During this hand, at the inflection point, I thought, do I have the implied odds here? What are the reverse implied odds? I’m posting the hand because I’m not sure even now I know the answer.

V (covers hero) is 26 years old. He looks like a TAG grinder but has an early-position calling range preflop, mostly calling limps and sometimes calling bets, but generally folding or open-raising. He has 3bet twice in four orbits. Postflop, he showed down a winner once. The other times, he folded or got his opponents to fold.

Hero (315) is TAG.

OTTH

Hero opens to 10 with AdQd in the LJ. V in the HJ reaches for his chips and leans forward, then makes eye contact with the hero staring at him. He pulls back and calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop (20 after rake): 8c8d4d

Hero bets 10. V raises to 30. Hero?

V usually has 99-JJ here, given action and reads, imo. The paired board is a pain, as it gives him two more outs to a FH and takes one away from you (as well as muddying the waters with the other two of 9d-Jd, as you don't know which might be his FH completion), but I still can't see folding for a half-pot raise.

Forget implied odds, you have expressed odds. A and Q are usually clean outs, as well as 4 diamonds to go with the three that have RIO concerns. That's a 21.3% chance of hitting a clean out OTT, and your call would only represent 25% of the pot. Add in your 2 "handle with care" outs and you're at 25.5% to hit OTT (27.7% including whichever is also his FH completion). Obv, those create something of an RIO concern, and he doesn't always have the medium overpair I'm heavily weighing his range to, but we also should have some IOs here, at least enough to cancel out that pretty easy to read RIO problem.

I'm not committed to the hand here, and there's definitely poker left to be played, but I'm not folding for a half-pot raise OTF. I might even consider a raise.

I kind of like a raise here vs. this guy. Looks so strong, and if our A and Q are outs, we have the odds to gii. I don't mind a fold from him, either. If he shows up with an 8 in his hand besides 88 (maybe 89s), I'd be very surprised -- and read of TAG grinder might be a little off. He really can't/shouldn't continue with anything unless he was "trapping" pre with AA/KK, which I doubt.

If we just flat his raise, we rarely get paid when we hit and we give him control of the hand. Plus, the $10 bet on flop looks pretty weak, which is why he might have raised.

Also, why so small pre? Is that the norm? I guess I never go less than $12 in 1/2.

In a single-raised pot, with our stack depth, I think we could check this flop OOP, and call a 1/3-1/2 pot bet. We want to keep his range wide, to include worse AX and QX hands, small-middling pairs, and worse flush draws.

As played, when V raises our c-bet, I don't love any of our options. Our hand is too strong to fold. A raise would pot-commit us. We're only going to love a diamond turn, and not all of them. Assuming his calling range pre is 55-JJ, 2/3 of the diamonds could make V a boat.

I suppose I'd call, check to him on flop, see how large he bets, or if he checks back. If the turn is an A, Q, Kd, 3d, or 2d, I'd donk-lead for 2/3 pot.

If you do raise, I'd think it should just be a jam, for max FE.

FWIW - staring at an opponent is usually a sign of weakness. If V knows that, he may have put you on an un-paired Broadway combo, decided not to raise pre, and see a safe flop instead. I think Garick may be onto something - he could have 99-JJ.

It seems really difficult for V to call a raise on the flop by H with 99-JJ, which is why I like it.

Call or raise or both fine. Pocket pairs are fairly likely for v. Occasionally you may be against a flush draw you dominate. If he had a PP, you have like 14 outs. Stacking off on this flop would probably be okay.

Reach for your chips and lean forward and stare at villain. Then pull back and jam.

After you jam lean back and cross your arms especially if you are kinda old. That looks ridiculously strong

We are often small favorite, and given preflop indecision it’s likely he has overpair and wants to see where he’s at. So smash it in his face.

Results:

Hero folded. To everyone who suggested call or re-raise, thank you for the humiliation! I clearly left money on the table.

After the hand, I too concluded V had on 99-JJ. My heart sank when I saw in pokerstove that my equity on the flop was 50 percent. In the moment, I just didn’t have a plan for the turn if I whiffed and V bet. Thanks, Garick, for the point that I didn’t have to be “committed to the hand here” and that there was “definitely poker left to be played” in this hand.

I hope people believe me when I write that, even though I usually played badly in the hands I post, I’m playing most hands well enough to be up several buyins in a highly raked game. Thanks for teaching me.

If your equity was 50%, it's not a terrible fold, IMO. We can find a better spot, when our equity is higher.

Having 50% equity in a hand means you are hemorrhaging money if you fold, giving up a ton of dead money in the pot to your opponents. If I really believed I had 50% equity with a draw on the flop I’d usually 3bet.

Yup, this "wait for a better spot" notion is for tournaments, where if you lose your stack, you are done (and is overused even there). For cash, assuming that you are properly rolled, you can take the better spots and the marginally +EV spots, and passing up on "marginal" spots is a huge hit to your winrate.

If, for example, we had 50% equity in this spot, that would mean that we were donating 50% of the pot to our V. As there is already $40 in there that is completely dead, that means we lost $20 in EV by folding. That's an hour's worth of profit for a good player.

50% is quite a lot and it also doesn't factor in the frequency and hands that your villain will fold. So depending on the villain this number could sky rocket where not raising is a punt.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this thread: AQdd is sometimes the best hand here. Yes, Villain may be weighted to a medium pocket pair, but he may also have a hand like KJdd or 65dd. Both of these hands fit into Hero's read that Villain considered 3betting but ultimately flatted. If Villain has KJdd or 65dd, folding flop is a huge mistake.

I actually kind of like the idea of check/calling flop and turn with this hand, especially if we are unsure of how to play facing a raise OOP. You have showdown value on the flop here, and it's very possible that you dominate your opponent. By check/calling flop and turn, you ensure that you will see a river and realize your equity. You also give a young opponent some rope to bluff - especially when a diamond peels off, as Villain will not expect you to have the nut-flush draw when you check/call flop.

I know, I had a good read but played it horribly.

Getting "properly rolled" is something I'm working on... I played scared money perhaps because my bankroll is depleting, with the 6+3+1 rake/promotion/tip,...and errors like the one here.

I think when an v goes in the tank, staring can make hero give a tell. But I always watch the actions of my opponents as they bet and get ready to bet. If our eyes meet...maybe it's love.

So is this always a jam, not a call and re-evaluate, given the read?

No, what Dan said is also a reasonable way to go about it.

But the reason I like jamming is because I think it punishes them more as a lot of people like to do raises like this to freeze the action so they can check back turn and try to get to showdown cheaply.

It's also about sending a message to these punks who think they can raise for info.

This is so true. If continuing is greater than 0 EV and folding is 0 EV, and we can always rebuy, why would we wait for a better spot?

The other phrase I see potentially misused besides, "wait for a better spot," is, "it's not worth the risk." In a cash game, if we are properly rolled, the only thing that is not worth the risk is a play that is negative EV. So if bluffing 1,500 on the river into a pot of 1,000 gets people to fold 2/3 of the time, it is winning $167 and we should do it (unless bluffing a different amount is higher EV). Sometimes hearing, "it's not worth it," sounds more like, "losing 1,500 feels really bad."

This is a natural human tendency. We like asymmetric risk.

So things like pot odds feels intuitive. Sure I'll toss in a buck to maybe win ten.

But risking a lot to win a little when it's the correct play feels wrong which is why you see all these sayings touted around like common wisdom.

We are heads-up, out of position, the preflop raiser in a single-raised pot. We give up very little EV by checking our entire range, on this flop texture or any.

As played, we have way too much of a hand to give up. Call the raise. Do not reraise; doing so folds out the villain's bluffs and keeps in the hands that beat us.

I don't agree with the last part. A lot of people will absolutely fold hands better than Ace high.

Or they will call with dominated flush draws.