Quote:
Originally Posted by donkatruck
Pre is meh. Probably should fold.
I don't know what turn is though. Are you trying to make your hand look like a bluff? The board is as dry as a desert. You are probably only getting called by KK and if CO has it in his range A6s.
Most thinking players are going to fold here vs. your perceived image (weak / losing image).
Don't spare my feelings. I think we both know pre is worse than meh.
I didn't want to write too much about my reasoning for the turn bet. But, it was a combination of things.
1. If he has KK or got here with A6s, 65o or 55, he's just getting my money. I'm not getting away from my hand at this point.
2. My read on him is that he's not opening UTG+2 with A6s, and never 65o, or c-betting flop with 55, so I'm really only losing to KK and better 6X, but I don't think there's any better 6x in his range. He's not opening UTG+2 with T6s, for example.
3. He's in his late 20's / early 30's. I'm in my early 50's, and I'm stuck, possibly tilted. Maybe he thinks I'm a borderline passive-OMC who just flat calls AKo / KQ from the BB pre and is now over-playing TP, Or maybe he thinks I might be spaz-raising with 77-99, 87, 43, A5, etc. I'm sure he heard me talking about how I punted off the 2nd biggest stack two out of the money in the tournament I played earlier that day, so clearly I'm capable of torching money.
4. My remaining $600 stack depth is awkward. I want to raise, but raising anything less than 2.5x his bet (<$200) might look super-nutted, and anything over 3x (>$240) doesn't leave me enough remaining behind for there to be any perceived fold equity. This massive x/r-OB jam could look fishy AF, and in theory allows me to have a ton of bluffs, even if I don't have very many if any obvious / natural bluffs.
5. He could have AA / AK and think I'm could be over-playing KX. He could also have 99-QQ and not believe I'm over-playing KX or 6X. If he has 6x, it's most likely 76s, and I'm not sure he can fold trips here, when my line wouldn't appear to make sense, and I'm repping super-thin for value.
6. Regarding my bluffs - I could have A6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, and 64s in my BB defense range. I could be repping any of those hands with air, or turning some pair into a bluff. But I can't have 65s for a boat, and if he has 76s, he's beating 64s, so he's only losing to four combos of value, unless he thinks I'm only getting here with A6s, which is just one combo. If he has 6x, it's more likely I'm over-playing some Kx combo or bluffing, so I don't see how he can fold.
7. I've never x/r-OB'd 3x pot, but I heard the cool kids on the innerwebz talking about enormous OB's, and wanted to see what would happen.