Quote:
Originally Posted by $tack$Poker
I was very perplexed by the lead. And perhaps I was giving him too much credit for having the “look” of a good player along with a large chip stack. The fact that he didn’t open limp and aggressively squeezed gave him a leg up on essentially the rest of the table skill wise lol.
Based on the feedback it seems like my biggest mistake was on the flop. Calling or folding were smarter than raising. I also should select my bluffs better. I was going to triple barrel if I turned a diamond but decided to shut down.
It is hard to study this spot because I imagine GTO nearly 100% checks as the villain here, but maybe I am wrong. I just need to be mindful not to aggressively spazz when people take unorthodox lines.
I am considering subscribing to GTO wizard and really nailing down optimal triple barrel bluff lines. I am a TAG and probably play a bit face up on later streets in bigger pots.
I've made similar mistakes in judging opponents' skill level based on appearances or where they were from. I think looking at how someone actually plays is a more reliable method for judging.
Countering donk-leads seems to come up a lot here. The general consensus seems to be that donk-leads are most often weak top pairs (or other 1P holdings) just trying to "see where I'm at", or draws trying to set their own price to chase. Which it most likely is, and how to respond, will often depend on the bet size and board texture.
Here, it's hard to say which it is. Maybe V deserves credit for betting a little over half pot on this fairly wet board, to keep us guessing. He could have a weak Kx, or Jx, or he could be on a draw. Either way, raising his donk-lead on the flop, when we're on a draw, and not really a strong one, is dangerous. Imagine catching a 9 on turn or river, and being up against QT.
We don't beat his Kx or Jx on the river, and one of the two most likely draws he might have been betting (QT / T9) got there. We're only beating QT and 7x, but he has those hands in his range, and he's probably not folding Kx, and maybe not even Jx, so checking back river seems fine.
Raising the flop might have slowed him down from betting turn and river, allowing you to get to showdown without having to invest more. But just calling the flop might have slowed him down too, so I think your flop raise probably costs you more than it makes you.