Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Do we jam here? Do we jam here?

10-24-2019 , 03:33 AM
So this was played in a live 5/5 game.

10 handed, eff stacks between me and V is about 800. V is tight asian girl who I haven't seen make any really bad mistakes though is def a recreational player.

I open to 20 UTG3 with JJ, she calls from MP as well as 2 other callers (OOP vs 2). Flop is T85r blind checks, I continue for 45 (high rake game so this was about a 3/4th pot bet). V calls, 2 other players fold. Turn is a J bringing in a flush draw. I decide to overbet here and bet 165, she calls, and river we hit quads. She has about 550 behind and I end up betting 330, she calls and mucks, idk what she had. Since this spot looks so bluffy to a rec player since flushes and KQ missed does it make sense to just rip it in here or do you think that a tight rec might not want to risk there whole stack here? I figured she has some boats in her range which she'd jam anyway (though sorta counter intuitive thinking since she will call the all in too). I thought maybe a hand like AT might find a fold vs a jam which is why I chose to bet 330 but thinking maybe we just jam this spot for max value?
Do we jam here? Quote
10-24-2019 , 06:01 AM
This is more of a math problem. The question is how often would she have to fold to an additional 220 to make betting 330 better.

550 * (1-fold %) < 330. Fold % = 1-330/550 = 40%.

The odds are very low that she would fold that much to a 550 bet if she's calling 330, especially if she is getting over 2:1 odds.

As for the game, I'd leave it immediately. Very hard to win if the rake is 15 in a 60 pot.
Do we jam here? Quote
10-24-2019 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
This is more of a math problem. The question is how often would she have to fold to an additional 220 to make betting 330 better.

550 * (1-fold %) < 330. Fold % = 1-330/550 = 40%.

The odds are very low that she would fold that much to a 550 bet if she's calling 330, especially if she is getting over 2:1 odds.

As for the game, I'd leave it immediately. Very hard to win if the rake is 15 in a 60 pot.
thanks for your reply, I think jamming was prob the higher ev line here. As for the game its $30 at 10%. I used to think its unbeatable too, but during times when there are whales on the table its def beatable and for a big WR too. Also I have a backing deal which is 50/50 on losses and 65/35 on wins so that sorta spins it in my favor.

If there aren't at least 2 big whales on the table or I'm not close to the left of at least 1 big whale the games prob -ev, but so far I've been beating these particular games for maybe 200 hours now and know a few other grinders who are winning in these games also.
Do we jam here? Quote

      
m