I've been grinding live quite a bit lately, and have reached the following conclusion about win rates: they are meaningless.

win rate : The amount of money someone is expected to earn per hour.

The amount of money I expect to earn at any given hour is simply impossible to fathom. For within every hour, everything about my poker game is changing; my game is evolving. I'm 22 years old, so I've only been seriously grinding for a year. I play 2-3 times a week, 1/2 NL 300 max, with occasional 2/5 shots.

I can remember how I used to play when I started B&M. My bet sizing was too small, I bluffed too frequently, tilted, etc. I was a winner, but only because I got paid off tremendously well on my value hands. My play simply wasn't optimal. And I only realize that now, as I have completely changed my game, and make tremendously more money now. Granted, my sample size is small (probably about 600-700 hours, or 20k hands). But the fact remains that my game has improved quite a bit. I have a year of solid grinding under my belt, and I'm consistently winning, day in and day out.

But I've never recorded my win rate, because I think it is completely arbitrary. Every time I sit down at a poker table, I aim to play the best I've ever played-- better than the old me. I take my experience/knowledge and apply it. As I play more, I have more experience, and make better decisions. Thus, I expect to make more money every time I play. I do not expect to make $x per hour. I expect to play the best I've ever played.

And my best days keep getting better. I really do feel like a better player every time I play, and that I am constantly increasing the amount/frequency I win.

Hypothesis: My win rate is in flux.

I cannot anticipate how much I will win during any given hour, as there are too many changing factors throughout my life, as well as throughout the game, ie. players leave the table / new players join, other players' moods change (occasionally at random), my own mood changes, I play a little too long. But as I become more conscious of all of these facts, I begin to adapt to them more effectively. For example, I am always becoming a better hand reader and soul reader , my control over my temperament is improving, I tilt less, I spew a lot less, etc. I'm just getting better. This isn't a brag, it's just a fact I've noticed about myself. Perhaps one day I will reach my peak, or even begin to decline as a player. But the fact remains that my game will always be changing, as my reactions to the game are largely based on my history/experience.

Since everything in the future stands to change, how can I possibly predict my win rate? How can I possibly say that I make $14 an hour playing 1/2, when my potential could actually be higher? I know that I'm winning more now, and playing better than I ever have. So who is to say that I won't make more this year?

And why does it even matter? My goal is simply to make as much money as I possibly can. And if I really am improving as a player, then 'as much money as possible' is a number I cannot predict. I do not know how much I am expected to make. Only the future will show.

I suppose the only interesting win rate would be that of a Doyle Brunson, who has exhausted his poker career, and has finally reached the end. He could total up all of his hours and dollars (if it were possible) and determine how much he made per hour over his lifetime. This is what a win rate should refer to. It should be like a lifetime batting average in baseball. We wouldn't say that Tony Gwynn had a 35% chance to hit the ball every time he walked up to the plate in 1994. In fact, he ended up batting .394-- a number no one could have expected. So he had a 39.4% chance to hit the ball every time, but we only know that now, after the season has long been completed. A player's batting average is a measurement, not a predictor. The fact that Gwynn hit .358 in 1993 did not have any bearing on what his 1994 batting avg. would be. He could have hit .290. You just can't predict EXACTLY how likely a batter is to hit the ball. There are too many factors involved.

Poker is similarly too hard to predict. I suppose I could begin to record my win rates each year, but I imagine the numbers would be just like the back of a baseball card. Some great years, perhaps a cold stretch, and then a final avg. or win rate. But who cares? Can't I just play my best and say I'm a winning player, without keeping track of some mysterious hourly rate that won't even reveal itself until I die? All that should matter is playing my best, and trying to make 'my best' even better every time.

Thanks for reading.

Only read about the 1st half, but I get the gist of what you are saying. The short answer is yes.

1. If you are playing professionally, there is no reason you shouldn't be keeping records of hours played and money won/lost at a minimum.

2. You can lie to yourself, willingly or unwillingly that's just the nature of human psychology. But the numbers don't lie.

3. I understand the point you are trying to make and I agree numbers fluctuate as there are many factors involved. But it definitely gives you an idea of what is normal for you and when something changes it can trigger you to investigate what changed. Whether the change was good or bad.

I agree that it doesnt. Not only does it not matter but thinking about your rate does not have a positive effect on your game. I used to keep a detailed spreadsheet that tracked a couple thousand hours of my play and it made me feel good about myself to look at but i got obsessed with the numbers. If my winrate dropped i felt like i had to get it back up again, i felt crappy about how i was playing even if i was doing everything right just because some stupid figure was getting lower.

Ultimately making the right decisions is all that matters and the variance in poker is too great to base the validity of those decisions off of a spreadsheet.

agreed with ya op.. poker is such a hugely complicated game full of many variables to really care what a w/r really is.

Uh. Congrats.

tl dr

Not keeping track of at least: hrs played, amount won, casino played at, is a leak imo. Fix that leak. Then you will begin the path to poker enlightenment. I don't know of a single responsible winning player who does not accurately track his/her results.

Ok so this is where you go wrong:

The problem with this is that you actually can look at players past batting averages and make reasonable predictions on what they will be next year. There's a ton of people who do exactly that (if you're into sabermetrics).

I do like the batting average analogy though. It's useful to look at your batting average over a significant period (ie month, season, career). It's not useful to look at your batting average every game or every week. As long as you're using something approaching a reasonable sample size it's fine.

I use it to pay myself. At first I just kept track and my br in order. After about a year of keeping track of every last detail; time, W/L, place, stake,game; I decided to start paying myself. I take approx. 2/3rd my average hourly from my main place/game, (private home games are not in the calculation because they are much softer so I crush, but not reliable enough to calculate into wage purpose).

For instance, I mainly play in a $1/3 game at my local B&M. My win rate has ranged from it's lowest @ $14 to its highest of $20. I pay myself $10/hr as a supplemental income. If I play 15 hours, I get $150, if I get in 25 hours of play that week, I get $250 and pay myself like it was a real job. This way, I have something concrete to keep br management in order, and a goal that is set. I am working to the next br increment.

This way, I stay focused as to what I am doing this for. To me, this has no longer become a hobby but I don't earn a "living" from it. Any tournaments I decide to play, are from my wage, not my br. (I don't play alot of tourney's, not high enough stakes to even make it worth my time!!!)

I used to have my own small business and I have to say, you need books. Helps you keep track of, where, when, and what are good. Just like this, I think it is a must to be successful by staying in order, you need to have books.

I consider this 1 of 3 jobs. Those other jobs I account for my time and money as well, I figure I have to do it here too.

You are rationalizing your failure to keep good records.

If money and time don't matter, then sure, win rate doesn't matter. Otherwise it matters, you scatterbrained twit.

LOL @ twit comment. But I agree tl dr.

Yes, this is what I was trying to say.

I think win rate is only useful after a long career of poker, as a measurement of how well a player has done.

And I thought I kind of hinted at this, but I do keep SOME track of my records. I don't really count hours (although I have a rough guess), but my profits are way in the black, as I've never had to replenish the BR with other money. Sure, I've spent some of my poker money, so I've probably won even more than I realize, but I really could care less.

I suppose the real bottom line here is that I just don't care enough about grinding 1/2 to actually write down my hours. Perhaps if I start playing 2/5 more consistently, I will begin to keep a more detailed record.


Thanks for the responses.

Takes 2 seconds to record hours and monies won on many websites and smartphone softwares

Yeah, you can tell you didn't read, because it's really obvious you missed the point.