Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I'm outta step with others, by I think the turn check back is fine. No one check/raises the flop with TP, especially those who are passive enough to limp/call AK/AQ preflop, especially against anyone that might be remotely seen as nitty / ABC, so this is often two pair that just boated up or a straight that is unlikely to pay off gobs for stacks on this runout. The only hand we're missing out value from is TT, imo.
GcluelessNLnoobG
There’s 16 combos of KQ + 3 combos of TT = 19 combos of worse value.
There’s 6 combos of AT and 2 combos of AJ = 8 combos of better value.
AK is also a possibility … if V is bad he could have overplayed TPTK. Although I do not think this is necessarily all that likely.
If we bet half pot on turn, half pot on river, I think he’s not folding KQ. Mathematically, betting turn is better than checking under that assumption.
Your reasoning is to take the idea that KQ doesn’t pay off gobs (which may or may not be true) and use that to claim we have to check. You should consider that we can bet less than gobs.