LJ has been pretty snug over the 4 hours I've played with him. Doesn't strike me as a strong player and unsure if he's raising A4/A2 here and near positive he'll struggle to find bluff raises like 5c6c or Kc10c.
And that's the best-case scenario. Don't forget one thing, A2 and A4 are the weakest parts of his range. If he doesn't raise turn with A4 A2 you are dead.
Call to trap (and check-call any River). Folding at any point should never even cross our mind, our only thought right now is “what is the best way to get V to put all his chips in?”
if LJ is tight/nitty this is always a set of twos or fours and you should fold. hes not calling pre with A2o or A4o. he might not even call pre with A2s and A4s. furthermore a TAG will often 3b with those hands in this position pre. i suppose its possible he has AJ and its a chop.
also it would be pretty dumb imo to bluff here with a draw considering your range is uncapped with the action on this board.
also at game speed i would bet the turn, but i wonder if thats actually correct. it depends on your image. his range is mostly medium strength Ax hands and those hands cant really take the heat of a turn double barrel unless you have a bluffy image. it might be better to check and make him think his AT is good.
Isn't this a chop like >75% of the time? Are "snug, not strong" players overcalling JJ pf? I wouldn't think so, so don't we have nut advantage, given I doubt anyone is calling or opening 53s? (Though that may be a wrong assumption.)
Im happy to check the flop here, A high flops you cbet less often because the board is so static. As played easy to GII, A4 A2 probably getting it in as well as 22 44.
FLOP - we're monkey-in-the-middle in a multi-way pot. Just check and see what the other two guys do. We can check-call a single bet, fold to a bet and a raise, or make a delayed c-bet if the flop checks through and it checks to us again on the turn.
TURN - As played, danger alarms are going off when we turn top 2 and V raises us over 40% of our remaining stack. Maybe we're chopping here, but the hairs standing up on the back of my neck tell me V was sand-bagging something on the flop, and doesn't like the appearance of the BDFD.
Think we can flat call, maybe we have to flat call, but I'd proceed with caution, and prepare to abort mission if V blasts off on the river. Pray for another A or J so we can check-raise-jam.
ETA - just saw the reveal. Yep, 53 or a set is about what I was expecting for value. Hard to see what bluffs he'd have with this line and board texture. Make a mental note that V likes to slow-play nutted hands on dry textures, but his sudden spurts of aggression when the board gets wetter are not BS.