I'm not sure if I played the turn right here so thought I'd share to get some opinions.
1/3 game, stacks are
V1 (LJ): 1000
V2 (CO): 900
V3 (BTN): 300
I'm on SB with AhAc, I cover all opponents.
LJ raises it to 20, CO and BTN calls, I squeeze to 130 from SB, LJ folds, CO calls and BTN folds.
Flop
4h2h2d
Pot (post-rake/high hand deduction): 280~
My standard line here would probably bet 90 with range but I have a small bit of history with CO who is an old dude who strikes me as a "by the books" (but bad) type of player, also somewhat on the calling stationy side so I opt to make a more exploitative sizing here given I'm at top of my range to 115. I think he calls 90-115 at the same frequency and it doesn't blow him off weaker pairs like a $150+ sizing would possibly do.
He calls and the turn comes
Th.
I really don't like this card as the T smacks his range, which at this point I figure consists of maybe 1.5-2 combos of 67hh-89hh, 44-TT (though 44 is less likely maybe 1 combo), and possibly an occasional K9hh or KQhh (though the latter hand is more likely to 3b pre I think). That said we do pick up a FD and I figure if we check to him and he has a flush he's going to be betting bigger than I am anyway (in which case I'd have to fold since I never see him turning a pair into a bluff), he'd probably check back his 3 combos of TT as I think most weaker players tend to take this line in spots like this so I figure by betting 200 we get him to call again with hands like 77h-99h, and if he jams we can easily fold putting him on a flush. We bet 200 and he calls.
River is
Jh.
I never put JJ in his range here so at this point I figure his range is 1 combo 44, 3 combos tt, maybe half a combo of either K9hh or KQhh and 9 combos 77h-99h. Bad players tend to get emotionally attached to big pots like this so I think its reasonable to assume he will bluff catch with at least half of his 77-99h combos. So we're behind 4 combos and I assume we stack at least 5 combos. Obviously I wasn't able to so concretely break down this spot in real-time and was assuming if we have any wrong assumptions about his range it would work in our favor (like him holding 2 combos of A2s for example and deciding to hero call river, or possibly having some additional weird suited Kx combos). With a little over half PTSB left I jam. He tanks for a couple seconds then calls.
The only other line I could have seen me taking here is checking the turn for pot control and making an exploitative fold vs a bet, as I don't ever see him having a bluff floating range. This could have also been beneficial in the case that he checks back turn, I bet river, and he jams as I don't ever see him running a bluff in a spot like this.
So I'm wondering whether the passive turn line would have possibly been more +EV or do you think my EV is higher as played?