Villain has about $1000 behind, hero covers.

Villain limps UTG+1, another limper, hero raises to 18 on the cutoff with 6c6s, aggrodonk BB reraises to 55, villain snap calls, hero calls as well.

Flop: Jh 10h 6h

BB checks, villain donks out 85, hero tanks and decides to just call.

Turn is the 4s, villain donks out 150 this time, hero decides to put in a raise to 450.

I just called the flop solely because I was extremely confused by what kind of PF range he could possibly be representing that donked out there, and decided to see what he does on the turn. I also thought there was a chance that aggrotard donk (had like 300-400 behind) would CRAI with a range I'd be pretty happy to get it in with against with bottom set, and would also give me more information on what exactly villain had.

Villain had previously done some fishy stuff like limp-call or limp-reraise with AJ+ and jacks, and while I didn't think it was impossible for him to have a suited connector that flopped a medium flush, the speed with which he insta-called the 3bet made me figure he had something a lot closer to a premium or any pocket pair, which thus made a flopped flush less likely.

The turn raise, while it felt right at the time, in retrospect might have been slightly spewy; while its designed for value for AK/AQ/AJ type hands with a high heart, I think we were too deep for me to try to get it in with bottom set on that board. I didn't really put him on a higher set or anything and I didn't think he had a flush any large percentage of the time, but I'm just not totally sure what the optimal play is when we're this deep.

When villain leads out deep stacked oop vs two players on monotone flop in a reraised pot and then barrels the turn an amount that allows stacks to go in on the river he is showing a tonne of strength IMO.

This deep in a reraised pot, I think we have two main options.

i) fold turn and wait for a better spot
ii) call, planning to fold to a large river bet unless we boat-up

I don't like committing 500bb on the turn because in my mind there are plenty of made flushes in villain's range here.

Folding the turn is just lol, it's like $150 into a pot of 475, which at that point almost gives me the bare odds to try to boat up not to mention I've got to be good some percentage of the time.

Let's assume that the flop is a call just because raising is probably not ideal due to, not my equity against villain's range, but simply for being multiway with aggrodonk left to act. But if the tells that villain gave off were more or less correct, then this is what pokerstove gives for the turn:

Board: Jh Th 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.985% 76.98% 00.00% 7215 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 23.015% 23.02% 00.00% 2157 0.00 { QQ-22, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs }


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So mathematically raising here seems fine, but at the same time obviously he will have some hands in his range that I didn't stick in there that might have flopped flushes. I thus just wanted to get feedback from the more experienced live players on this forum in regards to how they usually would play this or in what in their experience villains like these tend to hold more often than not.

For a little more info on villain, he's a pretty spewy regfish who's got a fairly big ego and will try to do dumb hero plays like checkraising 4x on super dry boards with air or bluffraising a bet and a call on the river yet is also sort of a station. I was pretty sure of my read though regarding the way he snap limp-called preflop implied the range I gave him above.

If you flat flop, flat turn

id just raise and get it in on flop tho

Pretty difficult considering HERO IS 500BB DEEP. Villain would have to be drooling all over his cards to stack off with just AK with the K on that board on the flop.

didnt notice they were so deep, seeing as we are so deep it's an even easier turn flat

I like raise/folding the flop. A sensible sizing is much easier if the BB has ~$400, because then we can raise to ~$230, and if BB 3bet jams it's not an underraise - meaning, if bizzarely villain calls BB's c/r, we have the option of rejamming to isolate his money. I'd much rather take control of the betting when playing this deep, esp. where live villains are so likely to "check to the raiser" on every street. This means that we're more likely to be able to check behind if a 4th heart peels on the turn, and it also means that it's a lot less expensive for us to take the betting initiative (compared to raising a turn bet).

Overall, my plan vs. BB is to get it in on the flop if he jams. My plan vs. villain is to vbet pretty big on at least 2 streets (as the board ran out in this situation, I'm betting a blank like 4s, and may very well slow down on lots of rivers, in part because draws get there, and in part because villain may never call a big vbet with worse even if the board doesn't improve).

Were you raise/folding the turn btw?

I raised the turn at the time because I felt so intuitively confident that he was donking out with an AhJ/AhK/AhQ based on our history, his turn betsizing (less than 1/3rd pot) and the physical tell preflop. While I wasn't too sure he was weak on the flop, once he fired the turn for that amount I felt fairly comfortable I had the best hand and thus raised for value. In the long run though the right play probably is, as others said, just flatting the turn for obvious reasons, especially if it was against an unknown that we have no reads against.

I just wanted to really breakdown each action and possibility in this spot because the fact that its a 3bet pot with 500bb stacksizes and an aggrodonk in the bb meant that there were a lot of ramifications to either option of calling and raising, so messing up here would be really costly. Plus the read I had on the guy did affect the hand a lot so I just wanted to discuss how things like that can change the way a hand might be played.

And maybe I misunderstood what csk30 said but saying that you like to raise/fold the flop is just lol, its like saying you like bluffing with bottom set.

Yes, because if villain 3bet jams this flop our bottom set is getting the 1.5:1 we need vs a live deep opponent's 500BB jamming range. Unless you had another unmentioned tell on villain of course, in which case feel free to do as you like.

Either way I don't think raise/folding turns your set into a bluff, but we can agree to disagree.

raise/folding flop is bad

Better spot, i.e. flopping a set on a rainbow board? I dont like folding or raising here, im just flatting the turn and evaluating the river.

The range that you have put villain on is way off. You think he 3bet/cbet 22+ AJo +???? This is more what i put his value range at, as always we should not discount bluffs in this situation so we can increase our equity slightly since there will be some hands almost drawing dead against us

Board: Jh Th 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.109% 55.97% 01.14% 16624 337.50 { 6d6s }
Hand 1: 42.891% 41.75% 01.14% 12401 337.50 { TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AhKc, AhKd, AhQc, AhQd }

Board: Jh Th 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.788% 63.79% 00.00% 842 0.00 { 6d6s }
Hand 1: 36.212% 36.21% 00.00% 478 0.00 { TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AhKc, AhKd, AhQc, AhQd }

I dont really understand how you can use a physical tell and betsizing to put him on 1p with the A here, i think this may be a typical "what did you have?" "I had x" "Ah i new you had that hand" that seems to happen in live poker a lot for justifying plays.

Another thing to think about is, when you raise the turn for about half the effective stack, what do you think his calling range is? And which of those hands do you beat? This is what i would put it at

Board: Jh Th 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.446% 26.45% 00.00% 128 0.00 { 6d6s }
Hand 1: 73.554% 73.55% 00.00% 356 0.00 { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, JJ-TT, AhKh, AhQh }

The reason i think his range will be so polarised in that spot is because he 3b pre so he's unlikely to have a lot of combo hands that would usually be tangling up in this flop

I pretty clearly said villain was not the one who 3bet in the hand, it was a player in the bb who did that ended up check folding flop. Villain limp-snapped 55 more, which considering my earlier observation of his preflop calling range gave me a clearer idea of what he might have.

You are right in that I sort of ****ed up my pokerstove since I accidentally put in his preflop calling range, not the hands he would donk/lead out the flop with since he would never do that with 22-99. That one was def my mistake.

However, while I do agree with the whole 'I knew you had that hand but I will call/raise anyway' mentality usually being how live people justify their plays, I actually did think it through on the turn and put it all together to determine that he most likely did not have the nut flush or second nut flush, and thus decided to put in a raise. Obviously somewhat high variance compared to just calling but it was like I said just a spur-of-the-moment read plus I already conceded that flatting the turn again is most likely a far better play in the long run.