Played this hand last night, creating some strat discussion with my neighbor at the table (not involved in the hand), and then later with the V.

I'll post the hand as played, but stick around for the reveal (I'll post it tomorrow), which is what stirred the discussion at the table.

2/5, $1k max, 9 handed.

Hero in BB with $650 - MAWG, probably a weak / losing image to start the hand, somewhat stuck on the session, mostly folding pre and post, or dragging small pots.

V in UTG+2 (covers) - late 20's / early 30's WG, seems like he's a thinking player and been playing pretty solid. Haven't seen him get out of line.

V opens to $20. CO (loose-passive OMC) calls. Folds to hero. Hero calls with 96hh. Yes, I know I should fold this, but you can't get un-stuck folding, so...

Flop - K66r. Pot $60. Hero checks. V bets $30. CO folds. Hero calls.

Turn - K66 5 full rainbow. Pot $120. Hero checks. V bets $80. Hero jams $600 into $200, so...kind of a massive OB.

I'm sure everyone will say fold pre.

Anyone playing the flop or turn differently? How and why?

Pre is meh. Probably should fold.

I don't know what turn is though. Are you trying to make your hand look like a bluff? The board is as dry as a desert. You are probably only getting called by KK and if CO has it in his range A6s.
Most thinking players are going to fold here vs. your perceived image (weak / losing image).

Don't spare my feelings. I think we both know pre is worse than meh.

I didn't want to write too much about my reasoning for the turn bet. But, it was a combination of things.

1. If he has KK or got here with A6s, 65o or 55, he's just getting my money. I'm not getting away from my hand at this point.

2. My read on him is that he's not opening UTG+2 with A6s, and never 65o, or c-betting flop with 55, so I'm really only losing to KK and better 6X, but I don't think there's any better 6x in his range. He's not opening UTG+2 with T6s, for example.

3. He's in his late 20's / early 30's. I'm in my early 50's, and I'm stuck, possibly tilted. Maybe he thinks I'm a borderline passive-OMC who just flat calls AKo / KQ from the BB pre and is now over-playing TP, Or maybe he thinks I might be spaz-raising with 77-99, 87, 43, A5, etc. I'm sure he heard me talking about how I punted off the 2nd biggest stack two out of the money in the tournament I played earlier that day, so clearly I'm capable of torching money.

4. My remaining $600 stack depth is awkward. I want to raise, but raising anything less than 2.5x his bet (<$200) might look super-nutted, and anything over 3x (>$240) doesn't leave me enough remaining behind for there to be any perceived fold equity. This massive x/r-OB jam could look fishy AF, and in theory allows me to have a ton of bluffs, even if I don't have very many if any obvious / natural bluffs.

5. He could have AA / AK and think I'm could be over-playing KX. He could also have 99-QQ and not believe I'm over-playing KX or 6X. If he has 6x, it's most likely 76s, and I'm not sure he can fold trips here, when my line wouldn't appear to make sense, and I'm repping super-thin for value.

6. Regarding my bluffs - I could have A6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, and 64s in my BB defense range. I could be repping any of those hands with air, or turning some pair into a bluff. But I can't have 65s for a boat, and if he has 76s, he's beating 64s, so he's only losing to four combos of value, unless he thinks I'm only getting here with A6s, which is just one combo. If he has 6x, it's more likely I'm over-playing some Kx combo or bluffing, so I don't see how he can fold.

7. I've never x/r-OB'd 3x pot, but I heard the cool kids on the innerwebz talking about enormous OB's, and wanted to see what would happen.

There is 280 in the pot and 480 for him to call. So raising 4x his bet, 1.7x pot.

I kind of like it, because like making it 240 and then shoving the river looks stronger.

Hmmm. I guess with your image it's not terrible, but there's not a lot he can call with. I mean, there are no real draws for you to be jamming. Just hope he calls w/ AK or AA or that he was getting cheeky and raised with 67 (and misses).

Maybe I'm doing the math wrong.

V opened to $20 pre. CO and hero called. That's $60.

He bet $30 on flop. CO folded and I called. That's another $60, for a total of $120.

He bet $80 on turn. That makes the pot $200, no?

I started with $650. I called $20 pre, and $30 on the flop, leaving me $600 when I jammed over his $80 bet, no?

Even if we reduce my $600 jam by $80, that's $520 more for him to call. But from our seat, our $600 jam is a 3x pot bet, no?

But, yeah, if we raise $200 (2.5x) to $320 (4x), I'll only have $280 to $400 behind, when the pot would be $520 to $760. The only way I'll have any bluffs in my range is if I only raise to $200 on turn, so we can jam $400 into $520, risking a loss of value if he finds a fold.

280 on the turn if you call his bet, so you are pushing 480 into a 280 pot.

Knew you were a smart lady. You're creeping up on something here.

Let's just say he did have 76s. He may only have 3 outs to win, but he's got 22 outs to chop - 4 A's, 3 K's, 4 Q's, 4 J's, 4 T's, and 3 5's. That's about a 50% chance he'll catch up to win or chop on the river.

I think if I jam, I'm somewhat indifferent to him calling with a worse 6x, if he has any 6x. If he does, then there aren't very many 6x combos I could have, and he may be more likely to call.

He's got a lot more AA / AK and other PP's in his range I could be targeting, but then I could have a lot more 6x, and I need more bluffs.

My only "natural" bluffs are straight draws with 87 or 43, assuming I'm defending the BB that wide, which I could be (and probably would be, knowing me). But when my image sucks, maybe I'm turning something into a bluff, or over-playing some worse value, like AKo / KQo.

If you've seen my other threads, you know I'm capable of WAY over-playing KQo from the blinds. Not that he would know that, but my read was that he was good enough to know how FOS I could be here.

If he knows you could be FOS, that's great. And he's never folding a 6

Does he stack off w/ a K here?
Doesn't seem like he has many or any bluffs since you're showing interest on the flop.

I guess kind of depends what he does w/ his Kx and AA vs other lines.
You cooler 76 and that's about it as even 65 has now drawn out on you.

I feel like calling and maybe donking river probably gets more money overall.

But if he's kind of the level of thinking where he doesn't think you'd ever jam a 6 here and levels himself into calling wider I guess that's a plus.

I can't answer your question about stacking off with Kx until tomorrow.

Wait, was that rhetorical? If so, uhm...I don't know, but I think he might level himself into calling with AA. My thinking was that if he had AA, he's unblocking all my Kx, and might be more inclined to think I'm over-playing Kx, because I could have a lot more random Kx in my range than random 6x that suddenly decides to blast off here.

If he has AK / KQ, it's harder for me to have a worse Kx, but I could have a lot of KXo, like K9o-KQo that was too stubborn to fold pre and on flop. If my image sucks, I could be equally likely to jam with a worse Kx or 6x.

I don't think he has any true "bluffs" here, because there are no draws other than 98s and 43s, and I doubt he's opening 43s UTG+2. I'm not even sure if he would open 65s UTG+2, but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't open 65o.

I can't remember the exact suits with certainty, but I'm pretty sure there were no 65s combos available, for either of us. I should have made that more clear in my OP. But even if there was a combo of 65s available, it's just one combo.

He has AA / KK / AK / KQ in his range, obviously, but I think he's capable of c-betting and barreling with all the KX he'd be opening, probably KJ and KT at a minimum, maybe K9, and he could be playing some high-low KXs combos that might bet thin for value.

I thought about flatting and donking river. The problem is that I would HAVE to donk river, into a smaller pot, and that check-call, check-call, donk-lead line looks really strong, and has no bluffs here, unless maybe the river is an ace I want to try to rep, to get him to fold Kx.

Also - if he has 76s, he's got 3 outs to win, but another 22 to chop. My 96 is only coolering his 76 less than half the time (about 43%). He'll catch up about 7% of the time, and we'll chop about half the time.

Yeah I agree w/ the donk river line looking strong, but I think it gets the money from KQ more often than a turn shove, but yeah idk.

It's a brain twister.

If I donk-lead the river, what are my bluffs? What are my bluffs on the turn? It's all air or some PP I'm turning into a bluff.

I don't want him to fold KQ, obviously. If we donk-lead the river on an ace, he might fold. But an ace would be the only card I would likely try to rep as a bluff, precisely because it might get him to fold KQ.

If the river is any other card, what can I rep as a bluff that would be trying to get KQ to fold? What bluffs do I have then that I don't have now?

Why not try to make him think I'm bluffing now, instead of taking a chance that the river is an ace and he folds KQ when I donk, or he stops to think about why I'd jam an ace when he has AK?

It would be $280 if I called. Or $200 if I fold. Before I put any more money into the pot, it's just $200. When I Jam for $600, the pot is $800. If he folds, it's still $800. If he calls, it's $1320.

Where does the $480 come from? Even if he's just looking at it as the amount above his $80 bet, that would be $520, not $480.

We're risking the $600 we're shoving to win the $200 already in the pot, so I see it as a 3x pot bet. That's how I remember every book I've ever read about poker framed it.

He's got to call off another $520 to win $800. So he's getting a little bit better than 1.5x to 1. He's got to win around 61% of the time to make this a profitable call for him.

No matter how you view it, it's a big over-bet, which is very polarized between the nuts or nothing.

Results:

Obviously not good versus this villain, since he literally was folding any worse hand.

If we want to be results oriented, you could say it was a bad jam, since this particular V was good enough to find a fold. But that's assuming we would have scooped.

I think most V's are going broke with 76s there. I've actually been in similar situations many times, against other opponents holding trips with worse kickers, and they invariably just went with their hands. So did I, usually, when I was on the wrong side of the cooler.

The only time I can remember being able to find this fold after flopping trips was in a multi-way pot, facing a raise over my bet, and an all-in jam over that. Even then, I had a lower kicker, and the first raise was from an OMC. Both those factors made my decision easier than V's was here.

I don't think the jam was all that bad, even though he folded, because we only had about 43% equity to win outright. Making a play that avoids a chop half the time and avoids losing our stack 7% of the time can't be too terrible.

I'm not sure if this is right, but I think my jam is higher EV than calling and getting stacks in on the river, assuming we can get stacks in, and he never folds at that point.

If we jam and he calls, we chop the CO's $20 pre-flop call 50% of the time (+$10 EV), win the additional $520 we had behind 43% of the time (+$224 EV), and lose our whole $650 stack 7% of the time (-$46 EV), for an aggregate EV of +$188.

But if he folds, we take down the $200 in the pot now. So, clearly, if we jam, we'd prefer he fold, not call.

If we flat call and can get stacks in on the river, the EV is just +188. But if we can't get stacks in when we're ahead, or if we're only getting stacks in when we're beat or chopping, it's much less.

Like, say we donk-lead river, and he folds all his AA, all his KX, and all his unimproved PP's, and will only call with 6x if he boats up or if it's a chop. That would seem to make flat calling -EV, no?

We'd be calling his $80 turn bet with three possible outcomes - winning nothing more than the $200 already in the pot when he folds, chopping $20, or losing our whole stack.

Yes, if we can get stacks in on the river, and if we win, we'll win more, but we won't always win, and it doesn't seem like we'll win often enough to make calling and trying to get stacks in on the river a better play than just jamming turn.

Jam is good vs his exact hand, your basically jamming to fold out chops which worked perfectly but i doubt that was your thought process when you jammed in game.

Neat hand. I didn't have any 6s in his range reading your OP, and instead a lot of Kx or even AA. I therefore would've expected a lot of sigh-folds from your turn check-jam. 'Who knows what kind of garbage 6 an overcalling BB has here,' that sort of thing.

Thinking a lot of Vs would be checking back turn for pot control on this dry of a board, and with the range I stated above, so why not donk turn yourself? V ended up betting anyway, so no worries, but I don't think he does that with most of his range. Except 66-55, 76s and 65s, ofc.

But yes, fold pre lol.

Hell no. I was hoping he'd call with his entire range. All his pairs are drawing to 2 outs.

76 actually has more equity than anything else in his range that I was beating, and it's the one hand I didn't think he could ever fold.

I was giving him a fairly tight / strong range opening UTG+2. Once he c-bet flop and the CO folded, but I called, I thought there was a reasonably good chance he'd put me on a weak Kx, and continue to barrel with AA / AK, or 6X.

Epilogue to this story, in case anyone cares. I ran into V again this past Friday, and we had a quick and friendly discussion about this hand.

He said he'd been watching me play, and since he hadn't seen me get out of line, he didn't think I had any bluffs in my range. I told him he was giving me too much credit, and he should stop, because I get out of line more than a toddler on a sugar rush.

He mentioned again that I could have 55 here, despite my assurances that I'd never flat-call pre and flop, and then check-raise-OB-3x pot jam turn with 55.

I pointed out I could have called in the BB and shoved with 64s, or we could be chopping if I had 76s, not to mention all the over-cards to my kicker that would make it a chop. I said I ran the numbers for our specific hands through an equity calculator, and his fold was actually marginally higher EV for me than if he called, so I was happy he mucked.

This kid being pretty sharp, he pointed out that other than 64s, there weren't many, if any worse 6x hands I could have there, and if I had a better 6x, the higher my kicker was, the fewer cards that would give us a chop, progressively lowering his equity as my kicker got higher.

That led us to discussing the highest EV strat for these types of kicker-over-kicker scenarios. The somewhat obvious conclusion being that whenever we probably have the best (or at worst the same) kicker, the lower our kicker is (the more likely a chop), the more we should be jamming to push our opponent off a potential chop.

So, 76s is an automatic jam, whereas A6s is almost never a jam. Every other 6x combo from 86 to Q6 is either a call or a jam at some frequency based on how high or low our kicker is, and I guess how likely it is to even be in our range (assuming J6 and Q6 are infrequent BB defends).

Jamming to avoid a chop also has the benefit of not forcing us to be concerned about our opponent boating up on the river with any pocket pair.

If you are Mike Postle and you know his hand a jam is good here because we want a fold and are sort of agnostic to a call.
But there is 1 combo of 67s even if you weigh his value hands evenly. He has way more AK/KQ/AA/KJs as I suspect he is not raising 67s 100% of the time. Also he has 3x as many KK as 67s. Against his entire value range not to mention any bluffing range it's sub optimal.

All true.

My hand reading kicked into high gear when he c-bet half pot into the OMC in the CO and me in the BB. I didn't think he'd do that with KK. We'd seen CO limp/call pre with AK and KQs. I thought he'd check to let CO stab at it with all his Kx combos, or induce me to donk lead turn with whatever if the flop checked through.

This probably isn't optimal, but when he barreled 2/3 pot on turn, I was giving him an extremely narrow range of AA, AK, KQ, and 76s. But using the same logic above, I thought he was weighted heavily towards 76, unblocking all the Kx combos CO and I could have that the CO would bet on flop and I'd donk lead on turn. His AA and KX combos might slow down on turn after I call flop, because I could have so much 6x in my BB defense range.

AA, AK and KQ and any other 1P hands are drawing dead to 2 outs, and 76 is winning outright or chopping half the time, so of course I should want him to call with his entire range. I could have and maybe should have just 2.5x check-raised to $200, to induce him to jam.

But is he really jamming AA and Kx, which gets crushed when I snap with 6x, or is he only jamming 76, which is only going to win or chop half the time?

The problem with the logic there is that if I shouldn't jam because he might fold AA or 76, then I also shouldn't hope he'll jam AA or 76 over a min-raise. What hands do I have that min-raise or jam? What hands does he have that call a jam or 3B jam over a min-click check-raise?

My only other choice is to flat call. But when I do that, what does my range look like? I either have KX or 6X, and I'm not getting a call from AA, AK, or KQ if I donk huge on the river. I might not even get called by 76, since he found the fold vs my turn jam. The only way he'll put more money into the pot is if he boats up on the river.

In game, my jam was a bit of a hail Mary, hoping he'd think I lost my mind and was jamming Kx or some middling pair that blocks his 6x combos, most likely 77, since 55 would have been a boat. I thought he might level himself into calling with AA, Kx, or 76. I didn't think he'd ever find a fold with 76, and didn't realize until after I started this thread and did the math that I should actually want him to fold.

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