Blinds $1-$2 with optional $4 UTG straddle. Game is $2-$100 spread-limit (max you can is $100 over the previous bet). 3AM Saturday morning. Villain has $300, I cover, we have one HAND HISTORY:

I raise AThh UTG 4 calls. Flop 632hh. X I bet 25 a call and a raise to 80. I just call—he has 200 behind. Turn 9x. I x he x. River 5x. I c he bets 50. I tank and flip a coin that lands on fold, and fold. He shows me Jh9h.

HAND: 4-handed. Button limps in for a $4 live straddle. I call the extra $3 from the SB with 6d4d. BB folds. Villain in Straddle checks.

FLOP: Jd8s3d (pot: $14, 3-ways). I check my flush draw. Straddle bets $10, Button calls, I call.

TURN: Jd8s3d 7h (pot: $44, 3-ways). I add a gutshot, and check. Straddle bets $30. Button folds. I call.

RIVER: Jd8s3d 7h Td (pot: $100)

Check or bet?

Bet 80 or more.

Fold pre especially with the silly $100 max raise stipulation, your hand is trash here

Fold preflop. Bet/fold the river. There isn't that much he bets with and calls a checkraise that you beat.

What are our bluffs here?

Do we need to be balanced at 1/2 spread limit?

What are your checkraise bluffs? If you checkraise and get 3-bet for another 100, do you fold?

You could go smaller than 80.

Preflop if you want to play this raise. With a full table I would say always fold but 4 handed this probably qualifies as a semi-bluffing hand sometimes.

Bet here is far more practical. If hero checks what will villain bet? You have check/called two streets of large bets and a bunch of things got there on the river. He can't expect a bluff to work and even a moderately strong hand will just want to see if he has won or not. The smallest hand villain is likely to bet is a straight. The vast majority of villain's range is not going to bet so you have to if you want to make some money. You also have the problem that if you do manage to check/raise the raise likely gets called only by straights or better and a bunch of that beats you. Better hands are very unlikely but there are so few hands that will call the check/raise it's unlikely to make any money.

Based on V's bet sizing on flop and turn, it seems less likely he was on a draw, and as such is likely to just check back, so we need to bet for value. What size to take will depend on our reads, but at least 2/3 pot, if not full pot.

This is the exact type of hand that regularly gets recommended to fold pre, and its because it lises flush over flush, 2p over 2p and trips over trips. Which I assume happened here.

It’s very narrow, of course, but AdJx, AdTx, and Ad9x (obviously “bluffing” off a chop in the last example).

If I check-raise with 64dd and get reraised it’s an immediate fold.

Consider villain's flop bet of 10, then ramping it up to 30 on turn. Villain's river range is super concentrated to showdown-value hands that are rarely betting if checked to, like Top pair/2pairs/sets. Airball/effectively air hands like weak pairs are rare and also just unlikely to bet. The only hands that we benefit against regularly by going for a check/raise are air hands and straights.

I'm imagining in my head a Venn diagram, one category being "Hands villain will bet if checked to on the river", the second category being "Hands villain can/may call a bet with if we bet". In my mind, the second category is almost completely covering the first, and the second is ~6-8 times the size.

RESULT: I check. He bets $60. I check-raise to $160. He tanks for a bit and folds.

I’m almost certain once I’ve decided to check I need to raise—he’s in an absolutely miserable spot with a straight, but I think he needs to call (particularly if he has a Diamond with the 9). And I’m not going to call if he makes it $260 so I’m only risking $100 if I’m behind, not $200.

My biggest question was the “Should I donk lead the River?” one. Every other time I’ve been in this spot (OOP where my obvious draw came in on the River), I’ve donk-led, and my limited understanding of GTO-solver land leads me to believe this is mostly solid (the aggressor v caller dynamic should flip on nuts-changing rivers), but….like, when I check-call / check-call / lead I am NEVER bluffing. That’s like the most under-bluffed line in the world. So I thought…especially knowing that my V is aggressive and can go for light value (as in our hand history)….why not check to either let him bluff a potential “scare card” (if he puts me on AJ) or go for light value with two-pair or a straight….comfortable in the belief that I don’t have a flush because everyone always donk-bets a flush there!

I don’t know. Maybe it was bad and I got lucky. Or maybe he just had a straight and it didn’t matter what I did, I was getting $60 on the River regardless.

You may never be bluffing when you donk lead the river, but you should have some bluffs, and you could definitely have many worse hands for value.

The salient point here is that V will be checking back here a lot, so we lose value when we go for a check raise instead of leading out.

Our check raises should be more polar - monsters, or hands that can't win at showdown, but block our opponents' strongest value, and in spots where V is likely to continue betting for value.