Villain is someone I know from my uni. He's semi-lose preflop but becomes a nit post flop. For example I saw him 2 weeks ago tanking for 5 minutes (not exaggerating) before calling an all in shove with 33 on a 38jhh board when he had £300 behind. He's usually not getting it in on the river without close to the nuts.


Villain raises to £12 UTG+1. I look at 6 6 and call in CO. SB/BB calls. Pot is £48. I have £270 behind villain covers.

Flop
A 2 3

Checks around to me. I check back.

Turn
6

Checks to villain and he bets £25. I flat here because firstly I want to disguise my hand and put let him put me on an Ace/straight draw. Also gives SB/BB a chance to come in/raise over the top here. SB/BB fold

Turn
8

He bets £52. Hero?

Well it sounds like you did exactly what you wanted to do. IMO you need to raise this river, utg+1 I don't put him on 45 very often preflop raising in that position. You disguised your hand on the turn, it is likely he has a big ace. I would say raise to 125-150, if he has aces or eights so be it.

If he has a big ace or possibly 22/33 don't you think shoving river is better? This is the type of player IMO that, if he does have 22/33 will not 4-bet shove but instead flat, however I don't think he can fold to a shove. Also makes my hand look weaker if I shove I feel like I have a busted draw or possibly A8. I mean if he has 88/AA I can't fold anyway if he does 4-bet shove anyway.

shoving is fine, I just think there is a better shot for thin value. Way more combos of big aces or two pair than sets, if you min raise he is calling with a lot of his aces. I just don't have enough info to know that he will call a shove with a big ace. I'm definitely not folding in your position even if he raises, I might think about it but never folding. The other option is to call, you get to see his hand this way and gain more info, only problem is you lose value.

Min raise river, he will pay off 100% of the time. Make it 150 he calls 75%. Shove he calls less than 50% .

I actually made a pretty big error. Stacks were not £270 but £370 effective.

Hero raises to £120. Villain shoves AI. Hero?

raise river for value.
fold to 3bet all-in given his postflop image

What is villain's opening range? Some nittyish players always limp their pp. If he's only raising big aces then i call the shove. If he can raise 22-88 then you are in a ****ty spot. I mean he has a set here almost every time, just which set?

This was what I was thinking. I didn't actually make it £120 I shoved for £270. My reasoning was that if he has a set (only viable ones as played are AA/22/33) than he can't fold any of them and I'm sure he will just flat with 22/33. He's not a complete nit pre though so he could raise his PP and he's a relatively low level thinking player as seen in the past where he's made some donkish plays. So I tried extracting full value.

these numbers, although i dont know where you pulled them from, would be a case to shove

if he calls $181 more 50% of the time we make $90.50 in EV

if he calls $52 more 100% of the time we make $52 in EV

actually, i dont know if you're advocating for a min-raise or just letting op know how often you think he's going to get called based on what action he takes

i think shoving is clearly best, if villain is a nit postflop his range for betting strongly on the flop and betting bigish again on the turn should be very strong. because your hand is pretty disguised, i think you can get called by lower sets and two pair often enough to justify a shove

edit: oh, he raised UTG+1 which kind of limits his 2p/set hands. now i think you should raise smaller, maybe he's playing AK/AQ really weirdly? depends how wide he is opening preflop and if you think he could have 2p/sets

After the river jam, given the description and the line, AA is the only hand that makes sense to me. Raise UTG +1, Checks flop hoping that someone will lead, leads turn and river hoping for a raise. I think I can find a fold against described villain.

Outcome

He bets £52. I overbet shove for £370. He calls and has AA.