Quote:
Originally Posted by NewLiveFish
There is no concensus, because as mentioned above it should be villain dependent.
That said, there are some general concepts to keep in mind. First, the more you bet when you cbet, the more effective your cbet has to be to be +EV. For example if the pot is 30 and you bet 15, you only have to be effective in your cbets 34% of the time to be +EV. If you cbet 30, you have to be effective 50% of the time.
Since many in LLSNL play fit or fold and don't pay attention to the size of the bet, cbet effectiveness is fairly inelastic. Therefore, there's little purpose in making too big of a cbet when you want a fold.
Next, it is easier to get a fold from your cbet when you are in position vs. being oop. Someone calling oop has to face the idea on the turn that they will have to show continued weakness by checking. When IP, they can peal a card and see if you really meant it on the turn.
Dry flops are easier to get folds from than wet flops. If a flop is K72r, there just isn't much for someone to draw to. If it is T98 two tone, there's tons of hands that can feel they have IO to call almost any size bet.
The more people in the hand, the more people that can actually hit the flop. If you use that old rule of thumb that you'll hit a flop 33% of the time, one can see that cbetting one player can often be successful. When you add a second player, one of them will hit the flop over 55% of the time. If you are cbetting the pot, this becomes a negative EV situation. Raise it to 3 players and your chances of a cbet working drops to under 30%.
Finally, you'll want to balance some of your checks on the flop when you don't bet with good hands to prevent people from exploiting you. You can often pick up two bets from people who believe you don't have a decent hand because you checked the flop and they don't want to be bluffed.
I agree with most of this, but your percentages are a bit misleading regarding "hitting the flop." Yes, two unpaired cards will make A pair 1/3 of the time. That means assuming ATC, they will make top pair 11% of the time (much smaller! It also means that when you bet with A-high, it is often a value bet against drawing hands and not a bluff.) Again, ranging becomes important here, as most players are not going to play ATC, so if a player plays mostly PPs and broadways, a low flop will almost always give him a whiff, as the PPs make up a smaller portion of his range, and the odds of the low cards on the board actually matching the PP in his hand reduces that percent even further. If the board comes out KQJ, there's a big chance he hit two pair or even a straight, but if he checks to you, the 2-pair becomes a lot less likely, so the scariness of the board can often increase the FE of a Cbet.
The long and short of it IMHO is that being the PF raiser in position against 1-2 opponents provides a number of very valuable c-bet opportunities. Some opponents will call you all the way down with bottom pair, so obviously you should value bet them thin rather than cbet. If, given no other info, was simply asked "Cbet or no cbet?" My answer is "cbet." Your cbets will usually win you a pot bigger than the size of your bet, so they will not even have to be successful 50% of the time to work. If the table is disrespecting your cbets (check-raising, check-calling down with smal pairs), then you need to switch tactics and use your loose image to get paid with value hands. But I usually find that if I play pretty tight for a few orbits, many tables will allow me to cbet mercilessly for at least an hour before people start playing back at me...at least at 1/2 that's what I see.
Finally, I have no problem with saying cbet 70%. Harrington advocates randomizing play for deceptive purposes. I say cbet 70% both because it provides deception, but also because I usually feel like cbets will be effective roughly 70% of the time (i.e. - the right board conditions and villain conditions exist...but I defeinitely adjust this number for tables with unusual dynamics). I also can't tell you how many times I've checked behind after having cbet a lot, and a player can't control his frustration, shouting something like "C'mon where's the cbet" when he was waiting to check-raise. You disappoint someone once or twice in this spot and they will be afraid to trap you when there's any draw on the board - which is like 80% of the time...
