Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
Not sure what you guys are talking about in terms of c-bet. T-rag-rag is basically a pure check OOP with occaisional thick sizing repping AA-JJ imo. A-high can happily check to peel one and is often the best hand here at showdown.
OTT my thoughts were:
1. He could be stabbing with air when checked to twice (people often do that at my game when checked to twice), ergo A-high could still be the best hand and I'm bluffing with the best hand.
2. In terms of combos I unblock QJ and 78, this guy never limp calls TT, 99 pre, so his only premiums are 44 and 22 and T9s (8 combos).
3. When he bets the 9 OTT what value does he have that can continue? What does A9 do to a x/r? Feels like so much of his range has to fold.
4. I have my gutshot hope upon hope draw and sometimes an A will be good too.
Results:
Generally speaking, any flop that is 9-high and otherwise fairly disconnected is going to be good to attack, because top pair is likely to change and there are few if any big draws available. I would say this flop isn't very different.
When V limp-calls pre, he's not going to have many strong hands on this board, whereas we have an uncapped range as the PFR, and can rep all the over-pairs, as well as top set. The strongest hands in his range are going to be bottom/middle set or bottom 2 pair. So, yes, to your point, we can rep all the over-pairs, TPTK, and sets here, when he really can't.
If we c-bet this flop, we're continuing to tell the story that we have a strong hand, at least TPTK, that can target all of V's worse 1P hands for value. When we check the flop, that story starts to fall apart.
If we were checking flop to check-raise, or slow-playing top set, we'd likely just make a delayed c-bet on the turn, after the flop checks through. We wouldn't suddenly check-raise, unless we got there with exactly 99, that was too scared to c-bet this flop, for some strange reason.
When we check turn and V bets this board, he's saying he has some value that wasn't strong enough to bet the flop. That might be some top pair combo that didn't want to get trapped and face a x/r, but could often be some 9x holding, reducing your combos of 99 down to exactly 1.
The draws that V might have and that you un-block here are way less important than the value V might have that you also un-block. His value is Tx and 9x, which you do not block. In fact, his Tx and 9x combos will often have a J or 8 in them, making him less concerned about you out-drawing him with a hand like QJ or 87.
He could be stabbing with air, yes, but he could also check back and take his equity with his draws (QJ / 87), and some of his unpaired over-cards. He could also just be betting his hand for value and protection, putting you on air when you check to him twice.
You could be bluffing with the best hand, but if you weren't ready to bluff with might have been the best hand on the flop, why are you suddenly blasting off with it now, when you checked to him twice, and he bets? What over-pairs take this line, when V might have T9, and we really don't have much T9 in our range when we raise from the SB pre and then check this flop? It makes no sense.
The hands he can continue with is going to somewhat depend on stack depth. There's $175 in the pot when you x/r, he has to call off another $75, you started $900 deep, and he has you covered. So he's getting almost 13:1 implied odds to stack you if he continues. I'd be continuing with a $hlt-ton of hands, including the ones you think he should be folding out, like QJ and 87.
In his spot, if I smell BS (and I totally would when you take this line here, if I have 9x), I'd call too. So, the answer to the question, what value can he continue with, is literally every 9x holding, especially if his kicker removes some of the outs for your possible draws, and he thinks you might be off on some adventure, bluffing into value.
V's specific combo of J9cc is good to continue, because he wants you to be x/r'ing as a bluff when you pick up some equity with a combo draw on the turn. You could have a lot of XXhh that connected with the T in some way, and now picked up the backdoor straight draw and backdoor flush draw.
No offense, but it seems like you've under-estimated your opponent's abilities here, by a wide margin, if you're expecting him to fold all his good draws and any value when you take this dubious line.