Deep 2/5, big multiway preflop pot with 24 suited - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

You are never bluffing in this spot, ever, LAG or not. At worst you have a flush draw or small pair and you're not going near PSB with a small pair. V probably goes broke here with AA every time given pot size. If you KNOW V has AA, he should be betting this flop 100% of the time and he will probably overbet shove flop a lot of the time too fearing a flush draw suckout. I think V's behind are folding everything but hands that beat you and flush draws when you lead out like this, and their ranges don't include many hands that beat you or flush draws....so why do you want them out of the pot? They may also fold non-nut flush draws on a paired board facing a huge bet and a shove over top. If V gets to bet first, they have to decide what to do before the action gets back to you. Even if the flop checks through, it's not a big deal because the pot is big enough to get it in, you're not really worried about flush draws in a 3b pot, and the only bad turn cards are 8's and flush cards, and the flush cards aren't even bad if V holds a bigger draw card.

All valid points, especially that I should have had faith in V's competence that he would bet his AA if checked to. I'm just accustomed to large preflop pots getting checked through in 1/2-2/5 games, since people seem scared to lose 200bb+, and then missing out on value.

So the the question - does your postflop line change if you're viewed TAG vs LAG?

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08-05-2015 , 10:31 PM

#27

smmcoy

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 367

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

you're not getting great odds.

if V actually has AA, you're barely getting the correct odds to call, as your getting 17.97% equity, you need 17.39% vs AA

seems pretty stupid to play in a 3bet pot OOP for 280bb with 42s, but whatever floats your boat

The Hero is not going to be ahead of aces on the flop anywhere near 18% of the time. Not even 9% of the time.

How are you going to identify the times that the flop is AT6 and Hero rivers a straight? How are you going to identify the times that Hero is going to river 2-pair?

If your calculations are going to be correct, the flop and turn are going to need to be checked 100% of the time. Then the Villain is going to need to call a large bet on the river.

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