Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDunePariah
Are either of these statements implying that I should not have bet so much with the cbet, essentially committing myself? You aren't suggesting I check this flop here, are you? If so, please explain.
You've got a medium overpair. By my count you are only getting a little better than 2-1 to call here, not 2.5-1, which changes the equity you need with two cards to come from 28.6% to 33%, it's not a huge difference but it DOES matter.
If the V is pushing a draw you're actually a small favorite, no matter how big his draw is. You're actually a 51-49 favorite over 8c6c and AcKc. Against a flush draw with just one overcard (i.e. AcTc) you are a 3-2 favorite. Given that you have already seen him play draws passively I'd discount this possibility.
If he's got you beaten you are a HUGE underdog. Against 55 you're a 5-1 dog. Against a random 7 you are a 10.6-1 dog.
If you're ahead because he's holding a smaller pair you are almost an 11-1 favorite.
His check raise line indicates some strength. Since you are such a big dog if you are losing you need to ask yourself how likely is his play with the hands you are ahead of? We have already seen him play draws passively so he's probably not holding one. If he has a hand were are so far behind the most likely ones that take this line I would fold. I know almost everyone else has said this is an easy call but I honestly believe this is a situation where if you are ahead it's only slightly and if you are behind you are crushed.
I'd like to make one last note about your comment regarding possibly checking here. Checking is NOT a bad play. A medium sized overpair is NOT a great hand in a multiway pot when the board offers lots of draws. Think for a second about how many cards you are dodging. As, Ks, Qs, 4s and 9s, any club. And those are just the obvious ones. In this hand both the players behind you folded. If either one had shown interest you could easily be in a worse spot than you are now. Checking the flop is very far from a horrible play. It keeps the pot small with a hand that isn't very strong. It gives you a chance to evaluate action behind you without commiting yourself. Most importantly the turn card will dramatically alter your hand's equity. On a blank turn, especially if the flop checks through, you are most likely best and can proceed confidently. If a bad card hits you can get away from your weakish hand at a minimum loss.