2/5 NLHE, $570 effective.

Villain has been at the table for about 45 minutes and appears pretty loose. Clearly recreational and not familiar with any poker decorum (keeps his big chips in the back and has no idea what a straddle is). I am fairly certain (he almost had to have) he overplayed an Ax on an AA6r flop in a 3bet pot where I cbet and he check-shoved AI. I folded, so didn't see for sure. He has also overbet the pot a couple times w/o showing it down.

Villain in SB.
Hero in BB.

Folds to Villain who completes. This is the first chance we've had to chop, and I offer even after he completes. He looks confused and says nothing. I look down to XX and raise to $20. He calls.

Flop is 9d8d3c. He checks, I bet $25 and he moves in for $550 total. He appears comfortable and clearly he thinks he has the best hand.

What is the minimum you call with here?

So you're asking us to play blind?

It makes a big difference, but given you don't want us knowing your hand minimum of top set to call.

This is probably going to be locked.

If I feel like gamboling, AdXd. Otherwise, I'd have to have a set or 10Jdd or 67dd.

You are folding 88 here?
How about 33?

You're folding JT?

It's all about range analysis. We don't need to know our hand to make an educated guess on the range of hands that he could have. Once we determine that we should be able to peg down all the hands that we would call with.

I'd prolly call with any set, any straight draw + flush draw combination, I'd be on the fence with AA, top two, and possible AFace

All of that is read, table, and hand dependent. Because I would play all of those hands differently rather than blanket raise 20 everytime SB completes.

So given none of this, I can't promote any hand but top set to call.

(Given our PF raise and cbet that got an AI, I'm folding draws et al. I don't like OPs line: felt like a steal, looked like a steal, got caught off by an AI, and he wants me to play blindfolded? FistPumpFold.)

Bet $525 to win $610?

He has AA/KK min and sees the str and flush draws out there .. What do you have?

If he's that new to live poker then ask him if he wants to run it twice and watch the reaction. Did you teach him a lesson by calling? GL

Wow you give terrible advice

TT+, A9, most gutter + FDs.

99-88-33-J10d-A3d

2 pair+sets+bog combo draws.

i dont think i would call AKdd here.

given villains description as being a recreational player/noobish and prob overplaying WA/WB spots with marginal holdings and being shove happy overall, it looks like the player type who tries to "end it right here" and "not let you draw for free", all these oldskool thinkings coming into play here, i think his range is massively weighted towards made hands and not draws.
i wouldn´t put it behind a guy like him to show up with a weirdly played overpair here, so i think it´s getting close with hands like QQ+, although these being close folds imo. our hand actually matters in terms whether we block some of his hands or not, but given my read that it´s mostly a made hand, and being it a horrendous overshove, probably not a real marginal but quite a good made hand, i´d say minimum of 93+

That's what God and the sweet baby Jesus put me here for.

probably KK+. AKdd probably, too. JTdd, t7dd, and 76dd are also calls.

FWIW I spend a minute chatting with him to see how comfortable he is.

We don't have equity to be calling gutter+FD against even T9

99/88/33 maybe 98 depending on my week. I hate hate hate getting this many BB in pre against a guy who is just temporarily holding my chips with a hand that's less than 75% favorite.

I'd take drawing hands out of his range, I think you are playing against 1010+ up to 99. Ideal play would be to stove it with whatever range you think and call any +EV situation. I'm not a fan of getting money in at LLNL with small +EV big risk situations though.

33, 88, 99 ... maybe 98 .... And I guess if I can call with 98 that means I probably have to be calling with like JJ+, maybe TT, A9... Effff... I hate this spot a ton.

In the heat of the moment I probably call with sets only. Good for you is you are capable of some kind of sick bluff like that.

This. It might be slightly +EV to call with AA here, but at some point I'd rather have a big edge when big money goes in. This is one of those times where I prefer to have a bigger edge and thus my calling range is tighter.

Huge diff between holding JJ and 98 vs the described villain. If he range is mostly pairs (which, IMO, it is), there's a lot of AA-QQ in range for V here.

Plus 98 blocks his set combos down by a lot, making the call outright trivial.

Maybe we should do some actual maths here...we need like 45% or so to call

If V range is A9, TT+, 89 and sets we are crushing him with a range of

JT, QT, QJ, AK, 99, 88, 98, and 33

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,078,110 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JdTd, QdTd, QdJd, AdKd, 99, 88, 98, 33	70.03%	737,059	35,883
A9, TT-AA, 89, 33, 88, 99	29.97%	305,168	35,883

You want to remove A9...ok guess what we are still crushing

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

879,120 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JdTd, QdTd, QdJd, AdKd, 99, 88, 98, 33	66.91%	570,419	35,523
TT-AA, 89, 33, 88, 99	33.09%	273,178	35,523

OK now let's remove the spazz factor (which is absurd for a fishy noob) and just focus on his strongest value range we are slightly less than a flip with $90 dead

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

249,480 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JdTd, QdTd, QdJd, AdKd, 99, 88, 98, 33	46.92%	99,428	35,280
89, 33, 88, 99	53.08%	114,772	35,280

Jesus I'm rusty at this. Can I take back my post? Lol.

Given player description and what we know about him he probably overplays overpairs and I assume he would do this with 2 pair+. Throw in a couple of combos of A9 and strong flush draws since there's some non-zero % chance of those then I think the bottom of our range is KK+ and OESD + FD.

The problem is we don't have a range, we have 2 cards, and all that matters is how those two cards stack up versus his range.

It's a much better exercise to run Villain's range versus us holding:

AKdd
76dd
ATdd
QTdd
98
TT
AA

as examples of spots we may or may not want to call.

^^True enough...

I would consider calling with top two pair and better

Maybe I'm very suck at this game, but I don't give V credit for KK/AA and probably QQ until he proves me wrong. If I do I better have a pretty good tell such as V hesitated like he was going to raise before he completes in the SB or V is breathing heavy, etc. otherwise, ya, I'm not giving him much credit for those hands.

Didn't mean to annoy/confuse with the unknown hand, but thought it might be a better discussion without.

Actually had the two black tens in this spot. Chose to fold, but didn't really like it.