Curious what the current philosophy is on how much to charge draws, if you think villain is drawing.


Hypothetical example for bet sizing and questions:

1)

We have a made hand on flop and the board is drawy - something like 2h Th Jd

We have something like AJ or top two and want the opponent to draw and pay the wrong price.

Say there is 50 in the pot already. Action is on us. How much is the correct amount to bet. Assuming our stacks are deep, around 500.

2)

Same everything except this time we are shallower, effective stacks are 200.




I know I would personally usually bet around 2/3 pot in the second scenario. That would give him about 2.5 to one on his money if my math is right, when he is 4.22 against. It's just satisfying to me to let someone draw like that.

Deep stack, probably best to bet more to account for implied odds. Is that right?

Just base it on equity and make the price more than the opponents equity. If you assume you won't pay off if the card hits, then you can go on directs odds & forget implied odds. (Since you KNOW they're drawing, you'll fold when that card hits, right?) For example, you have top pair OTF and villain is drawing to a flush and has no over cards.

Ex:

Board: JdTh2h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.49% 62.49% 0.00% { AdJs }
MP3 37.51% 37.51% 0.00% { 7h5h }



V wins 37.51% by the river, or half that by the turn. If you don't plan on betting turn, as long as V pays more than 37.51% of flop betting, he's losing money drawing. If you're going to fire OTT, then villain makes a mistake investing anything more than 18.8% of the total pot after flop bets go in.

edit: the best strategy is to bet the most that you think the draw will call provided it's over that threshold. Some people call PSB with draws, so you can charge them

edit#2. If you're going to fire OTT, it'd be incorrect to call anything over 1:4.3

Tbh this question is pretty insignficant/not what u should be thinking...

Just bet/use a bet sizing that will be +EV vs. villain's range in that when villain gets to the river with x range you just always make him lose EV and you gain EV (in general sense just thinking logically).

---

Unless you over-bet the pot like 1.5x or 2x and villain will 100% call with all his draws then yes use that sizing, but just think about your question for a moment.

[QUOTE=QuantumSurfer;51326632] If you don't plan on betting turn, as long as V pays more than 37.51% of flop betting, he's losing money drawing. If you're going to fire OTT, then villain makes a mistake investing anything more than 18.8% of the total pot after flop bets go in.
/QUOTE]

Pretty good here, no equity realization which just means he's making -EV calls overall in the hand and is losing money.

If for some reason villain is the type to always peel OTF with a FD/SD then fold OTT majority of the time like have all his draws in his folding range then he's losing a lot of money here obv... as opposed to someone's strat who might x-raise or over-call then bluff the river etc... (which may still be -EV as well, but you gotta take a lot of other things into consideration)

Bet the max you think he will call if you want him to call.

Bet more than that if you want him to fold.

Sometimes, they will call off their stack here with a draw. Sometimes, they won't.

Keep in mind that no one ever folds a draw on the flop to a PSB (and often more). So if we're cool with moving towards committing stacks, I would never bet less than a PSB as it is missing huge value. If we're not cool with moving towards committing stacks, then bet a lot less.

GimoG

It is fascinating isn't it? I watched a very tight player shove $600 into a $200 pot the other night, get called in 2 spots, and A high won at showdown.

Really got me thinking and I'm going to experiment with 1x-2x sizing this month.

Where do you guys play? That hasnt happened in years where I play.

When I feel committed, especially on a drawy board, my standard play is to shove easily up to 2x. 4x I usually just do in 2 streets, and 3x is opponent dependent whether I attempt over 1 street or 2. I'm also the tightest player at the table, but it *doesn't matter*; no one folds a draw on the flop.

Gfact:noonefoldsadrawontheflopG

Where do you guys play? That hasnt happened in years where I play.

Obviously opponent dependent, but if you've raised enough preflop to setup a HU SPR of 1 - 4 then your opponent has already proven he ain't a wizard.

Q: How many here fold a draw (flush draw or OESD) on the flop to a PSB? If we're honest with ourselves, I'm guessing a lot of us would convince ourselves a decent amount of the time that we have the implied odds to call. If we're contemplating calling the flop with a draw to a PSB, then it's pretty much a snap call for our worse opponents.

GjustslightlybetterthanmyopponentsG

Unless you play in North dakota, live poker is like this all over the country. Actually I imagine poker is probably quite good in North Dakota too.

Check out some of the highest stakes easy access public games that we have even in 2016

Given a very generic V, I generally bet just under a PSB, because some Vs notice a PSB. If you bet a PSB and V calls, he's paying 33.33% of the pot. In their minds, if they think about pot odds at all, they hit an 8-out draw 1/3 of the time, so he's getting a good price. Never mind that this assumes he sees the river for free if he doesn't hit OTT.

Really, though, V reads are huge here. Some nits won't pay off 2/3 pot bets with a draw, and some maniacs will pay any price for a chance to spike a miracle.

Snap folding in a vacuum. If we're deep and V likes to keep paying off with TP, even when the obvious draw came in, I might call, but I'm more likely to semi-bluff raise than call.

Having something like AJdd on a Js Th 2h 3s board... I'd bet around 90% pot on the flop and turn. I find that most 1/2, 1/3 and even 2/5 players will chase their FD's and OESD's for this price, so I might as well punish them for that.

If we're shallow then I might bet a bit less like 70% pot but no less than that.

Israeli Ron makes poker fun again.

As to the thread question. People call all draws on flop and give up on turn.

You can actually bet smallish on flops, and pound dry turns to get max value out of alot of players (good as a bluff, too).

So like w a pfr to 10 in 1/3 and 2-3 callers on a drawish but not soaking board (K 9 4 hh), you can bet 20 otf (prob 1 caller, maybe 2). and then pound a dry turn to push people off hands (80ish).

this is the best way to value bluff... sadly, i value bluff due to how often I bet flop, get called by a draw, and then pound a blank turn to watch them fold it.