worse hands do you think are calling? Basically offsuit naked Kc combos and that’s it right?
Need to find a check OTF or OTT, AP river is just a super standard fold. If he showed you a bluff it should be easy to eventually stack him without calling down this light.

The J pairing on the river makes calling tempting but I would still favor a fold. The J counterfeits some of his hands and turns others into chops. If villain is aggressive enough to be betting to get you off a chopped pot then make a read and go with it. This hand really depends on know what villain could play this way and how likely they are to call down with flush draws and then try to bluff hero off river.

This is not a good hand for the situation though. Flop bet is too big, continuing on turn with TPNK is over playing your hand. If the river had not paired a high card you should always be folding because it's easy for villain to be playing an AX with a club kicker that is better then yours.

Flop bet too big...I'd even consider checking.

Turn is a check...A4 is not a hand you want to go to war with on this board.

Played it like you were listening to Dark Helmet..."Keep firing, a@@@oles"

Monotone flop bet sizing should be 33%-20% pot.
AP check turn.
The main leak in your analysis is that you shouldn’t be getting to river all that often with hands as weak as A4/A5/AT with this line. You should be checking these hands back on the turn at a pretty high frequency. I guess the hands that should keep betting turn are AK/AJ/flushes/sets/bluffs. On the river we can fold our bluffs and fold AK and we won’t be over folding too much facing a 2x pot shove. Remember with MDF we only need to call top 33% of range versus 2x pot shove to remain unexploitable.

The problem is your range on river is filled with crap like A4 that should never have taken this line, and now you feel obligated to bluffcatch. Anyway, we have better hands to call down with so A4 is a pretty easy fold.

BTW I wouldn’t worry to much about MDF since this line is going to be underbluffed. Just call with your flushes and full houses and you’ll be fine.

Just gonna hammer on the fact that you massively overplayed this hand. I fold river but it's probably less bad to call than the flop/turn bets. Potting the flop is definitely not ok.

The line I took was as bad as I could from the beginning.. perhaps tilted
The river call was pretty awful but surprise me a bit that potting the flop was even worse.

"feel obligated to bluffcatch" ... yea that was pretty precise for the moment.
You mean calling with 33% of my top 10% overall range vs. 2x pot ?

Noted Garick, will make a better post next time = ) Thanks

We’ve put way too much action in with our marginal hand already. Given how strong we’ve played it, and the fact that he’s still making this bet, makes me want to just let it go.

Flop bet needs to be way smaller. Turn bet needs to not happen.