Hero playing 1/2 at the Sugar house. Mid 20s, most likely viewed as a LAG who is on tilt. I had run up my stack to $500 and lost almost all of it in a $900~ pot. I had 56ss and the flop came Q55, villain bet 40 I raised to 100 and he shipped 450 with Q9o.. and eventually peals of a queen on the river.
Since that hand I had been playing a ton of pots and playing aggressive pf. Losing the massive pot played in my favor, because I really wasnt getting out of line after that hand. I just genuinely was getting great cards. Leading up to this hand I've built my stack back up to $550.
Villain. Mid 20s. Has 350ish. He seems like a decent player. We had played a lot of pots together, but never really got to show down. He didnt seem to get out of line pf, but was getting frustrated that I was 3 betting a ton against his opens.
Hero is utg +2 with KK. I raise to $10.
Two players limp, V on the CO makes it $25.
Hero 4b to $85.
Two limpets fold, V thinks for a little and then puts in the call.
Flop: 8d8x9d. ($190~)
Hero leads for $100. Villain doesnt think for too long and ships his remaining $265.. Hero?.....
This was an odd spot. I thought coming into the flop that hero's most likely hands are TT+, AQ suited +, AKo.
It's possible for him to have 99 here, but I think he would have probably just called and let me hang myself. But what does he have that shoves here that I can beat? I think he has to be pretty confident that I have QQ+ and maybe AKdd. Unfortunately I have the K of diamonds which takes AKdd out of his bluffs, so his only real bluff is AQdd..
So it's a weird spot. I really think the only 3 hands that he shoves with here would be like AQdd, KK, AA.
Side note: in my mind I made a mistake on the flop. I wanted to bet something smaller here like $55-$75 and I talked myself out of it and went for the $100 bet.
I suppose the top of his range is 99 but I agree that he might just call. Then he has 7d6d and JdTd sometimes. I think those hands are slight favorites against an overpair here. So he could shove them.
You’re still getting 2-1 to call so I think you’re priced in unless it’s 99.
As others have stated, you can’t fold here, given the odds offered and the equity you have against his range ( wanted to give actual numbers , for my own benefit ofc, but realized poker cruncher wasn’t accounting for dead cards when using the range function and haven’t figured it out yet )
