Playing live 3-300 spread. BTW I had to round some of the BB amounts.

Been playing for an hour, so I have some decent reads.

Fishy player $200 stack (67BB) raises for $6 (2BB) UTG
Older tight ABC player $200 stack (67BB) 3 bets for $25 (8BB) from Hijack
I'm sitting with $600 (200BB) and call $25 (8BB) from the button with 55.

I assume the fishy players is also going to call based on his tendencies, and he does.

3 way to the flop, $80 (27BB) in the pot.

Flop comes: 2 3 4 rainbow

UTG checks
Hijack bets $50 (17BB)
I call $ 50 (17BB) from the button
UTG folds

Turn comes and its a 5, so $180 in the pot (60 BB) the board reads:

2 3 4 5

Hijack bets $100 (33BB), and has $60 behind (20BB) behind.
So the pot contains $280 (93BB). I have him covered a few times over. I push all in with top set, and he turns over AA.

My thoughts at this point: My sample is small since I have been playing only an hour. Although, I have seen him call behind raises with AK and AQ. He does not seem to fire into a multi way pot without a made hand, specially out of position, so I believe the bet on the flop means I am facing a made hand. I'm assuming he has JJ+ so out of his 4 possible hands JJ, QQ, KK, AA, I am ahead of 3/4 of his range, and even by adding AK to the mix I am still ahead of 3/5 of his range. I'm assuming that an all in shove is getting max value from all the hands I beat, and I still have outs against AA and AK. So if I am behind when I shove all in, 1(5), 3(2's), 3(3's), and 3 (4's) give me 10 outs to win the hand. 4(6's) and 1-2(A's) lead to a chop. So I have roughly 15-16 outs not to lose the hand and 10 outs to win the hand on the turn. What are your guys thoughts?

fold pre. you make a set 1/12 times. you need to make 25*12= 300 every time you cold call here to break even

on the turn jj, qq, kk = 18 combos. ak, aa= 22 combos but do you really think he's firing at the turn with jj-kk?

I honestly think he may fire again with a big pair other than AA, since people at my level have a hard time getting away from big pairs. I can see the logic in folingd pre, though at my level most people rarely if ever lay down an over pair or TPTK. Typically the odds needed for set mining are not high enough though, at this level with 2 opponents, if one has an over pair or hits TPTK, the chances of stacking them are significant with a set. The following idea is speculative, but I believe the advice that the required odds to play small pairs goes down if people are almost always stacking off with TPTK or an over pair on most boards. The reason the are higher than they are is because the chances of getting paid off against better plays declines sharply.

looks like i had a brain fart in my previous post (too hot) but these are the maths:

you flop a set 1 time in 8 (on average). you invest 25. therefore to breakeven you'll need to win back 25*8= 200 every 8th time you do this (on average the amount of times you flop a set)

ok, so fair, you stand to win 200+ 4.5+6+25=235 at the time you're deciding whether to invest in this hand. so youve decided youre always get paid when you catch your set then youre making 235/8-25=4.375 per hand. ok fair enough. although if he's 3 betting jj then he might not stack off if he no longer has an overpair and same for qq and kk

for jj its 57% they'll have second pair or worse, for qq its 41, for kk its 23

then the average is (43+59+77+100)/4 = 69% ie if they have a 3b range pre of jj-aa and they'll always stack off with an overpair the chance they'll be able to do so is only 69%

so the chance they have an overpair and you have a set is 0.69*0.125=0.086=8.6%
so if we alter our original breakever odds to the time we stack off with a set vs an overpair we get that we need to make 290 8.6% of the time which isnt even possible due to stack depth

AK and AA make up a huge portion of his range. I doubt JJ-KK bets turn. So against a straight you will boat up 23% of the time. You need to get 3.4:1 odds to breakeven. So if you can $100, you have to win $340 to breakeven. Actually since he has only $60 behind and pot is $280, if you call $100 and stack him every time, you will breakeven.

Pre flop is a clear fold. You want 15:1 against a very tight range of QQ+ or so. If we throw in AK and/or JJ you want even more. Problem is an overcard will flop 43% of the time you flop a set against QQ and AK misses flop 66% of the time, etc.

Bad play. Fold pre and fold turn. No way he's betting JJ-KK here unless you have some incredible read.

OP, please don't give results. It biases the responses. It's too late for me to take them out now, but make sure you don't do that in future threads.

As others have said, fold pre. You are not deep enough (effective) to set-mine, and you are completely crushed by an older ABC player's 3-bet range.

Even though you think he doesn't c-bet without a made hand, so you remove a bunch of AK combos from his range OTF, calling on the flop is iffy. BB has a lot of aces in his range, so you have fewer outs (both because of his potential blocker to your SD and because it means that 5s are often not outs). Also you don't have much IOs in hitting a straight/set, since he doesn't have a lot behind and either puts a 4-liner out which will often get an older ABC player to fold an overpair.

Fold turn. There's a 4-liner out and he continues. At the worst, this is an overpair, and, a lot of older ABC players won't 3-bet JJ, and sometimes not even QQ. That means that at best his range is basically "all combos of AK that bet flop, AA, half the combos of KK (some don't bet turn) and 1/4 of the combos of JJ and QQ (only half 3-bet pre and only half of those continue OTT). The vast majority of his range is a straight, as it contains at least one ace.

Fold pre.
Fold flop.
Fold turn.

I'm fine with preflop call and flop play but you got to fold turn based on villan betsize alone.

Why would villan bet so much on turn with $60 left unless he's billing to call a shove.

fold pre

Pre is ehh, I get your trying to set mine. Ok fine, flop I can see ok although probably compounding your smaller mistake pre but so far I don't have a huge issue but then turn comes and yea that was a bad play by you, no way OMC is betting JJ QQ or KK there it's either AA or AK and since he fired flop, he's weighted heavy towards AA, so I'm folding turn here pretty easily actually to this Villian.