Need help on a hand. Effective stacks are Hero (900) Villian 850. 1-2 NL game villian is super tight vpip under 15 but overplays draws if gets post flop. I make it 12 with KK no diamonds. He flats. Flop: Kd 10d 9h. I lead for 35 and he makes it 105. I flat and take a turn of Ac. I check and he jams for 700 ish. I tank for a while and start to ask him questions. I say if I call how many times we running it (in this game a lot of 2 boards happens). He says oh ill go 3 times I guess.... this feels super strong and a made hand here. I cannot find a hand he can have that jams this turn without it being the JQ. I fold... still not sure if right but given stack sizes, pot size, and read on his tight play.... Your thoughts?

This deep, I don’t mind the fold. Doubt I can fold this in real time though. He can easily have TT/99 which he gets comfortable with once you don’t 3bet the flop.

Villain dependent, but in general I rr on the flop to $300 or so and hope to get it in or bomb the turn if he calls. If he flopped a straight so be it. I've been in this sort of situation several times, holding top set of KK on this flop or a set of Aces on a A-J-T flop. You have to be absolutely sure he's not doing this with a set/two pair/some type of draw to fold your hand.

On the flop you have 50% equity versus a range of just QJs, QJo and a set of 10s or 9s. You have 67% equity when you add in any two pair and more if you add in some sort of diamond draw.

OTT right now if you believe he's so tight that he wouldn't ship it with anything less than the nuts, you can fold.

I'll be honest, I never played this deep at low stakes, but I'm 3! flop like 9/10 times here to ~$350.

If he shoves, then it's purely a math problem on our equity versus straights and lower sets. If we're looking at QJ/TT only, then we have 44% equity (on the flop) and I'm never folding, but we can probably discount some unsuited QJ combos and weigh it towards hands with a Qd high flush draws and backdoor flush draws.

On the turn vs QJ/TT we have 34.3%, and we need 42.8% (700/1634) so it feels like a much easier fold. Even if we add a bunch of non-discounted 99 combos here (sounds like V is a nit so we should be really discounting some of them), we're still only at breakeven equity (42.98% minus rake ~ 42.8%).

I don't think the variance swing is worth any upside here (if there even is one, it's incredibly slim). But against nits who play their straights face up by massively overbet shoving, we should be making exploitative folds.

PS: also agree with everything VipassanaMan wrote.

You said he overplays draws post flop so why aren't you 3 betting the flop?

Its a weird dichotomy in that he is super tight pre but also somewhat likely to be spewey if picks up equity. That said I had a sick feeling and my read was he just outflopped me because of the small raise on flop... I took a turn but just couldnt justify playing for stacks this deep with a read that I am drawing...

winnar

hes got sets in his range too, cant fold now imo.

edit: why is he 3x pot shoving? is he really that MUBSY?

I imagine some hands like AdQd could be in his range, too. I’m not folding turn.

Your hand is so underrepped on the flop, I have a hard time giving this up.
OTOH, the A on the turn is a weird card. I feel like he really hopes you have AK and might call.
So tricky playing this crazy deep at 1/2.

Raising the flop is definitely correct, but if he 4bet jams flop its basically the same situation.
I don't know if I can give this up. Some people seriously overplay their hands when 400+ bb deep, and some people are only shoving the nuts.
In real time I can probably never fold the 2nd nuts when never drawing dead, but I don't know if that's actually correct.

try to include positions in your HH.

this is reads dependent. if he's really super tight could possibly find a fold but realistically villains that snug are rare, i'm not folding here very often IRL

People who play only 15% of hands dont call raises with QJ. Reraise the flop and prepare to get all in.

If we are $700 deep why is our raise only $12?

Villian makes the right play this deep if he calls pre with QJ (suited or not), we invited him in with our small raise.

What are your positions?

Not folding this OTT; V overplays draws postflop and this is a draw-heavy board. We're up against so many hands that we completely dominate here.

But I'd also put in a 3! to like 305 OTF, and GII on most turns. Nobody is folding a set, AJdd, AQdd OTF.

I am UTG +2 and he is last to act as button folded.

At least QJo they don't so that takes out a bunch of combos from what you are behind. I am with Mike...RR flop and GII.

QJs is top 8% of hands by at least one ranking.

If you're cold-calling 6x raises with QJo against a non-whale you're leaking badly at any stack depth.

Deep stacks and position is not a justification for playing trash for a large raise, and I have no idea why you're suggesting $12 is not big enough. That's already huge by online standards and pretty normal by live 1|2 standards. We got a heads up pot and got a lot of money in with a premium pre-flop. That's a great result.

Yes it is. If you have an edge over the raiser, it is exactly why you play the hand.

Yes but we arent talking about QJs being in the top 15%. We are talking about a guy who plays about 15% of his hands. Its very unlikely that a guy who plays that tight over all is calling a raise with QJ. A guy playing like 15/8 or whatever his raise percentage is will be folding QJ to a raise almost always. Maybe he calls if its suited but I still think odds are against it when its an EP raise. Im willing to bet my stack he doesnt have QJ.

I'm not good enough of a player to fold a set of kings without an amazing read on the villain. This can easily be AK over playing their hand.

I'd run it once. Don't ever tell anyone you folded a set of kings or show your cards.

It seems unlikely Villain is going to jam the turn with just a naked FD, especially since the A presumably pairs up some of his draws. Equally, he should realise that AA is now ahead of him if he has TT/99 which may slow him down. I actually don't mind a fold OTT as played as its hard for a 1/2 villain to be 3x overbetting the pot without the nuts IMO.

That said, I'm never in this spot - because Im 3betting the flop to some amount that makes calling his flop shove trivial.