2/5 game, Hero(2000): viewed by entire table as solid, winning player. usually has it if he bets

Villian(1300): 40ish middle-eastern male. not a winning player, will stack off semi-light when its obvious I have him beat, earlier got in all in w QJss on KT7ss board for a 1400 pot, he was the one who raised all in.

I raise to 25 with AAsd UTG+1, villain to my right calls, 2 others call.

flop is QJ4cc (jack and 4 are clubs). big blind checks, I bet 85 for pot control, villain raises to 500. BB has $20 left and calls which is irrelevant except now I get to see his hand no matter what.

my range for villain is about 70% KTcc or 9Tcc based on the way ive seen him play hands in the past. he cant have QQ or JJ bc he would've 3bet me preflop (I know this from past experience). he could have a scared QJ here, even Q4 or J4 suited, but I do not think he would bet so much into such a small pot with these hands, he went from 85 to 500, so while its possible he has 2pair+, I think im good here the majority of the time but im up against a monster draw. do you call here with this read or wait for a better spot?

Some strange thinking ITT. Not sure why you want to pot control on the flop with AA. If you do want to pot control, a bet of $85 into what looks to be a $100 pot isn't really accomplishing it.

Don't know why you're so sure he has to have a combo draw (you didn't mention 44, which is a possibility too with the flat pre), but I'll take your reads at a given. Does he ever bluff here? If not, you say his range is 70% combo draws, and the other 30% has you dominated (two pairs or sets). So, 70% of the time you're flipping and 30% of the time you're destroyed. I fold.

Pot was 125 actually, there was one other caller, my fault. I thought about 44, I put it in the same category as he likely isn't going to make it 500 into a 200 pot with a set, he is going to extract value from an overpair or top pair. all hands that likely have me beat are not making it 500 here, people do this with a draw to get it in and gamble gamble if I have what I have. if he has 44 he is making it 200-250ish, not 500 unless hes a complete nit, which he isn't.

but your logic makes complete sense. if I think im flipping 70% of the time and behind 30% of the time just fold and pick a better spot. I just know 2 of the sets, QQ and JJ are never there since he didn't 3 bet pre, so 2 pair is what he most likely has if I am beat, and I have a better chance of improving against those

We gotta fold here for reasons stated, if we are good he will probably have a lot of equity and if we're not it's hard for us to catch up. QJ, 44 and combo draws are going to be the most likely hands in his range here. I would only go with this if I know for a fact he will spaz out with AQ/AJ here.

An important factor here: most villains in low stakes live games do not think like 2p2ers do. Just because you shouldn't flat QQ or make such a huge raise with a set here doesn't make it impossible. If villain hasn't demonstrated that he's a solid thinking player, then we can't restrict his ranges and plays to what we think is "standard".

if you have such a perfect read on his hand, what's the problem?

call the raise, see the turn, then get the rest in if it's not A K 9 8 or club.

if you acknowledge that he could potentially be doing this with a value hand, easy fold

I was definitely considering this, flat and jam and nonscare turn cards. if an A that isn't a club hits im jamming or c/ccing though and if he has KT he stacks me. I think hes the kind of player that would call 800 into 1800 with a big draw if he missed turn though, so im still completely gambling here. getting over 2 to 1 with what I have him on wouldn't be a terrible call by him either

The previous hand he was likely flipping with your hand so it wasn't a bad shove, villain can easily use the previous hand where he was drawing and do the same with 2 pair or a set here. I'd fold and be sure to see what he showed up with

Call flop. Shove a blank turn.

im not going off of 2+2 standard plays, I tried to make it obvious all my reads and decision making was based off of previous plays. I have a lot of history with him and know QQ or JJ he is 3 betting me pre. as far as him making it 500 into a 200 pot, that isn't so much history as much as I just always see fish do this with big draws and not sets or 2 pairs. I said I would guess im behind 30% of the time, which is probably on the high side, and that's likely 2 pair which I have outs against

it wasn't against me, it was against another opponent. he was up against a set and won. I never said it was a bad shove, I would've gotten it all in too more than likely for 645, I just think he has a similar hand against me now and im using that hand as previous info

stove the range you assigned him and determine your equity.

you also can't just arbitrarily conclude that 70% of his range here are KTcc or T9cc. that makes up just two combos of hands of a fair amount of hands you assigned him, so it is much less than a 70% chance he has this

of coarse his range is more combos than 70% ktcc and 9tcc, I just do not think he has 44, j4, q4, qq, or jj here very often at all, its very unlikely, although possible. qj is much more likely than any of those hands but I still see big draw type hands as what he likely holds. the 70% number has nothing to do with pokerstove, its based on my read, betting pattern and past experience. he could have the other AA, KK or a complete bluff with 23o, but I wouldn't stove that bc its very unlikely

trust your read, call and decide depending on the turn card.

I see I missed where you said you had a lot of history with the villain to know he's 3betting JJ and QQ pre. Even so, this deep I don't like the high variance of this spot. If stacks were shallower I would be more inclined to go with your read. When I get home I might try and do a little math on this to make a better argument one way or the other.

I don't think he would be betting that much on a draw. It looks like a made hand (set, QJ) who is affraid of the flush. With that being said, at worst your just about flipping if he's on a draw anyway.

If you're 100% he's on a draw than you are ahead. But this type of flop is very coordinated with QJ4 good for big flush and straight draws and also the possibility of two pair or any of the three sets. If he's got Pair + FD his hand is as good as yours. I don't think you want to play your $500+ stack on an over-pair. If flop would have been all and you hold the A than I would say call. But with this maniac in this situation just fold and let him take $85 for now. I don't think he's shoving $500 with AQ and if he's got a set he's a donkey because he doesn't know how to play. You can take this to the bank and be assured you'll get him hammered later into the session.


AK

OP, let's say V has a flush draw, before you betted the flop, did you have any guesses as to how V would react to your flop bet? Basically, what was your plan?

If you KNOW you are up against a maniac villain that over shoves and stacks off light, what do you think he is going to do if you bet flop? Serious question no snark.

just fold. If you think he mostly has big draws you could either just get it in on the flop (I still think folding is way better). That way you you arent left wondering what to do if a red 9 comes on the turn. Or you could call flop and on brick turns I think you should check/call.

Those advocating a fold, please explain exactly why you fold given the above villain description?

I'm being serious. What is the point of villain descriptions and tendencies and hand histories if we don't base our decisions off them? Serious question?

If V is the typical weak tight, passive, fit-n-fold, ABC, nit, rock, solid, or decent TAG sure we can fold here.

But V isn't. He is an aggro maniac spewtard that overvalues draws and stacks off semi-light...

So again, please explain to me why you think folding here is profitable?

Because I must be missing something???

-If we use the range we gave him given our read:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,860 games 0.000 secs 2,772,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Jc 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.371% 26.37% 00.00% 3655 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 73.629% 73.63% 00.00% 10205 0.00 { 44, KcTc, QJs, Tc9c, QJo }

So we are in pretty bad shape against this range with 26.371%

If we remove 44 from his range, our equity increases to 30.615%

If we add some more possible hands ( a couple of combos of Q4s/J4s, AQcc, ATcc, 1-2 combos of KK-JJ, some offsuit AQ)

21,780 games 0.000 secs 4,356,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Jc 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.232% 35.12% 00.11% 7649 24.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 64.768% 64.66% 00.11% 14082 24.50 { KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, JhJs, 44, AcQc, AdQd, AcTc, KcTc, QJs, Tc9c, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, QJo }

Now we are up to 35.232%. Adding the rest of AQ combos and KQs moves us up to 44.659% and adding KQ brings us to about 50%.

We are getting laid 1.7 - 1 on the flop call, which we need 37% to break even. He'd need to be a bit wider than our given range if we want to feel good about flipping for stacks here.

after seeing those stove ranges im pretty sure this is a fold with the ranage I have him on.

results: I fold, shortstack is all in and villain announces "I have only queen." I just about puke but he had AQcc and binked the turn. I don't know why but at the time I wasn't thinking of AQcc or KQcc in his range but those make perfect sense

those ranges are way too narrow for the described villain.

I mean seriously, OP says villain is aggro spewtard that stacks off semi-light and based on that we assign villain a range of nothing but two pair hands, sets, and OESD + FD combos???

really???

I expect V's range in this spot to be this
I feel like I'm the only one who actually read the OP description of villain.

There is too much MUBS in this thread.

I see it everyday. There is a maniac spewtard shoving shoving shoving every other hand and showing bluffs, busted draws, TPWK that sucks out on river for two pairs. As the spewtard is shoving everyone NOT in the hand is speculating that the spewtard is FOS and doesn't have it.

but then, when those same people are finally in a hand against the spewtard and the spewtard shoves, those same people are like, "Man, he must have the near nuts..."

No NO effing NOOOOO!!!!!!

Can the spewtard have the near nuts? Sure. But what is more likely, what is most probable is that he is shoving just as wide as he was when you weren't in the hand and when you were quick to read him as having a wide range.

When we are up against these types of players, we can't all of a sudden get tiny testicles when the heat is on. When they shove against us we can't ONLY call when we have a set and fold everything else because we are convinced this "one time" he has us crushed.

It is simply not profitable folding overpairs to players like this. And of course they are going to be shoving semi-wet boards. I mean, that is what they do. They shove their draws and obviously it worked because it got OP to lay down a monster...

I agree we shouldn't auto lay down over pairs to this guy, but on this texture he will have a lot of semi bluffs with good equity. If he's this spewy, why am I going to flip for over 200bbs here? Not saying its bad to get it in against that range, but high variance. It seems a little thin for me.

um, I think u are misunderstanding my description of villain. when I say stacks off light I mean he calls me down light when there is little to no chance hes good. hes a call station fish, I never said agro spewtard. I am not mubsy at all, I call when I think im good, but if I think its 50/50 for 1300 bucks each and there is only 200 out there I let it go and pick a better spot, especially if theres an added chance im well behind. im ok with my decision to fold