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deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts? deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts?

08-08-2019 , 08:22 AM
I'm not sure if I played the turn right here so thought I'd share to get some opinions.

1/3 game, stacks are

V1 (LJ): 1000
V2 (CO): 900
V3 (BTN): 300

I'm on SB with AhAc, I cover all opponents.

LJ raises it to 20, CO and BTN calls, I squeeze to 130 from SB, LJ folds, CO calls and BTN folds.

Flop
4h2h2d

Pot (post-rake/high hand deduction): 280~

My standard line here would probably bet 90 with range but I have a small bit of history with CO who is an old dude who strikes me as a "by the books" (but bad) type of player, also somewhat on the calling stationy side so I opt to make a more exploitative sizing here given I'm at top of my range to 115. I think he calls 90-115 at the same frequency and it doesn't blow him off weaker pairs like a $150+ sizing would possibly do.

He calls and the turn comes Th.

I really don't like this card as the T smacks his range, which at this point I figure consists of maybe 1.5-2 combos of 67hh-89hh, 44-TT (though 44 is less likely maybe 1 combo), and possibly an occasional K9hh or KQhh (though the latter hand is more likely to 3b pre I think). That said we do pick up a FD and I figure if we check to him and he has a flush he's going to be betting bigger than I am anyway (in which case I'd have to fold since I never see him turning a pair into a bluff), he'd probably check back his 3 combos of TT as I think most weaker players tend to take this line in spots like this so I figure by betting 200 we get him to call again with hands like 77h-99h, and if he jams we can easily fold putting him on a flush. We bet 200 and he calls.

River is Jh.

I never put JJ in his range here so at this point I figure his range is 1 combo 44, 3 combos tt, maybe half a combo of either K9hh or KQhh and 9 combos 77h-99h. Bad players tend to get emotionally attached to big pots like this so I think its reasonable to assume he will bluff catch with at least half of his 77-99h combos. So we're behind 4 combos and I assume we stack at least 5 combos. Obviously I wasn't able to so concretely break down this spot in real-time and was assuming if we have any wrong assumptions about his range it would work in our favor (like him holding 2 combos of A2s for example and deciding to hero call river, or possibly having some additional weird suited Kx combos). With a little over half PTSB left I jam. He tanks for a couple seconds then calls.

The only other line I could have seen me taking here is checking the turn for pot control and making an exploitative fold vs a bet, as I don't ever see him having a bluff floating range. This could have also been beneficial in the case that he checks back turn, I bet river, and he jams as I don't ever see him running a bluff in a spot like this.

So I'm wondering whether the passive turn line would have possibly been more +EV or do you think my EV is higher as played?

Spoiler:
he had TT, not sure why he tanked lol
deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts? Quote
08-08-2019 , 08:37 AM
another thing I forgot to mention that I just recalled was that he tanked a little before the flop call, which I rarely see weak players do with a flush draw so I thought it was less likely he has 67-89hh at the time of my turn cbet
deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts? Quote
08-08-2019 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Bad players tend to get emotionally attached to big pots like this... so I think its reasonable to assume he will bluff catch with at least half of his 77-99h combos.
I really dont think its reasonable for a "bad by the books" player to overplay those hands for a 300bb stack on a 4 flush board. You decided to play for stacks with that flop bet which isn't bad by any means. Since you posted the V's hand I will sound biased but Id be putting him on AK or a big PP here, KQhh, QJhh is only 2 combos. T and J are terrifying. I dunno if a "bad abc player" is going to call $110 more with mid/small sc's or pp's.

I think hitting the turn FD just makes it destiny you get it in here, I am not putting this player type on a flush draw and its hard to even get a flush draw HU anyway. Id put him on 99-QQ, hope he had a high heart and play this like a 2 street hand.
deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts? Quote
08-08-2019 , 10:40 AM
There's always the serious risk of being results-oriented here.

That said, I'd go bigger on this flop as we're targeting underpairs 88-JJ and we block all the NFDs he would show up with. Our bigger bet is more polarized which I think is better on the flop as he may just "put us on AK" and call us down. As AAJTo observes, the specific combos of V's underflushes aren't numerous enough to consider and most are folding to your pre-flop squeeze anyway and the ones that don't will call with IO to stack us.

I guess that's why I don't like the turn bet. If he's got a T, we're screwed. We don't want to fold out 9h9x, JhJx-QhQx. Obviously, the rare times he already made the flush we're in big trouble.

AP: the river is indeed a jam targeting all his Qhx since you're never folding.
deepstacked 1/3, any thoughts? Quote

      
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