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does anyone fold here? does anyone fold here?

07-13-2011 , 11:32 PM
I like how you played it. I probably 4bet preflop given the situation though. As played, call river.
does anyone fold here? Quote
07-13-2011 , 11:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
AJ is kind of a drawing hand so you should shove/fold pre, and I'd lean towards a fold unless I just wanna gamble up a couple hundred bucks.


btw, you're not deep AT ALL.
I think i had like $650 in 1/2 I would say thats semi deep, like I wrote, yes he's not deep at all but I was refrencing myself in that post. 325 bb's isn't semi deep?? I would disagree, but what ever.

To your point to shoving pre. IDK I so rarely do this. I feel, well I do, gain almost all my value from outplaying people post flop. To me jamming and hoping for the best is almost never the peferred line. It seems to me that I let him play perfectly, he folds worse calls w/ better. Why not see a flop and let him try to out play me and stack off on later streets?
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07-13-2011 , 11:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
No.....The bottom of the range he would do this with would be AK...AQ if he is ******ed.
Like others have said the only hand you beat is a spewy A9 or less.
If you qualify villain as a spewtard, you can level yourself to call here.
Even in the history you described from villain, he had an overpair...whether he merged his range or misread the hand is up for debate...bottom line he had showdown value.
A-9 or less is not a showdown hand
How is anything he did, including the to big to call for most 3 bet pre, consistent w/ a value hand? I'm still not seeing this.

I do agree 100% A9 or less dosn't have show down value, so hands like this or worse would NEED to bomb river, AK AQ imo are never shipping the river, or there betting more ott, again imo.

I don't see this line looking like a value line at all?
does anyone fold here? Quote
07-13-2011 , 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
I think i had like $650 in 1/2 I would say thats semi deep, like I wrote, yes he's not deep at all but I was refrencing myself in that post. 325 bb's isn't semi deep?? I would disagree, but what ever.
But the effective stacks is what matters/is at risk. It doesn't matter if you are sitting with 1000BB, if the villain has only 100BB, it isn't deep

Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
To your point to shoving pre. IDK I so rarely do this. I feel, well I do, gain almost all my value from outplaying people post flop. To me jamming and hoping for the best is almost never the peferred line. It seems to me that I let him play perfectly, he folds worse calls w/ better. Why not see a flop and let him try to out play me and stack off on later streets?
No, he can fold AQ, JJ, 10-10, 9-9, 8-8, 7-7 etc etc
You also seemed near certain he can have any ATC
There is dead money you can gain, and let's face it AJ isn't going to win enough for you to overlook the dead money
does anyone fold here? Quote
07-13-2011 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
I disagree. My read at the time was he wasn't stoked that I called in position pre. What hand is he not betting on this flop that beats me? AK AQ is about it, I do agree that he can still get it in on the turn and river, but ultimately he has to have the very very top of his range in this case, which is totally possible for sure. I guess I just saw things differently than most, idk? I felt w/ so much in there already you have to cbet any pair in this spot.

I didn't 4 betshove pre but I did call a huge raise, so I think my hand looks like AK AQ to vill, knowing that, dosn't he almost have to bet flop? Or your thinking he's checking to induce because he knows my hand looks like A paint and bluffing is the only way for me to win?
If he is so aggressive, don't you expect him to c-bet nearly all of his air in this spot on the flop? What kind of a line is it to 3b PF huge, check flop, bet ~40% pot on turn, bet ~50% pot on river? It doesn't seem like he is really looking for a fold on the turn or river to me, unless you guys have some leveling going on. If you think he was raising ATC PF and decided that you are going to call him down no matter what, then that's your plan; but, looking at this hand in a vacuum, you don't appear to be ahead very often at all.

Overall, I wouldn't call here and I probably wouldn't call PF unless I really thought he was playing ATC, in which case I would shove PF or plan to raise all-in on a flop bet. It's just a high-variance strategy to play this way.

But really I'm just wondering what your plan was from the very beginning. You call 25% of the effective stacks PF, so at this point, you are playing for stacks. Then you proceed to show no aggression but aren't sure if you should call relatively small bets on the turn and on the river. Did you think villain was going to just check it down after that huge 3b? Were you planning to only put more money in the pot if you hit a pair or flush?
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07-13-2011 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
But the effective stacks is what matters/is at risk. It doesn't matter if you are sitting with 1000BB, if the villain has only 100BB, it isn't deep



No, he can fold AQ, JJ, 10-10, 9-9, 8-8, 7-7 etc etc
You also seemed near certain he can have any ATC
There is dead money you can gain, and let's face it AJ isn't going to win enough for you to overlook the dead money
I realize what matters in regards to stacks, I was talking purely about shipping pre in general and how I almost never do it. I don't want to getside tracked on this.

I can see your point to him folding w/ the dead money in the middle, I felt at the time there was more value in flatting seeing a flop Because he was so wide. Its hard to make a pair, and then I get a dream board to boot. Thats why I checked back flop, turn it just keeps getting better...
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07-14-2011 , 12:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare

I do agree 100% A9 or less dosn't have show down value, so hands like this or worse would NEED to bomb river, AK AQ imo are never shipping the river, or there betting more ott, again imo.
1/2 pot on the river is bombing? I'm confused by your analysis of the bet sizing. You think these small bets look like bluffs because he's disguising them as value bets or because they are too big? Because they aren't big bets.
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07-14-2011 , 12:05 AM
Since you are "starting to take control of the table" I would continue whatever I was doing to aquire this table control. Sounds like you already have a handle on everything, keep controlling. You even said villain was "easy to read to me." Soul read the river, act accordingly and continue your table dominance.
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07-14-2011 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by str8winner
Since you are "starting to take control of the table" I would continue whatever I was doing to aquire this table control. Sounds like you already have a handle on everything, keep controlling. You even said villain was "easy to read to me." Soul read the river, act accordingly and continue your table dominance.
dude, GTFO....seriously!!!!

If you can't offer something positive, don't troll, just keep lurking
does anyone fold here? Quote
07-14-2011 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by will34
If he is so aggressive, don't you expect him to c-bet nearly all of his air in this spot on the flop? What kind of a line is it to 3b PF huge, check flop, bet ~40% pot on turn, bet ~50% pot on river? It doesn't seem like he is really looking for a fold on the turn or river to me, unless you guys have some leveling going on. If you think he was raising ATC PF and decided that you are going to call him down no matter what, then that's your plan; but, looking at this hand in a vacuum, you don't appear to be ahead very often at all.

Overall, I wouldn't call here and I probably wouldn't call PF unless I really thought he was playing ATC, in which case I would shove PF or plan to raise all-in on a flop bet. It's just a high-variance strategy to play this way.

But really I'm just wondering what your plan was from the very beginning. You call 25% of the effective stacks PF, so at this point, you are playing for stacks. Then you proceed to show no aggression but aren't sure if you should call relatively small bets on the turn and on the river. Did you think villain was going to just check it down after that huge 3b? Were you planning to only put more money in the pot if you hit a pair or flush?
ok before the hand I was certain that he would 3bet if I raised again. I find a HUGE hand for this particuliar spot. I raise he 3bets right on que. I"m sure I'm ahead and want to call and play a pot in position. Once he checks flop its one of two things, he's given up or he actually woke up w/ a monster.

Still I feel like he's only checking 10x 55 and maybe AA KK. when he bets the 3rd 10 it seems to me if he was slowplaying he almost has to continue slow playing, not fire a weakish bet. So I'm obviously calling for value and hoping he dosn't spike one of his 3-6 outs otr. To me theres no consistancy with this line at all. your leading 22-QQ otf, not checking, once the 10 comes off ott, if you have a monster you have to check again, I didn't bet the flop, give me another chance to bluff at it. IMO he gives his hand strength away ott.

Then the river ship?? To me this is 20 seconds in the tank and then a trivial call. I'm suprised somany disagree.
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07-14-2011 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by will34
1/2 pot on the river is bombing? I'm confused by your analysis of the bet sizing. You think these small bets look like bluffs because he's disguising them as value bets or because they are too big? Because they aren't big bets.
By bomb I mean shove the river. I think any turn bet looks like a bluff after the flop check and yes the smaller the bluffier.
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07-14-2011 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
ok before the hand I was certain that he would 3bet if I raised again. I find a HUGE hand for this particuliar spot. I raise he 3bets right on que. I"m sure I'm ahead and want to call and play a pot in position. Once he checks flop its one of two things, he's given up or he actually woke up w/ a monster.

Still I feel like he's only checking 10x 55 and maybe AA KK. when he bets the 3rd 10 it seems to me if he was slowplaying he almost has to continue slow playing, not fire a weakish bet. So I'm obviously calling for value and hoping he dosn't spike one of his 3-6 outs otr. To me theres no consistancy with this line at all. your leading 22-QQ otf, not checking, once the 10 comes off ott, if you have a monster you have to check again, I didn't bet the flop, give me another chance to bluff at it. IMO he gives his hand strength away ott.

Then the river ship?? To me this is 20 seconds in the tank and then a trivial call. I'm suprised somany disagree.
Just want to add that dosn't mean I'm sitting here saying I'm right, thats why i posted the hand. I was just trying to let you guys know what I was thinking, for better or for worse

Also not saying I called and won....or lost....yet
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07-14-2011 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
To me theres no consistancy with this line at all. your leading 22-QQ otf, not checking, once the 10 comes off ott, if you have a monster you have to check again, I didn't bet the flop, give me another chance to bluff at it. IMO he gives his hand strength away ott.
I disagree. OTT, he has ~$150 stack with ~$110 in the pot. If he has a monster, his goal is to get stacks in on the river. He needs to make a small bet on the turn to give himself a reasonable sized shove on the river. Which is what he did.

It sounds like you made the call and won based on your comments, but I don't think this was a great strategy, even against a spewy 3b with rags, you are ~3:2 with AJ. After calling the huge 3b in position, with short stacks (position not even very important with this SPR), you just call and never know where you stand.
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07-14-2011 , 12:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
dude, GTFO....seriously!!!!

If you can't offer something positive, don't troll, just keep lurking
How is that trolling? In this hand OP takes an an unprofitable line with a hand because he has a confident read. He has table control, the villain is easy to read for him, thus he deviated from standard profitable play because the table/villain circumstances warranted it.

Playing AJ this way and calling on the river is long term -EV obviously. However, he played it this way because he was confident in his live read. I am not sure how random strangers, most of whom aren't professionals, can analyze this hand as OP has already made his conclusions and acted primarily on his live read.
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07-14-2011 , 12:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by will34
I disagree. OTT, he has ~$150 stack with ~$110 in the pot. If he has a monster, his goal is to get stacks in on the river. He needs to make a small bet on the turn to give himself a reasonable sized shove on the river. Which is what he did.

It sounds like you made the call and won based on your comments, but I don't think this was a great strategy, even against a spewy 3b with rags, you are ~3:2 with AJ. After calling the huge 3b in position, with short stacks (position not even very important with this SPR), you just call and never know where you stand.
I'm not saying I called and won. What I'm trying to say is the flop check just wasn;t consistent w/ how he played his big hands.

I do agree he would have to set himself up for a river ship. but that would mean he flopped trips, 10x, a boat 55 or was trapping w/ AA maybe KK. when the 3rd 10 comes ott that severly cuts his value combos.

IMO he would have to have been super lucky to wake up w/ AA or KK here.
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07-14-2011 , 12:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by str8winner
How is that trolling? In this hand OP takes an an unprofitable line with a hand because he has a confident read. He has table control, the villain is easy to read for him, thus he deviated from standard profitable play because the table/villain circumstances warranted it.

Playing AJ this way and calling on the river is long term -EV obviously. However, he played it this way because he was confident in his live read. I am not sure how random strangers, most of whom aren't professionals, can analyze this hand as OP has already made his conclusions and acted primarily on his live read.
your kinda right but I do think there is value in discussing the hand. I like to see how other people inturpret certain things. as well as how they would act.

Here I see I was in the minority, right or wrong
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07-14-2011 , 12:34 AM
Gonna let this go for a little while longer guys. I'm still interested in why most of you think this is consistent w/ a value line? I guess I'm the only guy who needs it spelled out for them! thanks guys
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07-14-2011 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
few limps to me in hijack, I open $12 w/ AJ
folds to vill in BB who 3bets to $52

(this is about $20 larger than his usual 3bet size)
(I read this as he dosn't want a call here)
So you dont think he can 3 bet you big and want a call? Perhaps he is taking advantage of his LAG image knowing that you will not believe him?

A LAG gets a paired flop and checks? Based on your observations, wouln't you think he would be firing at this on the flop like almost 100%?

Congrats if you won. I think I would have folded on the turn.
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07-14-2011 , 12:50 AM
if you're read was that he was playing back at you with ATC, then I think a 4 bet is in order preflop as you are squarely ahead of what you think his range is...

as played however, I'm letting this go fairly early, you can't beat much and if your read is wrong and he does have a hand, you really can't beat anything but KQ...
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07-14-2011 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
like I said, I felt like he was gonna 3ball atc from the bb, against that range I love AJ suited. I agree normally in an average or regular spot this would be an easy fold, but not in this specific spot against this vill.
AJs is a good hand to start if the pot has not been raised and you have deep stacks. In a 3bet pot AJ doesn't play well no matter if suited or not. Actually AJ has reverse implied odds in 3bet pot if you insist on playing a top pair hand type and if is suited you not gonna have the correct price to draw after the flop comes down. All this is just the pure basics but if you go a little deeper and take into consideration the commitment threshold and the SPR you'll come to the conclusion that AJ doesn't play well. Now, if you are playing AJs or AJo out of position you'll almost never have a positive EV. I'm still looking for over 25 years to find a dude with +EV on playing any AJ out of position and I cannot find one. Because there is none. lol, lol, ..., The AK played out of position has a very small +EV in the hands of an expert but the general public, so to speak even AKs out of position is a -EV. Now, I'm sure you don't agree with what I'm talking about, but that's fine because I understand you like to play cards when you drive to the poker room.

AT,
does anyone fold here? Quote
07-14-2011 , 09:19 AM
I would check AA/KK on this flop quite a bit and play the rest the same. So, I would fold. Perhaps even on the turn.
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07-14-2011 , 09:53 AM
He would bet his air on the flop so always has a better hand here
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07-14-2011 , 09:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner
He would bet his air on the flop so always has a better hand here
^^ agree with this except I'd say "almost always has a better hand".

If your playing based on a read imo 4betting preflop is optimal if your deep enough. like you said, you thought he'd 3bet any 2 and if thats true AJs is the nuts PF.
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07-14-2011 , 10:31 AM
Also his preflop reraise is so large that although I may think he is at it, I would probably fold preflop. It looks like he has a hand like a middle pp that he either wants to get it in pre with or take it down as based on his 3 bet size he can't possibly pass to a 4 bet jam.
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07-14-2011 , 06:30 PM
several things scream that he does not have air to me.

-first of all, you mentioned the 3Bet was larger than his normal 3bet
i interpret this as he wants the pot to be bigger PF so it is easier for him to get the rest of his stack in later. noting that he bet approx 25% of his stack.

-second, he checks flop on a bone dry board.
Due the high SPR created by his larger 3bet, he checks, giving you the opportunity to take a stab. If your stab is big enough or u caught a big enough piece, you are committed to call his All in

-third, small bet OTT instead of a jam or 3/4 pot bet.
again, he feels if you call this small bet, you are thus committed to stack off the rest otr or you might even think you can make him fold by shoving over right then and there. if he was trying to make you fold. obv he is going to bet larger to discourage you from making a call like the one you did end up, in fact, making


All these things considered, even if he is bluffing, you are beating almost 0 part of any 3bet range. i believe someone mentioned like A9 or KQ. ( most good players dont want to get involved in a 3b pot with something like KQ so i would personally rule that out. but w.e).

the possibility does exist that he has a bluffing range that he plays identical to premiums, but i doubt that is this case here.

as many others have said, FOLD PRE. AJ will only get you into trouble in 3bet pots, esp against tough players. As played, Fold Turn, fold river, etc.
the only plays i would advocate if you really really really think he is bluffing, shov PF or bet large enough to commit him OTF( but as i said earlier, it was prob a trap) sorry for the super long post.
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