I obviously understand the logic of your theory and welcome you to test it in the casino.

My guess is that he reads hands well enough to know almost exactly what is calling or folding to him on the river.

Exellent post. Thanks. I play against these type of players frequently in live games and can find them quite frustrating. I'll definitely try out your suggestions.

Do you mean SDCs or donkeys?

I think you guys that are saying these games can be beat for buyin after buyin are just running hot. Like someone said earlier, the most 1/2 can be beated for $20/hr, the most 2/5 can be beaten for is $50/hr and the most 5/10 can be beaten for is $100/hr. End of story. I dont care if your Phil Ivey. Your long term winrate will never go significantly over these numbers. Maybe Phil Ivey beats 5/10 for $125/hr but at that point theres such great diminishing returns its not even worth it to put your time into that game anymore.

To beat these games for these numbers, you have to be VERY VERY good. Much better than Brian Townsend was when he was playing in those live games (very early in his NL career). You have to play an ever-changing strategy that beats the table you are at RIGHT NOW. Every live game has different pre-flop and post-flop dynamics going on, and no single strategy will crush all live games. You need to be able sit down, figure out what sort of game you are in, and adjust correctly and quickly. Thats very hard. I have years of live NL experience and I still have difficulty doing it.

Also keep in mind you have to factor in the rake. If you are playing Cali 1/2 - 5/5, its going to take a massive chunk out of your winrate.

play on internet

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but why are you capping 1/2, 2/5 and 5/10 winrates at 10bb? Shouldn't the largest 1/2NL winrate be much larger than the 5/10NL winrate, due to the increased skill of the players involved (unless you think the rake evens this out)?

A lot of people keep saying this... you can test this "10BB/hr max" theory for yourself. Just look for Felix or Chris in Vancouver poker rooms.

I can pretty much guarantee that at least those two have been and will continue to win a hell of a lot more than 10BB/hr consistently over a ton of hands.

I think that the doubters underestimate how poorly most live players adjust to their hand-reading and extreme styles of play, the ones this thread is all about.

I pretty much agree with you, but the most important factor is obviously the quality of play of the opponents. I know of a few people who have crushed 1-2 in the New England casinos over the past 5 years for much better than 10 bb/hr using a smart lag style. The opponents have been that weak. Lately I've noticed the games to be a little tougher, people aren't giving their money away like they used to, so I'm not sure if huge winrates can still be acheived.

It takes a long time to get a signficant sample size live. People can run hot for months at a time. If they play more sparodically, they can run hot for over a year.

[QUOTE=WMB;11119643] I know of a few people who have crushed 1-2 in the New England casinos over the past 5 years

What New England casinos are you referrinng to? The only ones that I know of are foxwoods and the mohegan sun. I play at foxwoods and find that the games have gotten tougher. (The weak players probably have gone broke.)

I've been playing some live NL recently and have a few more ideas. Not sure how to exploit them to the maximum, though.


DE 9: Most live players do not give 3-bets their proper respect. Eg: live donk opens UTG with K J for 8BBs. Nit 3-bets for 20BBs, live donk calls.

DE 10: ~1/2 of live players minraise WAY too much and do not make their 3-bets large enough. They don't get enough value OR protect their hand. Eg: Live donk sees flop with 8 6 and the flop comes 6 8 T. Live donk checks, someone bets, five callers, live donk minraises. This is unbelievably rampant. It seems that any time someone flops a hand that can beat top pairs or overpairs on the flop, a minraise is in order. Forget value, protection, pot/implied odds, isolation, draws, etc. MUST GET A CALLER!

DCA 7: The adjustment for DE 9 is to (a) 3-bet a larger amount and (b) 3-bet a merged range for value, not a polarized range. If everybody calls your 3-bet with A:diamond T when you reraise with 7 6, then stop reraising with 7 6. 3-bet with A Q or 8 8 instead. You'll get value from a wider range. There has got to be more ways of exploiting people who always call 3-bets than this, though.

DCA 8: The adjustment for DE 10 is a minor one. When you flop a decent draw, worry less about the other eight players who saw the flop putting in a big raise after you've made the first call.

sweet post man

great post, I play at almost all the poker rooms around Vancouver, mostly edgewater, but I dont know any Chris or Felix that your talking about?

If they are making so much why are they still playing 1/2NL or 2/5NL though?

Felix doesn't play much any more. He's usually at the Edgewater 2/5 when he does play, though. His main game was the casino on Broadway, now closed.

I'm not enough of a live reg any more to know how much the other guy plays, but I imagine it's quite often. Edgewater is the only place I've seen him.

[QUOTE=jjb510;11145233] Yes, both of them. A few years ago when there was a time charge the FW games were tremendous. A really good lag could exploit the weak tights by stealing alot of small pots without the $2-4 rake eating into the profits while at the same time manipulating others into putting alot of money in when he had the best of it. The games were definately looser than they have been lately in general

[QUOTE=WMB;11185316] So how would you adjust to these tighter raked games ? You can buy in at 1/2 for $300. Would you just use the HOC type tactics, or nut camp, or what ? Would Largays tactics still work, or would Sams Dominator tactics work better ?
I'm getting ready to start playing the 1/2 there or Mohegan. Can you give any advice ?

Thanks,

Sean

one thing to add to this...

when you bluff a calling station for hte first time in a session, its OK to make tiny sized bets per street - 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 pot sized bets. when you show your bet and you say "nice call i had to bluff you in order to win" you can add something like "i just have to bluff more next time" jokingly.. they will remember this. when you value bet the hell out of them next time youre in a pot you will get called down more often then not with 3/4 pot sized bets.

i play 1/3 200max in sacramento.

You know, I think I may have his name wrong. He is wildly loose and relentlessly chatty, though. That should be enough to recognize him when starts playing again. I think he's away on some kind of trip.

[QUOTE=seanint;11225076] Playing a smart lag style will still work but its not as profitable due to the rake.

The idea is to take the tighties out of their comfort zone by constantly attacking and eventually stacking them because of your image and perceived hand range but you must be able to read them well enough to know when to commit and when to back off. Until you can develop a good enough sense to play this way you're much better off playing a standard tag style. You'll eventually still get the money.

1. Never ever squeeze. I just never learned. I lost so many buy-ins due to squeezing with a 100BB stack. Raise to 4BB, couple callers. I 3-bet to 25BB with absolute trash. I got called by two players. Dry flop. I am a donk so I shove the rest of by stack in and gets called by both players with top pair and under pair.

2. You should not bet big just because you have a big hand. Your bet size should be related to the strength of their hand. Unless they are going to call your big bet with the 10th best hand, dont bet big on the turn or river.

3. Attack the SDCs' blinds, they don't feel comfortable playing a raised pot. They will check/fold when they miss, just like the rest of the donks.

So would you say pounding on 1-2 limpers from position is a huge leak in these games? It seems to work online because you're always HU but sometimes you get stuck playing 4-5 way because both blinds start the calltrain to hope th elimpers will call and you're stuck playing 5 way pots with T8o or A6s.

My online coaches have preached pound pound pound in position. I just feel like often this is spewy in live games where i have no FE because i have huge inflated pots that i can't cbet hardly ever unless it's the perfect dry boards and i'm just pissing off $60 at a time or so in 5/10 games. Plus cbets on dry boards are expensive Pot is $300 you're gonna have to cbet $200 and thats 1/5 of a buyin down the tubes on the dryest boards if you do decide to stab, which i rarely do w/ over 3 as i've learned even on the dryest boards doesn't seem that profitable unless you plan to fire 3 barrels.

pounding in position is fine, but only do it against opponents that will check/fold when they miss and donk bet when they hit. I only do it against these types of opponents.

When there are 4+ limpers, limp in position with anything down to offsuit one gapper. Isolation raise + cbet is too expensive. Limp limp limp, bet when no one is interested in the pot. Stack donks in limped pot when they flopped top pair.

lol

Thanks.

I really hope this thread stays alive and gets some fresh ideas.

I haven't tested it out extensively, but I think this varies according to preflop bet sizing and cbet sizing.

I wrote in the OP about players are not sensitive to bet size. That is true, but only until once bet sizes surpass a the donkey's dollar threshold of recreational gambling. If you know what that threshold is, you know when small increases in bet size result in huge increases in fold equity.

Just think about how most live players react at a $1/2 table to an opponent's line of $5 raise and a $6 cbet vs a $20 raise and a $35 cbet. There are a hell of a lot more folds in the latter case. But between lines of $5/6 and $7/10 there won't be too many differences in folds.

E.G. Three players with 100BBs each limp. They're all ~45/9. You have A T, probably the best hand. There are several options.
(a) Limp and hope to Value Town a guy with A 6 on an A22r board.
(b) Raise to 6BBs and cbet 1/2 pot 90% of flops. This will often be profitable, but since the dollar value of the bets are small, weak pair and weak draw hands will often continue, which is normally not what you want.
(c) Raise to 9-10BBs and then cbet 4/5+ pot 90% of the time. With these bigger bets, you narrow people's ranges pre-flop, then scare away those weak pair and weak draw hands. To do this, though, requires the right table image (or people trying to flop the nuts or fold to trap you, you maniac!) and a good read on what bet sizes constitute their dollar threshold of gambooooooling. Also, these larger bet sizes often induce people to switch to the horrible strategy of calling any bet preflop then flopping the nuts or folding.