Just had a wild hand in a live 1/2/3 game, and I'm curious if I played it too nitty or if I should've taken a different line.
I'm UTG and raised to $10, and almost everyone called. The button, with a stack of around $180, then 3-bets to $30. The SB folds, BB calls, I fold, and everyone else calls. We end up going 7-ways to the flop.
Flop: Qh9d2c
It checks to the button, who bets $50. UTG+1 (with a ~$200 stack) calls, and the LJ (also with ~$200) calls.
Turn: 3s
It checks to the button again, who bets $80. UTG+1 calls, and LJ shoves all-in. The button calls, and UTG+1 calls as well.
River: 3h
LJ shows Kh9h, button shows AcKd, and UTG+1 mucks.
Here's my dilemma: I folded QTs UTG pre-flop. At the time, I was debating between 3-betting or folding after seeing everyone call my $10 raise and the button only raising to $30, which felt super weak. The table was full of limp-callers, and I was concerned about navigating the hand post-flop with so many players behind me.
So, was folding QTs too nitty in this spot? Should I have considered a 3-bet pre-flop, or would calling the $30 have been the better play? The hand felt right on the edge of my UTG 3-bet range, but the situation seemed tough to navigate with the whole table still to act.

The button 3bet and you're considering a 4bet I believe.

Raise larger, 10 could work at a straight 1/3 at some tables but with extra dead money from the blinds you're going to struggle to get this heads up a lot. In a 3-blind pot QTs from UTG is borderline in any case (perhaps OK for a smaller size). The 3bet is a ridiculous size but I don't want to get bogged down 4-6 ways OOP with QTs when people are only 60BB deep. So folding is fine. If you're not folding this, what hands in your UTG open range are you folding? Don't 4bet it either

You know the game you're in best, but if you call preflop and call flop, are you calling turn with so much action on it?

I mean, button was the 3 bettor, then he cbets and gets raised OTT?

In the game I play, a pair of Qs with a T kicker is never good there.

Preflop, I would say QT is a bit ambitious to raise UTG at a 9 handed table, but again, you know your game better than I do. If I was getting a bit spicy with this, it would for sure be to release to a 3 bet.

I agree, the only argument for 4 bet is button's super weak 3 bet and all the dead money out there, but even that QTs is probably not ahead of button's weak 3 bet range, so QTs is really a bluff 4 bet. Also the button's stack is only 150 left after his initial 30 raise and the pot is already at 90. I'm basically 4 bet all in ISO button here.

QTs is a marginal open UTG. Calling the 3-bet would have been terrible, and your consideration of it given how the hand went down is very results oriented. Turning it into a bluff and attacking the string of callers with a big 4-bet might be defensible, but given how action the table seems to be, it's a very high variance move. Folding is definitely the standard play.

Assume button is AK, and will fold all AKo to a 180 shove and call AKs, and all other player will fold to 180 shove, is 4 bet QTs 180 a profitable play?

If you have the magical power to narrow down your opponent PF to exactly one or two hands, I assume you could play 72o for profit.

Dont post results in OP, and tell us your hand at the beginning of the post, not the end for ease of readability.

Your raise sizing is way too small for a loose game, and the larger your sizing, rhe tighter your range should be, so you could maybe just fold QTs pre.

Top pair no kicker is basically a nothing hand going like 7 ways. I have just check folded it on the flop before depending on Vs.

If your assumptions are correct 4 betting ANY two cards is a profitable play. Given the hand action you describe your assumptions are wrong.

I mean yeah, assuming that we're also assuming that all the other Vs will fold. But while we're assuming, why not just assume that the flop will come Js9sKs and we flop a straight-flush against V's TPTK?

But just to do the math for you, if you shove under the only have to worry about BTN assumption, the he has AK assumption, and the he only calls with AKs assumption (likely the worst assumption of the three, as most players will call with AK almost always in this obvious squeeze spot), it looks like this.

75% of the time, everyone folds and you win ~120 (hard to tell with the info "almost everyone calls") for an EV of $90.

25% of the time, you risk $170 by shoving and he calls with AKs. When that happens, 63.22% of the time you will lose your $170 (-107.47) and 36.78% of the time you luckbox a win of the $120 that was already in the pot and the $150 more that V put in (+99.31) for an overall expectation of losing $8.16 whenever he calls.

So 75% of the time you win 120 and 25% of the time you lose (on average) $8.16. (.75x120)-(.25x8.16)=90-2.04= an EV of +$87.96 on this play, given those assumptions.

But! They are bad assumptions. BB already called a 3-bet, so he has something to worry about. LJ called the 3-bet with K9s, so we know there are other players with some gamble in them. And BTN folding AKo there seems really unlikely. I showed you the math to give an example of how to do an equity calculation that includes FE, but don't take from that the idea that this would have been a great shove.

I really appreciated the math breakdown—super helpful! I’m adjusting my assumptions slightly.

Updated Assumptions:
Let’s consider the button’s range as AJ+, 55 to TT, excluding JJ to AA due to the weak 3-bet sizing.

Button's Full Range:
Broadway Hands (AJ+):
AJo (12 combos), AJs (4 combos)
AQo (12 combos) → reduced to 9 combos due to Q♠ blocker.
AQs (4 combos) → reduced to 3 combos due to Q♠ blocker.
AKo (12 combos), AKs (4 combos)
Pocket Pairs (55-TT):
55 to TT (6+6+6+6+6+3 combos) → reduced by 3 combos for TT due to Q♠ blocker.
Total Combos: 48 (Broadways) + 33 (Pairs) = 81 combinations.

Pot Size and EV Calculation:
The pot size before I shove $180 is $86. Assuming everyone else folds except the button, the pot would be $386 if they call.

I assume the button calls with 88+ and AQs+, which totals 34 combos (15 pocket pairs + 3 suited broadways + 16 offsuit broadways). This represents about 42% of their range. Against this calling range, QTs has roughly 28% equity.

So the EV calculation looks like this: 58%×$86+42%×(28%×386−150)=$30

Breakeven Fold Equity:
Solving for the breakeven fold equity, we find it’s around 35%, which equates to about 27 combos out of the 81 in the button’s range.

Under this assumption, the hands likely to fold include 55 to 77 (18 combos) and AJo (12 combos), which add up to 30 combos—slightly exceeding the breakeven point.

Conclusion:
Your analysis was incredibly inspiring and got me thinking more deeply about the situation. Based on these reasonable assumptions, if I’m willing to embrace some variance, then a 4-bet shove here appears to be a decent option.

QTs is the bottom of my range for opening in the first place and there ain’t no shame in folding the bottom of your range to a raise.

Given the small sizing and how small our call is going to be relative to the eventual pot going to the flop, calling with a hand that realizes its equity well (and mitigates its positional disadvantage) like QTs is potentially defensible, but you have to consider you’ll run into a backraise a decent amount of the time and realize none of your equity.

Your 4bing range in this spot should be very linear given your position and the looseness of the table, so since we’re at the very bottom of our initial range (much less continuing range), we should be very disinclined to 4b with it, all else being equal.

Flop changes nothing because retrieving your cards from the muck is forbidden in most rooms.

I don’t understand this post. By its very nature Are you suggesting that you had you seen the flop you would’ve called down the whole way with Queen Ten, and then won the pot. And your lamenting not having won the pot with Queen Ten?

Folding pre is standard. Even if you’d have called pre calling all the way down post had the action stayed the same would have been a pretty big punt.

If you’re isolating w/QTs then making a pair is a good think. If you’re playing a MW pot you’re doing it to make a straight or flush or dummy into 2p, not at all to make top pair mediocre kicker. Have a plan.

I'm debating between 4 bet pre as an exploit based on button's weak 3 bet size vs just fold?

The problem is that you're not just playing against the button's weak 3 bet, you're playing against the whole effing table, including BB who has already called a 3-bet.

Most players having 75bb in this game is going to be high variance.
Would be open raising bigger if this is the kind of action that is happening for a 3x.
Mostly shove or fold after a bunch of calls and the small 3bet and two cold calls.
Maybe it's a sigh call with pairs you don't want to shove.

Brother if you open to 10 UTG and "almost everyone calls" and a fish 3bets to 30, you have to call. Probably every single hand you need to either call or 4bet. You could fold if you opened 10, no one called, and the button 3bet 30. Or you could fold if you opened 10, got 5 callers, and button 3b to 80. And we SHOULD fold more with the presence of cold callers. But here with all the dead money, you're getting better odds than if he 3bet you to 20 and it was heads up.

I had a similar spot today. I raise AQo from utg to 10 in 1/2. A fish from the SB raises to 25 of a $200 stack. I call. I would normally fold this to a $40 raise, maybe even 30 from SB (would mainly fold to $30 if an IP player 3bet). You have to realize you're getting an amazing price and these players that don't even understand raise sizes are going to make massive mistakes postflop.

dont think this is right. your aq hand example has little in common with the hand in question.

i dont see any reason to think we should be 4betting button here overly light. think your equity realization 8 ways at spr 1 is pretty trash w qtss, esp if buttons range is tight

What flop are you hoping for if you call and it goes 6 ways? If you hit a pair you're almost certainly behind. If you hit a flush (/draw) great, but it'll be the third nuts. You'll only really happy with a straight (/draw) and it's a one gapper not a connector so that'll be rare. You're not going to realise your equity and RIO is real.

My biggest concern at a "crazy" game with a half dozen players left to act all sitting on stacks that are short relative to the size of the pot is that you're going to face a backraise a lot more than you'd like. Making a pot odds call only to fold before the flop is a redline killer.

submersible also makes an astute point that QTs is going to play a helluva lot like QTo in the specific postflop scenario we're getting ourselves into (aside from the prospect of occasionally flopping a close to 0EV flush draw).

What dead money? Everyone called.
Yes, we are calling $20 into a pot of $240 ... so technically we only need 8.5% equity or something, and we have that...

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 QxTx
PLAYER_2 5%
PLAYER_3 10%
PLAYER_4 15%
PLAYER_5 20%
PLAYER_6 20%
PLAYER_7 20%
PLAYER_8 30%
264568 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
QxTx	9.5072%	8.8801%	1.4314%	23494	3787
5%	18.2174%	17.5664%	1.5236%	46475	4031
10%	14.0212%	13.3452%	1.5792%	35307	4178
15%	12.6513%	11.9145%	1.7118%	31522	4529
20%	11.6376%	10.9401%	1.6253%	28944	4300
20%	11.5900%	10.8921%	1.6298%	28817	4312
20%	11.5438%	10.8615%	1.5962%	28736	4223
30%	10.8314%	10.1970%	1.4960%	26978	3958

...but we have to play correctly post (vs. at least 3 Vs and more likely everyone) where it'll be less than 1 SPR.
If you play well (or more likely just get lucky) it's maybe breakeven ... but you'll be in lots of spots where you hit this flop and someone has AQ and you wonder wtf you get coolered so much.


That's a bit different, you only have to outplay a single player and the SPR will be over 3.
Although to be fair lots of fish here will have more like top 2% of hands, so we might be more like 30% equity and even this is marginal.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 AxQy
PLAYER_2 5%
965739456 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AxQy	35.6283%	32.7489%	5.7586%	316269492	55613520
5%	64.3717%	61.4924%	5.7586%	593856444	55613520

good evidence to show this the pot odds thing is wrong is look at any preflop sim and compare vpip for bb closing action hu vs a single raise compared to overcalling. alternatively look at something like mp open btn call and then blinds squeeze and look how mp's strategy changes while sandwiched compared to mp open facing 3b despite better pot odds. you play tighter despite better odds because it becomes much harder to actually realize equity / win hands / make good decisions when there are multiple people.

here it's kind of weird because btn sqz is comically small.

would think the best option here pre would have been to open limp with this hand or i guess fold but there's no way id be looking to open fold vs this lineup

Title says "Crazy ... Game" but without any additional information or reads explaining what makes this game crazy. Lots of raising or reraising of ATC? How many hours/hands? Any other hands of interest? It's easier to suggest an exploitative style or whatever strategy with a better explanation of what constitutes crazy here.

Sure, this is a wild hand. But I can have a relatively chill 1/3 table session where a blooper of a hand like this happens at least a couple times. It seems like we're all assuming every hand is going like this, especially with the assumptions you're making, but stack sizes make me think this isn't exactly the case.

But in general where a game is cray cray, a hand like QTs is going to play way better with position than from EP.

It seems like you're getting FOMO on not having played this specific hand in this specific spot where it would have won, and that's not a good mindset for winning IMHO.

In a loose action game QTs from early position is going right into the muck. Upfront I'm thinking 77+, AQ+, ATs+, KQs, maybe KQo and AJo if people are really stacking off with weak dominated top pair hands.

In later position I would see flops with 66-22, smaller suited broadway and Axs. Just playing abc value poker unless you start getting a nut peddler reputation.