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Cbet with air c/r by short stack Cbet with air c/r by short stack

12-21-2014 , 11:13 PM
Wondering what you guys do in these spots:

Hero ($400)
V ($98)

4 limps to me on the BTN with KQo and I raise to $18. 3 callers.

Flop J22r. Everyone checks to me. I'm not a fan of firing into 3 people calling large raises but it's such a dry board
I bet $45. Everyone folds to V who shoves, leaving me to call $35 more. Do I call here knowing he's got at least a pair of Jacks or lower with 2 bare overs just to save "my image" or keep people in the dark with what I had? Is it ok to just fold here? If my outs are clean I've got 6.

Math-wise does that mean I just need 17% (35/195) equity to call? Is my equity 24% (6 ×4)?

Assuming the math is correct for me to call in this situation, what about in times where the math isn't correct yet it's a small piece more to call? Is it still worth it to call to protect image?
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-21-2014 , 11:32 PM
I'm a little tired and buzzed so my math may be off, but by my count we're getting like 6-1 on our money. If our outs are live (very confident they are, this smells like a J or something like 88 or something tarded), using the rule of 4 we are 24%. Even a worst case scenario we are 11%, factoring in every 2x hand out there we are getting the right odds to call.

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Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-21-2014 , 11:34 PM
I don't c-bet air into three people like ever. I also don't c-bet air on paired boards very often, as people are disbelievers with paired boards.

As for here, I turbo fold, and make a comment about tens. You have no idea if your outs are any good. He could have a 2, or QJ/KJ, meaning that you have no outs. He could also have a pair below J (rarely), or AJ/TJ and you'd have 6 outs. This means that you have (approx) 3 outs, as you only have outs against about half his range.

Plus, calling won't save your image, because if you hit, you'll have to show, and if you miss, you'll have to show that you can't beat whatever crap he has.

Edit: Actually, due to card removal, the above is wrong. His combos with a J are even, but he has more PPs than dueces, I would imagine. I still think getting to 17% equity is a stretch.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-21-2014 , 11:44 PM
Getting over 5:1 on a call yes it's a call. You are less than a 4:1 dog vs a range of AJ and A2s. And still good at under 4.5:1 adding the QJ and KJ combos that dominate us. It has nothing to do with image.

I don't see what it has to do with your image though. Unless he hits trips or 2p you are either going to show your hand down as a turned or rivered winning hand or muck a hand that can't beat a Pair of Jacks.

How is Cbet/calling worse or better than folding for your image? Either are fairly standard with a TAG button raise range over 3 limpers with 2 overs or some pocket pairs.

FWIW the time to consider our image is when making the Cbet. With a strong winning image I might bet into the field here some of the time depending on the villains. With an average to below average image I'm taking the free card a fair amount if the time.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 12-21-2014 at 11:53 PM.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 12:03 AM
You can cbet even a bit smaller on such a dry board. Pot is ~ 70 on the flop, half pot or even a bit less will fold out air. You do want to be betting bigger when you have a hand you're willing to stack off with on this board, but without more information I don't think your opponents are going to exploit your betsizing by peeling light because you bet small. Don't worry about giving off betsizing tells unless it's against people you have history with who pay attention; then you might want to start using some standard cbet sizing like 60% pot on v dry boards, 75% pot on kinda wet boards, full pot on sopping wet boards or whatever %s you prefer.

As to whether cbetting is profitable in this hand; impossible to say w/o more info on you and villains. This is an important consideration though, and it's definitely going to be more significant to your wr than deciding whether to call off 1/6 pot against a shortie. You might try to come up with some ranges for what villains call with preflop and whether or not a cbet is good here. If it's close I would lean towards checking behind IP and cbetting OOP.

After shortie shoves on the flop the pot is 195 and you have to call 35. You need [35/(35+195)] ~ 15% equity to call. You might try having a go at villain's shoving range and doing an equity calc as that will give you a more precise idea than the rule of 4, but yeah, you should easily have enough equity to call here.

Making a -EV call here for "image" purposes is silly. It might be a consideration for future play if you make what looked to be a too tight/nitty fold, but nothing more.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 12:04 AM
And FWIW we get lots of folds IMO OTF by A-high and SPP all the time if it's at a nitty enough table. YMMV.

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Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 12:38 AM
Without reads and images, any hand analysis is impossible given this action. Please refer to the stickies to learn how to post a hand that gets good responses.

Edit: It's almost 2015, so if you're not playing your hands in a way that maximizes value (or at least takes player tendencies into account) verse your specific Villains, then you're either a NIT or a losing player.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 02:02 AM
Call here, but don't expose your cards unless you have a winner. The math is just about even, and the short stack will occasionally be completely spazzing here.

As for meta-game/image considerations, it really depends on what sort of image you're trying to create, how long you expect to be at the table, and what style your opponents are using.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 02:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Havax
Math-wise does that mean I just need 17% (35/195) equity to call? Is my equity 24% (6 ×4)?
I don't think you have it right. You're calling 35 to win 230. You get your 35 dollars back if you win the pot. 35/230 is 15.2%.

Everything depends on the range you assign the Villain.

If he could have AJ or JT (and he probably could) it's a barely profitable spot. Worse case it's a fold.

Board: Jc 2d 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.822% 85.60% 00.22% 157632 400.50 { A2s, KJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 14.178% 13.96% 00.22% 25707 400.50 { KQo }
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 12:10 PM
Nothing wrong with a c-bet on this flop. Many villains will muck Ace high here.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote
12-22-2014 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
I don't think you have it right. You're calling 35 to win 230. You get your 35 dollars back if you win the pot. 35/230 is 15.2%.

Everything depends on the range you assign the Villain.

If he could have AJ or JT (and he probably could) it's a barely profitable spot. Worse case it's a fold.

Board: Jc 2d 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.822% 85.60% 00.22% 157632 400.50 { A2s, KJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 14.178% 13.96% 00.22% 25707 400.50 { KQo }

Hafta include AJ if you are including QJ and KJ. Important since that's 12 combos that aren't dominating us.
Cbet with air c/r by short stack Quote

      
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