I cant believe no one brought this up earlier. I might be inclined to call against an unknown bc they overvalue their hands a lot of times but when he says "I didn't notice the flush" he almost always has u beat. why would he say that if u were good unless u have a read he knows nothing about poker which is possible in some cases, but if u think he has played plenty before he isn't going to say that. my reads have steered me wrong before but this statement to me makes all the difference and I fold

And Villain shows you T

c/c or planning to c/r river is atrocious at 1/2NL against an unknown. Nobody mentioned it because its terrible.

B/f is the right move here, this deep. I would have b/f bigger, but still folded to any raise.

I would b/f in your situation.

1. You don't have a solid read on the opponent. You haven't played with him long enough. You don't know if he overshoves. You don't know if he plays ATC.

2. In the long run, folding is more profitable. If he's super aggro and fishy all his chips will sooner or later get redistributed in other people's stacks and hopefully you will get a good chunk of it in a better spot. If he knows what he's doing, you averted making a bad call.

Please prove the EV.

Pretty sick of people here straight out rubbishing other people's views without proving jack ****.

So, please prove the EV of:

A) Check calling, given how action has played.
B) Bet calling, given how action has played.
C) Bet folding, given how action has played.
D) Check folding, given how action has played.

I'll be interested to see the results myself, because I advocated check calling and could well be wrong. But please prove it, rather than just stating something as outright fact. I await the answer, and then maybe we can all learn something when comparing the results to our read of the situation, thereby all becoming better players.

The thin value river raise is so rare at LLSNL that every time it is spotted, a thread is made on 2p2.

He has a zazillion boats in his range.

Don´t deny it´s exceedingly hard under the hot lights of the casino, but in the cold light of a forum it´s a fold.

Strength tells

Confident and talking in huge pot
Min raise turn
Bet size
Obv lie about not seeing flush

Weak tells

Quick Bet

Everyone saying call because of 1 tell that is common reverse tell please come to my game.

Fold and don't go home if this guy shows less than a boat.

There's no way to prove its +EV or -EV because... as i said... against an unknown you don't know how he's going to react. Q.E.D.

So stop rubbishing other people outright then. You don't know how he's gonna react? So then everyone's opinion is valid and there are a number of ways this could play out. Don't come flat out calling someone's opinion terrible when you can't prove it.

Maybe i think you advocating donking out/folding to someone who's been aggressive on the turn rather than continuing to let them barrel is terrible. But i'm not gonna say that to you without providing an argument as to why.

Generally speaking the burden of heavy lifting is up to yourself so if you think you are right, you prove it.

check/calling the river is terrible, I have no real interest in spending a ton of time grinding through the math but bet/folding >>>> check/calling AINEC.

This isn't me trying to be a dick just that my opinion is out there, take it or leave it and if you can prove me wrong then feel free but I feel I am ~100% right here.

Yeah villain might show up with a bluff/weaker flush like 15% of the time here but that isn't good enough odds to call.

against complete idiots this could be a b/c, I never said c/r or c/c. im just saying villain gave us a read to easily b/f. against some of the people I play against on a regular basis I call this since they are aggrotards that overvalue their hands. if he had a straight and flush draw and hit a lower flush he might think "I iz always good here, I haz flush". the speech tells us otherwise

LOL no.

If i say something and your response is 'that is terrible' I expect to be told why you think that because you're the one doing the rubbishing. This isn't a God v Science debate, this is valid options and valid opinions, and we're here to work out what the best option is. If you're telling someone else their play was **** then explain why or don't say anything. 'Terrible.' isn't constructive imo.

I thought that was the point of the forum? To discuss, not to just come in swinging dicks like you know something everyone else doesn't and then expecting them to prove your slander of their opinion wrong?

I thought the point of 2p2 was to have an open forum where we discussed with the common goal of becoming better players?

How does just telling someone they're terrible do this? I imagine you sorts of people should be coaching online or something. Then when someone check calls in this situation you can just say 'terrible.'...'Why, what did i do wrong? What would have been a better line?'...'well if you don't know yourself....next hand.'

Maybe i'm missing the point of this forum, maybe it exists so people can come and flex their poker muscles.

Seriously... you're advocating check/calling the nut flush when the K,J,T flushes are all out there and possible, straights, trips, JJ type hands that will gladly check back the river and get to showdown.

All this so that a complete unknown can maybe value bet a worse hand or make that 5% bluff.

Its complete rubbish. And its almost certainly results oriented because I doubt you'd be advocating it in any other thread. If you're routinely c/c or c/r the river with the nut flush... well, I just don't know what to say.

Its 1/2NL. When you have no info on Villain, you have to assume he's an AVERAGE 1/2NL player. The average 1/2NL player wants to get to showdown, is not betting for thin value on the river, and never thinks that bluffing the river is going to work.

Your opinion is valid. Its rubbish, but valid. Get over yourself.

This is pretty much a textbook example of when a b/f is the right move. Your bet can easily be called by worse (trips, flush, straight, overpair) and can only be raised by better, modulo advanced hands turned into bluff plays (not going to be used in this situation since hero is unknown to villain) and idiotic villains (does not apply in this situation especially since the guy bought in for $1900).

I don't see any reason to compare EV of check/calling vs bet/folding here because this decision is so obvious. Trips, straight, overpairs, and flushes are very likely to check back the river and they make up a huge % of the villain's range, so we are losing a lot of value if we let that happen.

Just think most river all ins mean very big hands at this level ( 1-2)! Certainly there are some other possibilities (already commented on) but I think I am beat by the FH here too much of the time to call. I fold reluctantly!

LOL, i wasn't even really strongly pushing for a check call, i just said that's what i'd do. Maybe if you try explaining the above FIRST, then we can all learn a little more next time rather than condensing it down into 'check calling is terrible.' Thanks for your responses.

I am being constructive, OP asked a very simple question and I gave a very simple answer. If he asked a tougher question I'd be more inclined to go more in depth.

Do more hard work on your own time and I'd be more willing to help you but so far all I've seen you do is complain.

Also, in NLHE there is almost always 1 right answer so your analogies are very poor.

I'm calling here and my gut tells me your ahead. I will look for your result post but based on what we have here for info I feel like trip tens is what he shows up with.

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relax man.. you appear to be saying that you don't need to defend your position because you disagreed nicely...

anyways, estimating a bunch of EV's doesn't necessarily prove anything anyways because it generally involves a ton of assumptions.. people will still argue about whether the ranges assigned to villain were correct

Think this is a really clear fold... flushes & Tx are flatting river like 100% here. Cant see it ever being air... and its 1/2 in a multi way pre pot ... essentially all combos of boats are feasible for villain

+ hand hero best represents is basically exactly what he has (and I think even poor player in this spot see it that way)

My gut feeling and spiritual energy tells me you like calling.

Who's talking to you RE going into depth? No one. I quoted you to prove a point, you don't need to reply to my post which wasn't directed at you, thanks.

And yes, complaining that there is very little help around here and a lot of 'you're wrong.' or 'do this.' without ANY further explanation obviously makes me a very bad person.

I guess the forum title needs changing from

'Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies'

to

'The place to tell people they're right or wrong because you're better than them.'

Great educational resource for all.

Calling because so many people have a small flush is horribad. This person has a huge stack. Probably from guys who call over bets with second tier hands.

Forum wars!

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I need some results here, the suspense is killing me

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