10-20 commerce. 7.5k effective. Tight reg v. Raises in the cutoff 60. I call in the big blind with qj off. Flop is qj8 two spades, 1 diamond. I check. He bets 40 I raise to 140. He flats. 7 of diamonds turn I bet 210. He flats. River 4 of diamonds. I bet 410. He makes 1400 more. How do you play this river?

Let's start with how wide he can raise river with for value

To me he has a flush or busted spades. I dont think he is ever turning a queen into a bluff on the river.

Bet more on turn
Bet/fold river

I should have bet 320 on the turn. I thought bet fold too because he isn't just folding aq, kq, q10. I just don't know if he would turn top pair into a bluff. The guy has a ton of experience in nl but I just don't think he would try to bluff a rec player like me repping a flush on the river when I am repping top-two or sets.

Your perceived range OTR is QJ+
Think it'd be pretty insane for him to try to bluff you off, esp given you describe him as tight

I wouldn't be check/raising this board at these stack depths against competent/capable villains too damn often. There are a lot of scary turn cards for our range, any ace/king/ten/nine/eight/any spade can improve villains continuing range on the turn. That's basically half the deck, so why inflate this pot on the flop? Let him barrel away/value own himself on future streets while we pot control/keep his weaker value range in the hand.

As played, bet bigger on turn, 300-350 works. River sucks b/c back door diamonds get there. Villain could have continued w/ any combo of T9/sets/gutters/gutters + FD/gutters + BD FD/overpairs/AQ/KQ/QJ, but we figure he's gonna put another raise in with sets/2 pair combos on flop or turn considering wetness of the board, so as played I might just check/call river in order to let him barrel his missed gutters/flush draws while pot controlling against his back doored diamonds/slow played 9T combos.

Agreed

Forgot to mention I'm def folding to villain's river raise as played by OP

what card was a diamond on the flop and do you have one in your hand?

Funny this wasn't asked sooner but yes this line looks like value hand that backdoored diamonds alot so what/if you block is important.

What is up with his flop sizing and what is up with all of your sizing?

That is a good point actually. I think the small card was the diamond. I think my cards were black so no diamond.

I guess I wanted him to call with top pair and if I bet near pot he might fold

potting it would have been much more than 140, as 60*2 pre +SB 10 + Flop Bet 40*2 = 210. I honestly don't think check/potting it to even this size stops villain from calling and continuing with his entire c-betting range when we are super deep. Diamond blockers are important as some have stated, but I'm guessing that he had exactly some combo of broadway diamonds that backdoored a flush.

rivers an easy fold if you think he never turns Qx into a bluff otr. He has a ton of diamond combos that get here this way. Hed have to be bluffing missed with an extremely high frequency for this to be a call.

edit: hopefully he turned over a bluff given you bet with $10 chips on 2 separate streets in a commerce 10/20 game :P

Your line looks very strong. I think V's line makes sense for T9. I probably just fold, getting almost 3-1 it is tough to justify folding top 2 here but I don't think V is bluffing here. It seems like a total spew with busted spades.

This is spot on, IMO.

I folded and he didn't show and this other reg tried to tilt me by saying he was bluffing which I doubt.

Yes I agree. It would be a pretty bad play for a reg so I just pitched it.

I fold. I'd go bigger on every street though. My money is on 56ss.

what do you guys think about just leading flop? were pretty deep here it might be a better play than a flop c/raise 375bb's deep on this board.