I've played about 7 or 8 orbits and these players probably don't have much of a read on me. I've stolen a few pots on scare cards and called HJ's 40bb shove on a T42 rainbow board with T9 and it held against his T3. If they're not paying attention to the opponent I did that against then they may think I fall in love with TP.

HJ is an old man who bought in for 50bb's and has shoved 3 times on flop in last 5 orbits. I snapped him once and he took down small pots on the others without showing. Not an idiot but not a poker strategist by any stretch.

BB seems like a decent player for this casino. But he's done nothing to show that he's tricky; seems a pretty straight forward, tight player. But I don't know enough about him to know if he's capable of overplaying TPTK or getting aggressive with big draws.

To the hand:

Hero in UTG+1 with $240
Villain 1 in HJ with $300
Villain 2 in BB with $250

UTG folds, Hero raises to $10 with K K, 3 folds. Villain 1 in HJ flat calls. BTN folds. SB folds. Villain 2 in BB flats.

Flop: 2 8 Q (3 players, Pot~$30)

BB donks out $15
Hero raises to $40 (What do you think about this play?)

I'm raising here for a couple of reasons. 1. People donk out with flush draws at this level to keep their odds. 2. They donk out with TP hands to see where they're at. I also don't want to give HJ odds to come along with a 9T hand or diamond draw, and I want to either take down the pot, bring along AQ, Qx hands that will call, or re-evaluate if I'm re-raised.

HJ folds.
BB thinks for a second, and tosses out a $100 chip.

Hero?
The pot now has $185 in it and it's $60 to call.
This bet is a weird size where if we call I think we're committed. It's either gotta be a shove or a fold, right? No turn cards will help me.

Against a good player, I could see them doing this as a steal move/semi-bluff on a pretty dry board, knowing that I'll c-bet this with pretty much anything. But I'm not sure Villain is on this level of thinking.

I'm putting him at this point on a range like AA,22,88,QQ, Ax, KQ. But I'm leaning way more towards sets and maybe a slow played AA or QQ. The $100 chip seems even stronger than if he would've shoved. Without seeing the guy do anything crazy yet, should we be finding the fold here?

If he threw out a $100 chip without saying raise then it should be just a call, so ask the floor person next time. I would have raised flop to $65 and shoved blank turns, and I also would have made it $15 pre. Probably stacking off here. If he's got a set give him the money.

Doubt he has AA, if he has been paying attention and saw you snap with 109 earlier then this could be at best for you AQo to KQd which your hand has good equity but to me smells a lot like a set or AQd which is a monster here, you have no FE here so he has a hand, for me going to depend on the V, I could go either way on this hand depending on V but leaning ever so slightly towards pushing stack just because he saw you snap 109 off earlier (if he saw).

No, he announced raise. IMO the only hands we beat that would do this are AQ, and big draws/Qx hands with Q.

And opening to $15 preflop from UTG+1 seems like it would really make our hand face up and also scare away some hands we beat, right?

$10 was picked b/c it accomplishes our goal most of the time without giving away that we have a big hand. I want to get paid off by JT on a Jxx board cause these monkeys almost never fold TP and they don't bluff scary boards enough to twist me up.

My line may be sub-optimal though. That's what I'm here for afterall

He did see me do that earlier with T9, so he may think I'm some sort of maniac if he wasn't paying attention to my opponent and why I thought I was ahead.

But if that's the case, wouldn't he just shove now?

And if he really was a sicko, with a monster draw but un-made hand or a bluff, wouldn't he just flat my re-raise and shove any turn?

His bet just screams to be wanting a call. And my hand is very obviously a big pair or TPTK. We have 0 fold equity if we shove...I'd be shoving $190 and he'd have to call $90 to win ~$380.

At 1/2 it seems like we should never be folding this to most opponents, but considering all the factors, how can we be good here?

If a $15 raise turns your hand face up, you're not raising enough hands. Most V's don't have it in them to 3b this flop with Qx or a flush draw, especially with that sizing, so he probably just has a set. I don't hate folding, but it's hard to flop sets.

This is what I think too. That's what's making it hard for me to see what I beat. These marginal value spots are a spot I'm working on figuring out right now.

And I hear you, but I do raise a lot. But mostly from position. My typical open from MP or LP is $13 and $10 from EP--and these are bigger than most($7/$8 is the standard). I'll raise suited connectors, small pairs, big broadway, and big pairs all to $10 from EP. But I would never raise $15 from UTG+1 in this game, b/c $15 in THIS game is a huge open and in their minds only means a big pp or AK. So if I actually do have a big pp, I don't want them all folding their broadway hands or being scared with their 99 on a 762 board when I bet.

Does that make any sense? I'm trying to get my mindset right on this kind of situation.

$40 is too small. You need to raise the go to 60 I would say. Now fold. He really shouldn't have AQ/KQ here. Unless you know he pushes draws hard or you have some strong read that he just trying to push you off your hand it is an easy fold now.

1. I think we should be raising the flop and I think it should be a bigger raise, like to 65. Once we do that, I think stacking off becomes pretty trivial.

Unless we have a specific read that the villain never does this with AQ or Qxdd or JTdd/J9dd/T9dd and only with 22/88...

You had to raise big on the flop. (Your raise was too little). This way you have a better idea of his hand and play. Don't want to let him easy with a draw

I can't find a fold on this board, for these stacks. If you both had $600 behind, that would be a different story.

What we know at this point is that he loves this flop. He's unlikely to have QQ or AA because, hello, he's a competent/non-tricky player. If he isn't 3-betting those hands preflop, when is he ever betting preflop? So 22 and 88 are in his range, as is Q8. But so is QXdd. I expect AQ-Q10dd to take this line every time. He thinks he's ahead. If he isn't ahead, he has a ton of outs. And "that fish who raises too often preflop and overvalues tpgk" just raised us on the flop.

I don't understand why you're asking "why wouldn't he just shove" with so many hand options. You've committed $50 to the pot so far. You have $190 left in your stack. If he 3-bet jams the flop, he's only getting called by sets and maybe overpairs. If he makes a smaller reraise, then he can still get paid off by your tpgk hands and weaker flush draws.

Another thing to keep in mind is that your own hand is seriously underrepped at this point. You raised to $10 preflop *specifically so people wouldn't put you on a premium hand.* Then you raised his donkbet on the flop. You could be doing that with a flush draw, a medium queen, a set, an overpair, or a bluff. It's a pretty common bluffing line for smaller stacks. Qxdd crushes most of that range, and doesn't want it to fold. The only hands that would call a shove by Qxdd are currently ahead of Qxdd.

Smells like Q8 to me from the BB.

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His toss chip is just a call so i would see that the dealer enforced it.

AP, I would call and let him ship the turn. Donk leads are normally not 2pair+ so I would let him hang himself.

As he has shoved flop many times over, we have the best of this exchange. He probably overplays AQ as well as his draws so Im fine with letting him keep the lead.

My OP is a little confusing.

But he did announce raise,so the validity wasn't an issue. I just put in that he tossed the one black chip because I think it's stronger than throwing in a stack of $5 chips. Seems more begging for a call.

And this villain is the BB, he's been tight and standard as far as I could tell. HJ is who you're thinking about. The description of HJ was for backstory and could change hero's image to our villain since I was playing at him in this hand too. But he folded flop and was more or less out of the equation other than possible information.

Does that change your opinion of the hand any?