5/5 Live in a very wild splashy over-bluffing game. Villain is a reg but just table-changed to this game, so unknown if she's observed table dynamics. I've never played with her but she seems to know dealers and staff. She's been here less than 1 orbit. 40ish Asian woman. She has ~400. I have her covered.

I raise JJ in UTG+1. Villain, Button, and BB call (~$80)
Flop comes 45T.

BB Checks, I bet $45, Villain raises to $145. Others fold. I call. ($370). The raise looks strong, but she could be raising draws or strong top pairs.
Turn is K, completing flush draw and putting overcard on board (and giving me 3rd nut BDFD).

I check. Villain bets $100, leaving just over 100 behind. The bet seems oddly small. I call ($570)

Turn is K. I check. Villain shoves for last $130. I crying call, thinking I'm beat... but pot odds.

Even though Villain bet small on the turn, you have to consider reverse implied odds here. If Villain had jammed the turn for all 230 instead of splitting the bets across 2 streets, would you have called then?

Noob perspective:

Really feels like she's stringing you along to get your whole stack a little at a time. You can't fold to the flop raise, but the bet on the turn is so suspicious and the flush draw and an overcard get there.

What are you beating on the turn that's taking this line? AhTx? Wouldn't that just be a half-pot shove? The only good news on the flush is the most likely flush combo is AQs and that might have been 3-bet. But she could still have any AXs, QTs, 98s, etc.

This feels like a set (now boat), flush, or even trips, and there are just so few bluffs they could have here.

We bet into 3 players and the lady raised right behind us. The only reason why we might not be able to fold is that the game is described as splashy.

There are 22 turn cards that complete the flush and/or are a T or overcard. So basically half the deck. That’s not ideal, especially being OOP. If we call the flop, there’s only 60% pot left on the turn. So at least we’re not facing any huge decisions.

Obviously without accounting for the splashiness of the game that’s hard to quantify anyway, I’d like to see the numbers how often PIO bets this flops.

Side note: In spots like this where the main villain has only 80BB to start the hand but we’re 4-way to the flop, it helps to know all stack sizes.

We can’t (for 80BBs), but BECAUSE we can’t, we should have reraised all-in on the flop after it got back to us (instead of calling). Since if we’re beat we’re going to lose anyway, we might as well lose in the best way possible, and that’s by shoving on the Flop. If she just has a Ten we want to Shove before any overs to her hand may scare her off. If she’s on a draw, make her call it off while you’re still ahead (or, better yet, make her fold now). And if she was bluffing? Well even her bluffs had SOME chance of beating your hand (As6s will beat you over 20% of the time on that flop) so there’s nothing wrong with denying her even that slim equity by taking it down now.

Asian lady 40 years old who just joined a splashy game? But no evidence of her being splashy? You beat one hand by the turn she could possivbly do this with. A10.

Im playing tight vs unknown woman who raises fop over 3x with me OOP. I probably fold there until I get more info. For sure folding turn once both a K and flush come in. What do you beat? A10? 56 no hearts?

You can’t fold here at any point, just x jam turn. We beat 12 combos of AT , that’s good enough for me. We also block the flush. We are pot committed on this flop. Put the money in and move on to the next hand

Result: She had 55 for a flopped set, a hand squarely within her range.

On the flop, I'm thinking her range includes:
a) Made hand we beat (AT, KT), which may include flush redraws.
b) Made hands that beat us and we're drawing thin against (sets)
c) Draws we lead (AXh), including combo draws like 6h7h or Ah5h.

On the turn, which completes the flush draw....group B now becomes:
A) Made hands that lead us, but we have live draws against (sets; KT; lower flushes like 89); which leaves
B) Made hands we are drawing dead against (exactly A-high and Q-high flushes)
C) Made hands we lead, like AT, are unlikely to be this turn, IMO, but possible, especially if including the Ah

On the river, when our draw bricks, the only hands we beat are:
A) AT and QT, which absolutely should check back; or
B) Some completely random bluff we didn't see coming--odds of that are exceedingly low.

So, in retrospect, I think I cannot fold the flop, since we are leading so many of her raising candidates. I cannot fold the turn, because my draws are live so often and she's giving me a great price to chase (in this specific case, I did have the right price to draw). However, the river call was a blunder. I'm getting something like 7:1, but there's no way I'm good that often.

Still disagree. Asian lady no reads raise you for 3.5x. And the 3.5x raise costed you actually 8x in the long run because “pot odds”. Just fold the flop until you know more about her. I doubt she ever raises AT, KT, qT or all but the best draws based on population reads. Bluffs, im discounting those entirely for the same reason until I see it.

Online same hand, never folding flop. Vs male 40 years old, im not folding flop. Vs male 75 years old. Fold flop.

You can certainly fold to the 3b on the flop which I would have done without much hesitation. Unless V was watching the table she has no idea it is splashy and a 3b into 3 people is either a hand that has us destroyed or is AQhh KQhh or Axhh. Easy fold imo.

River is not foldable, turn is I think even though bet is small, this is a bad card.

Not sure if it changes your view, but there was no flop 3-bet. It was bet-raise, fold back to hero. Bet-raise-reraise is certainly a stronger sequence.

Flop could go either way but vs an older asian lady who just sat down I would lean towards a fold, and I fold the turn for sure though (she's not even worried about the king or about the flush, while betting 100 with only 100 left behind).

I'll run numbers on the flop bets with a semi decent range for villain.

If we use V's likely range based on flop raise: All broadway T's, A2-AQhh, KQ/KJhh (have to give her the Kh on flop, can eliminate on turn) TT, 55, 44, 87hh, 76hh, 32hh, and all 54's.....

When we get raised by V, red JJ is a 60% fold and 40% shove. Pio doesn't like calling. About a 3% call frequency.



Which is what I was about to type before plugging it in. Flop is a shove or fold. At best, we are up against a big combo draw. Sets show up here the other part, with very few top pair raising. I would honestly weight all broadway T's at 50% or less. Which would likely move folding into the 70%.

Pio likes betting this flop with red JJ about 80%. However, that is with the widest calling range for villain. But, that's reasonable. Pio has a call for the raise with this same range.

Once V raises here and narrow's her range, its a much different story though.

If we think V raises with all broadway T's, its negligible on folding or shoving. Calling really isn't good here.


I personally would't assume a newly seated player would do this with just TP, even TPTK until I saw otherwise.

I am surprised. I agree with you that your selected range is at the generous edge of normal, so maybe a little looser than reality, but not by a ton. May I ask you a favor (since I don't own PIO). How does it change if Villain's stack is 100BB or 200BB instead of her actual 80?

And if you assign an asian lady with that range (way too wide) and it is still only 40%….what happens when you take out all 10x broadway hands and draws? It has to be close to 100% fold correct? I don’t currently have a solver

I’ll check tonight. I’d imagine it’s 80% fold and 20% shove.

In the long run, shoving on flop probably isn’t a huge -ev in long run against general population as we get draws money on before they can realize their equity. And the rare times TP will call our 3! flop shove.

Calling however let’s draws get our stack (calling turn and river show this, as hero didn’t fold when FDFD completes on turn) and allows them to fold when they don’t complete.


When we move our into the exploitive side of strategy, regardless of solver, I think we can confidently fold on the flop if we aren’t going to shove, and on the turn if we decide to call.

I’ll check this evening.

Running it now with $1000 effective stacks and $80 pot.

With IP and OOP players options of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% bet sizing options on flop. Same with 200% overbet option on turn and river.

And 3x and 4x raising options.

Will post in a few min once it’s done solving.

But with 200bb, you definitely don’t want to be committing your stack very often with an overpair.

I’m expecting it to move into check/call strategy.

Assuming she can have broadway TÂ’s hereÂ…..

If you bet 50%, and she raises 3x, you can call 80% of the time when you have the Jh in your hand.

On a turn Kh, you will check 100%, and if she bets 50% of the pot, you will fold JJ with Jh 70%. If she bets more than 50%, itÂ’s 100% fold all combos of JJ.

LetÂ’s say you decide to call a 50% pot bet and the river blanks with a $640 pot. With 55, she should bet the rest of her stack, which is a small overbet. And you should fold faster than she motions her chips in.


Basically, if you are both 200bb deep, itÂ’s a huge error on either part if you get to showdown. Either she didnÂ’t bet enough, or you called too much.

Asian lady will never have broadway with a ten in this hand in real life

I agree. I ran it with something like 25% frequency of broadway T’s here for an absolute best case scenario.

I think IRL, this comes down to deciding if V is capable/willing to do this with a flush draw.

If so, we shove flop, if not we fold. This is with 100bb or so. Playing deep stack, can do some calling and revaluate on later streets if the bet size doesn’t get too big in relation to our stack size.

She's an individual.

With this that plop concept, your read becomes ''unknown regular 40 years old woman pulling out a live I'm milking you flop raise'', which is correctly responded by throwing your cards away, preferably with a small flick, so that your cards goes into the muck with a smooth twirling 1080, because you have style, and because you don't want to share the information that you folded an overpair and allow her to potentially assume that you're like the other bluffy guys at the table that tried once more to pull one on her, and not the shark your truly are.

I'm happy with all the money in against everyone else at that table.

The two potential range of draws are more or less negated because it doesn't look like she's trying to make you fold, and she theoretically hits a flush on the turn. So what is she telling you she have? A set?

Or 67o? That's the stone cold bluff, coming from a player that has no balls.