I played this hand the other night at the casino. It was a 2/5 NLH table, but history is basically irrelevant since I just sat down.

OTTH:

I had JJ in MP and raised it 4x the BB
-4 callers

Flop comes 10d,3c,5c

I lead out for 2/3psb, get raised, I shove

It was completely obvious that the villain was chasing his flush. Idk why it was so obvious, but I just had the feeling. With that being said is this a good spot to GII?

If he has two FD overcards he's going to win 55% of the time. If he has two undercards for a FD I'm ahead with a 60% chance of winning the draw.

Now if he has 2c4c he's going to win 57% of the time.

Obviously it's nearly impossible to put him on an open ended straight flush draw, but is this a spot to just fold to his reraise OTF or did I play it correctly?

Next time I'll obviously raise more preflop to filter out the drawing hands.


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Depends. Pro strategy or recreational poker night strategy?

As a rec fish, I would look at it from a bankroll perspective.
Do you have the bankroll to coin flip buy-ins? If so, then pushing minor edges matter.
If not, or you came to play poker for a night with just a couple of buy-ins and you just sat down 15 min ago, then I would wait for a better spot.

I like to at least 'think' I'm betting when I'm good otherwise if I want to coin flip 5% edges I could go bet red or black.
He could be on a flush draw, or hit a set, or have an over pair. You have $80 in the pot when he raised. If you fold you have $420 left to win it back on a better hand.

Flame away pros :-)


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I think we can properly disregard all sets... Pocket 10s would have reraised my bet preflop and any other set wouldn't have reraised my cbet on the flop. That doesn't make any sense to me tbh. To protect from a flush with a set? Horrible play since the odds of hitting a flush are 30% so 70% of the time you're milking the villain's stack.

If he had AA,KK,QQ he would have 3bet preflop too.

Flush draw is the only reasonable range that we can put him on.

Positions?

You're assuming he is a "good player" that plays in a way that makes sense to you.
You might be correct.
I'm not arguing your read. I'm asking if you arrived at the poker room wanting to push a 55/45 edge for a buy-in enough times for that small edge to work in your favor.
If so, trust your read and shove.
If not, fold and find a better spot.




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Ya you're right about assuming he's a good player haha.

Regarding position he's in position and I'm OOP


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How deep are stacks?

In any event, unless stacks are very deep (say $1500 effective), I don't really see what the question is. If you're sure he has a flush draw, and at worst you're a 55/45 dog and a lot of the time you're a 60/40 favorite, how can it be a mistake to gii? If you're really worried about it, you're not rolled to play 2/5 and your mistake was sitting down in the first place rather than playing 1/2.

True you're right about my roll and I'm not very comfortable with playing with stacks so deep, but I've been working on it


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how on earth are you so sure he has a flush draw when you're new to the game with no history with anyone smh.

there isn't nearly enough information in the OP to make any reasonable comment about this hand imo...

It seems completely normal for a player to call a 4x raise with pocket 10s then shove when bet in to.

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This is partially wrong, yes, we are flipping a coin against villains range, but we are flipping a coin with dead money already in the pot. Who wouldn't want to bet $100 on a coin flip to win $205? When you bet red or black for $100 you only win $195.

I'm put in tough spots like this 1-3 times a session. I have an over pair and have to figure out if the villain is raising with a draw or set/2pair? It is really just villain dependent, thats why I always pay attention even when I'm not in the hand.

I think shoving is fine. But I'm really good at winning coin/flips

I'm not arguing. I'm just pointing out that, imo, bankroll matters a great deal when discussing pressing those small edges.

Sure, It's important to understand the mathematically correct decision which states long term you will come out ahead. I think the way the op was written he lost the hand to the flush and wanted to know if he made a correct shove. I'm assuming a pro doesn't ask that question.
So, does the mathematically correct decision matter? If you are playing recreationally why not pass up the 'opportunity' to flip with a 5% edge, keep 80% of your buy-in, and keep grinding out a win for the night.
I'll choose to ignore the mathematically correct play here because I can't lose 5 buy-ins in a row. I'm confident in my ability to play long term and find better spots to gii. Suckouts happen but a 82/18 story is better than 55/45 story.

And position and stack sizes too lol


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Stack sizes? Any reads on villain? How large was his raise? Answering these questions could help in deciding whether your shove is a good play or not. With the information you provided I..guess..it's a good play? I think he has 33, 55, 53, and sometimes TT just as much as he has a flush draw. Shoving isn't terrible but as others have said its "at best" 55/45 or 60/40 in your favor while if he has sets or two pair you're crushed.

Even worse I think you mentioned he's IP. Why wouldn't he just flat with a flush draw? Seems to me if he is raising flop with a flush draw it's either with high over cards like AJc+ or some combo like ATc or A4c.

Everyone has already pointed out the glaring flaws in this hand history.

But if we somehow ignore all of that (and assuming you are correct in your ranging)
Lets pretend that we have 100bb stacks.
We open for 4bb, get 4 callers.
Flop has 20bb, we lead for 14bb, get raised to 40bb (it actually doesn't matter what he raised to since we are assuming that he is never ever folding).
We now have to put in 82bb more into a pot that will have 212bb.
You think that we are 50/50 to win the hand?

We are risking 82 to win an addition 130.
You like your 50/50 chance getting 1.5:1? I certainly would.

Even if we have 200bb stacks here, we are putting in another 182bb to win 230bb more.
That's 1.26:1. Still a damned good result for us.

Again, we are ignoring that your ranging might be wrong as other have pointed out.
Returning +24bb on average when betting 82bb is a very solid 29% ROI.
If you're passing up on that spot, quit the game.

I know I played it fine, but the hand he ended up having left me at 43% chance of winning to his 57% so I wanted to post this hand.

I appreciate you and everyone else taking the time to comment on my post.

You could just call the flop 2b and dodge a flush turn before you gii.

LOL @ not stating stack sizes and then asking whether or not to GII.

Regardless, since we're apparently psychic and know villain has a flush draw, we should flat, folding turn if he hits and putting more money in if he doesn't.

Better, again since we're psychic, we should probably pick a game with a better return when we magically know what cards we're facing.

This^. If you KNOW V has a FD call flop and jam non-club turns.

They let you rig the deck where you play? Finally figured out how you [claim to] beat the game.

You dug up this post from two months ago so you could make an unnecessary snarky post that shows how you don't understand what's going on? Having a tough November are you?

There's a search function, why are you acting like it's archived physical documents?