1/2 Weekend afternoon - room is packed

V - thirtyish hispanic kid - regular in the poker room - usually runs up a stack by being aggressive with a wide range but almost always leaves broke - after about 2 hours V has run his 200 stack to about 650 due to a combination of aggression, and a run of good cards - as he has been winning he has been openly talking startgey and has been needling other V's.

H - 30ish white kid - not a reg in this room, but V should know H - not a ton of history between the two - H has been super card dead and has topped off twice once his stack has gone from 300 to 250 - literally went three orbits without playing a hand - do not know if V has noticed


H is effective stack at 300

OTTH -

UTG straddle is on - one limp, V in CO opens to 20, H calls with KQhh, straddle calls, limper folds - should I have been 3!?

Flop (63ish)
7h6h6d

x,x,x - thoughts on a bet?

Turn (63ish)
7h6h6d4d

x, V bets 60, H calls, straddle folds

River (123ish)
7h6h6d4d3s

V x, H bets 85 - thoughts? I could make this bet with any pair between 8s-10s, and with missed flushes, I could have A5, 55, 77, 76, etc

Yes, you should 3B pre.

As played, bet 20%-25% pot on flop and barrel for 2/3 pot on turn.

Not crazy about this river bet. All the flush draws missed, and your straight draws probably aren't calling turn unless they're also flush draws, which isn't very many combos, if you're 3B'ing A5s pre. Never giving you credit for a boat, the way this was played.

Think I'd just check back. V is going to call a bet with most 1P+. We're going to win with K-high sometimes, when he was betting a flush draw that missed.

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If villain is the sort who runs up a stack and then goes broke why does he do that? Does he get more reckless, does he get careless, does he fail to adapt when the table adjusts to his play? Knowing what villain's cycle is and where they are in that cycle is really useful for beating this type.

Preflop. How many hands is villain opening in LP? How often does villain fold to a 3 bet after opening? Are they likely to 4 bet? Mostly though I expect a 3 bet is fine.

Flop. I would throw in a bet some of the time, say 2/3 or so. This is a bad flop to get folds but you have the draw and they both checked. Does villain like to come over the top if people bet when he was the preflop bettor? If so then I check and take the free card more often.

Turn. I would fold. Yes villain's bet has a good chance of being air but it's too big. If you do catch a flush you likely won't get paid enough and you are likely to have trouble bluffing villain on the paired board. If you wanted to bluff at this start on the flop.

River. Run out isn't good for a bluff. Villain isn't going to give you credit after you play passive. Villain likely calls with 1 pair or better.

Way too passive all around and your bluff doesn't seem very credible.

I'd call you w/ Ace high.

3bet pre. this is a great spot to make it $60-70 and then stack off with top pair or a FD.

as played, bluff depends on your image. probably works often enough if you look like a nit who never bluffs.

you need to raise the turn though and get villain off Ax.

Yes definitely 3bet. I would bet flop if checked to here. As played raise turn would be better than call and river bluff will probably get looked up by ace high and any pair.

Lots of good points

Results - V tanks for about 1 minute and makes the call with Q3o and wins with a 3.

I don't know if I would have been more upset if he called with that or Axhh...

You shouldn't be more or less upset. Ace-high and bottom pair are basically the same hand there. You either have something that beats those hands, or you have total air.

You played this hand very passively. If you're going to bet the river in spots like this, you generally need to have it, and not be bluffing, because opponents are going to look you up very light.

If you walk back through the hand, and consider how your actions look from your opponents' perspective - you didn't 3B pre, so you probably don't have an over-pair to the board, unless it's 88 (assuming you're 3B'ing 99+ pre), you didn't bet flop when action checked to you, so you probably don't have 88, and probably didn't flop trip 6's or pair the 7, yet you called a pot-sized turn bet, meaning you're probably on some sort of draw, likely a backdoor diamond draw, probably not a good combo draw with a 5 in it, which you might have raised. So the offsuit 3 doesn't seem likely to have helped you at all. Your range is full of a lot of busted draws that are just going to stab at it when action checks to you. The only value you're repping here is A5, and maybe 66.

With that hand-reading, I would call you down with any pair, and occasionally ace-high, if I'm unblocking Ad and Ah.

Alternatively, some show of aggression at some point might have won you the pot. Perhaps not immediately, but often with continued aggression.

For instance, if you'd 3B pre and c-bet the flop, repping a big over-pair, that might have taken it down right there. If not, barreling the turn might have taken it down. Even if you didn't 3B pre, betting flop and turn probably would have taken it down more often than not. Raising turn surely would have taken it down.

It's easy to say that in retrospect, when we know he had Q3o, and probably would have folded before the river. But some aggression on earlier streets would have helped define his range a bit more, and strengthened your range. Even if he got to the river with ace-high or Q3, he probably wouldn't have called off a river bet.

I fold turn to 2/3rds sizing

The aggressive people make money by having you play poorly. IN this case, you should have folded ages ago and now you're handing over money wiht nothing. Fold the turn. You have someone behind you. You know you'll be in for more. Villain can easily have a made hand here. Even if you bet river he can shove.