Suppose you have AKo in late pos. and you put your opponent on AK as well (like 85% sure) in a live game. Villain is UTG and makes it 20 in a 5/5NL live game.

You have 100BB or 500 dollars and villain has 120BB or 600 dollars. One caller in MP calls the 20 and you make it 120. UTG calls and MP folds. Blinds fold as well. Pot is now 270.

Assuming you both have AK you will split the pot unless opponent makes a flush. If the flop comes monochrome low such as 26T and villain checks and you bet 100, villain calls. Turn is 8 and villain bets 60 into 470 pot. Do you put villain on a spade? Would you shove here?

If you have AKo there are 9 different ways opponent can have AK. Of those 9 ways 3 have the A and 3 have the K and of those we counted twice when we have AK. So he has a spade 5 out of 9 times.

Villain is capable of floating at this board and bluffing the spade turn. Do we shove on him for 280? We lose 280 5 times(-1040) but win 530 4 times(+2120) for a net gain of 1080 or 1080/9=120 on avg.

Does my thinking make sense and do you agree I should always shove the turn with my AK given my stack size and the size of the pot. I have 280 left pot is 530 villain has 320 left?

Also what do you make of villain's small turn bet?

So you have no fold equity, your hand is A high on a 4-flush board. I don't need math to find a fold here.

Yeah but doesn't the math say shove? I folded he showed AK

lol every time He opens to 20 UTG he has AK?

if what your asking is 'should a player who is capable of making a soulread go with it' then the answer is yes, if your question is shud we shove Ahi no draw on all 4 to a flush boards then the answer is clearly no, and if your question is somewhere in the middle then we shud prob shove some and fold some, ezy game

Oh my God.

"One time a guy bluffed me. Should I make ******ed plays so I don't get bluffed any more? Here are some numbers."

Seriously man, your question is "do you agree I should always shove the turn with my AK given my stack size and the size of the pot?" The answer is no, and math isn't even applicable in this situation. Move this thread to micro stakes, and start reading the strategy posts there.

I think your math is good. If you can put him on AKo, then you know the probability that his hand beats yours. But if he is good too and put you also on AKo, he may make a hero call thinking you don't have the spades either. Usually what you should do, is stare at guy for 2 minutes straight. If you are playing your "A" game, you know you got him or he has got you.

priceless

yep

there might be 5 combos of AK with a spade out of 9

but what about the 3 combos of QQ with spade or JJ?
never has them ever?


also you have to consider that he is not floating you EVERY non spade combo
but he IS going to show aggression with EVERY spade combo
so like hes bluffing you sometimes when he misses... and value betting EVERYTIME he has something

btw most important math think you didnt consider was you would be giving him 3-1 when you shove he would call with 2

I imagine your math is correct (I didn't check), but the hypothetical situation you laid out seems mostly irrelevant to reality. Your statement "you put your opponent on AK as well (like 85% sure)" was a strong indicator that we had entered Irrelevant Math Land. In reality, I don't see how we can assign him such a narrow range given the action.

I like bluff shoving here. The stack sizes are really good for it. Since you don't have much money left, he only needs to fold 35% of the time for the shove to be profitable, and your shove looks really strong. Your opponent might even talk himself into folding a queen or king of spades.

I don't think the turn bet is really expressing strength. If villain really had the nut flush, he would check here a lot to induce a bluff, and if he has air, he'll be very tempted to bluff. You could argue that the villain's turn bet is actually indicative of weakness rather than strength.

Also, if you want to bluff shove, it might be better to just call the turn and shove the river, which is what I would do if I really had the nut flush. It also might save you money in case he shoves the river himself.

live pokers doesnt make snse