$200 buyin ($3-$5 blinds) at Commerce

Villain is on button with $200. He's aggressive, a bit spewy and likes to make moves

Hero is MP and has $300 and solid TAG image.

Hero overlimps A9dd and ends up in unraised pot with 4 opponents.

($20 pot after rake) Flop AsTd7d

Checks to hero, who bets $15. Folds to villain, who calls.

($50) Turn Ac

Hero bets $30, villain calls

($110) River Ah

Hero..........

Check river, let him try to bluff. If you bet out he'll fold his flush draw if he has one.

$60.

I'd lead for $75, hoping V has a T or 7 rather than a diamond, since you have 2 and there are 2 on board.

In my experience, live players call here a lot with any piece just to SEE if you have quads 'cause they can't believe it... plus the Zeebo Theorem where players can't fold full houses holds pretty true in this spot, but they'll certainly c/behind a lot. If they fold don't show.

i never check the river with the goods but i think you have to check this one.

1. If he has a 10 hes not checking back and hes probably bet/calling his last 150
2. If he missed a straight or flush draw he might bet/fold some amount. At least you are giving him a chance at him giving you money rather than when you bet and he folds all of his missed draws.
3. I do not believe there are not many hands in his range that will call a bet with worse but will check behind everytime you check (ie. a pair worse than 10s).

I also think theres some validity to betting 30 to induce a shove for 120 more from an aggressive opponent but I believe that checking outweighs this. The only benefit of this would be to stack the guy if he did have a draw whereas if you checked you may only get $60 or so.

My initial thought was to lead out strong b/w 90-100.

But given the spewyness of button, I check here b/c it really looks like he had a draw and will be forced to bluff if he wants to win the pot. No way he puts you on an ace at this point and will fire with any missed draws here, imo. I also doubt he'll just check behind a missed draw given spewy image.

Check/ship.

I like a bet between 30-40. For value and at the same time to induce, it looks really weakish like a blocker bet. He might just shove his missed flush draws into youre quads. He will call this without a doubt with a 10.

Lets say he shoves his missed draws 25 % of the time, for 120 more after you bet 30. You make 120 25 % of the times which equals 30 dollars. So 30 + 30 = 60 on avarage.

I guess a bet of 70-80 is not bad either, it will get him to fold all his missed draws but youll get more value of a 10

If you think he calls a bet of 70, 90 % of the time then this would make you 63 dollar on avg.

I dont think checking is an option. He will simply just check most of his fullhouses behind. I think if you want to check you might as well bet 25 to induce and at the same time get value from fullhouses.

I know the math isnt exact etc and missing some factors/options but are there any major flaws in my reasoning?

$50.

There are not a to of hands that your opponent bluffs with on the river, but he can "hero" call with a fair amount of hands.

40 dollars.

and if your ambitious bet a scared 15 and let him try to rep the ace

+1 On the small bet to induce. I really didn't know how I wanted to play the river, but this makes sense. If villain likes to make moves, it seems to me like he'll have a busted draw about as much as he has a good ten. A small bet might get value out of a ten, and you can obviously LOL RAISE over a raise.

hes probably betting a 10 on the river if we check. i dont see how the guy has a pair worse than 10s here like ever.

There is an old rule that bad players can never fold a full house. Let's see.. bet the 70 and see what happens. If he folds - good for him.

Really the question comes down to our as read as to what villain has. Villain is supposed to be aggressive, yet he is extremely passive this hand. Is he calling down a draw? Is he calling down with a pair? I tend to put him on a straight draw or flush draw instead of calling down with a ten but this is extremely read dependent.

Since I put him on a draw, the question now is what to do:

- check to induce
- bet (small?) to induce

I generally like the first option at a weak table. Bad players can bluff when checked to, but it takes another level of player to raise a river bet as a bluff when checked to, even if the sizing is fishy. If villain indeed has a ten, he, being aggressive, may not check behind anyways. But I really don't see villain bluff raising our line if we bet on the river (we're not the only ones that know zeebo).