1/2 Club Game, 6 handed.

V1 ($250/UTG+1) - Host of the game but doesn't play much. Reasonably tight opening range, but will randomly open pretty small with medium strength hands. Not getting it in pre-flop without a premium.

V2 ($49/HJ) - Will get it in with a short stack pretty ide.

V3 (75/CO) - OMC

Hero - (covers/button) - Should have a winning image but clearly willing to mix it up and not afraid to get it in with less than the nuts.

V1 raises to $7. V2 shoves. V3 calls. Hero is on the button with KK. $49 to Hero. Should Hero call to let V1 in the pot, shove or raise small?

My thoughts at the time was that V1 is probably opening about 20-25% of hands here. If I shove, he's calling AA or KK, probably calling QQ or AK (but will definitely think pretty hard about it), probably folding JJ, almost certainly folding AQ, TT and anything worse. Not sure how he reacts to a min-raise, but suspect it's called by a similar range, though maybe he's more likely to call JJ. If I just flat, I think he's calling with a lot of his opening range. So the question is do I let him come along or try to freeze him out with a shove.

Why not just 4B to 110. V1 will likely only shove AA in that spot and he might call with the higher end of his range that you crush. Who cares if he folds his worse, winning 130+ with KK in a 1/2 game is a good outcome. If this went 4 ways are you really going to fold an over pair to V1 getting 2:1 on the flop? Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.

If he only call with AA/KK pre, then definitely flat to keep his medium strength hand in.

You basically playing a side pot against him as V2, V3 are too shallow.


This is not a typical 4 way spot. By shoving, you are still in a 3 way situation at least.

You are hoping to stack V1 on 339 board against his TT-QQ or Q78 board against V1's AQ

Do you think Villain as a host will stack of with AQ on a board like Q78? Also is hero going to be able to fold to a shove from Villain on a JT3 board (where sets/2 pair would make way more sense for V1 to show up with). If villain is a game host he likely will only put big money in super strong. I play in a lot of "club" games, now some hosts truly are there to play but most are just a seat filler and are not looking to play big pots at all. From OP is sounds like V1 is the latter not the former. Trying to stack the host is not a good long term start, you play aggressively against them and shut down to resistance.

I would shove. That looks more like AK/JJ. A 4 bet, but not all in, looks more like AA/KK

If I flat and he flats, pot is about $200 with $200 behind. I think V would have a very hard time getting away from TPTK against me in this situation, since he knows I'm capable of bluffing. I'm basically never foldinga JT3 board when SPR is 1:1 and I have an overpair. Only board I might get away from is ace-high.

Couple of points:

Don't think I can 4-bet/fold here. If I make it $110, V has like $140 behind, so I'm stuck calling the shove. Only reason to 4-bet small in my mind is to get a call from more of his range than calls a shove.

I don't win 130 if he folds, I'm still up against V2 and V3. Given V2 is all in and V3 has $25 back, I'm probably seeing 5 cards against both of them. I'm way ahead of their ranges but if I give V2 a top 25% range and V3 a top 15% range, I have about 62% equity if V1 folds. Obviously a good spot, but hard a lock.

1. Yes. with 1 SPR, any tptk will have hard time fold the flop. Do you really think a player call preflop 49 with AQ and check/fold TPTK on a Q78 board?

2. Yes. With 1 SPR, I'm not folding overpair. I can still beat AJ, QQ, KJ on JT3 board. That is 16 + 6 + 16 =38 combos. His range which beats me only JJ, TT, JTs. That is 3 + 3 + 2 = 8 combos.

3. The only flop I might be folding is Axx

I see two possible reasons to raise here:

(1) To make V1 forfeit his equity by folding. This isn't a concern here because V1 has so little equity against you that the value of keeping him in the pot exceeds the value of folding him out. But, for example, if you had JJ and he had AQs the value of getting him to forfeit his equity would exceed the value of keeping him in the pot.

(2) For value. This is just a math problem. I'm guessing that the number of combos he calls a shove with as compared to a smaller 4-bet (e.g. to 110) is practically identical if OP is correct that V1 will call a shove with AK and QQ, and possibly JJ. My guesstimate is that a shove is better than a call if those assumptions are true. But I think that those assumptions may be off, and if so, calling captures a lot more hands that are huge dogs against you.

I think against most players in this spot calling with 100% of the hands you continue with is correct.

Just to refine my reads, I'm not saying V1 definitely will call a shove with AK or QQ. I'd say he'd probably call, but would have a tough decision. Think he'd be more likely to call w/ QQ than AK, but say 75% likelihood to call with QQ, and maybe a shade above 50% with AK. Obviously these are guesses, and AK in particular I could see him folding. Of course, if he has AK, I'm making a mistake by letting him see a flop for only $42. JJ is probably a fold by him to my shove.

By way of example, though this happened later on in the night, I was in a somewhat similar spot. UTG raise to $7, V raised to $25 from UTG+1, short stack shoves $50, uber-fish calls, I make it $200 to go (with $400 more behind), UTG folds, V curses me a bit and folds, saying he had JJ (which I believe since he showed UTG).

What do you mean by this? If you mean that it is a mistake to just call against AK when he would otherwise call a raise, then yes, you are correct. But it is not a mistake to let him "see a flop for only $42" if he would otherwise fold.

The way I was analyzing this hand afterwards was two questions.

1. If I just call, is V making a mistake by calling, and will V make mistakes post-flop.
2. If I raise, will V ever make a mistake by calling.

Splitting V's range up into various buckets:

1. AA - Doesn't matter, $250 deep it's all getting in no matter what happens unless I just flat, V does too, and board comes A-high.
2. Pocket pairs worse than KK - If I raise, V will likely fold all of these except QQ, so he never makes a mistake if I raise except with QQ, where he makes a big mistake. If V just flats, he's calling $42. If he hits a set he's stacking me and getting V3's last $25, so he's winning about $425 when he hits a set. Getting 10:1 on the call, he's 8:1 against flopping a set, but sometimes gets drawn out on. He's probably making a small mistake pre-flop by calling if I flat, he's in a very marginal set-mining spot. He may also make mistakes post-flop in situations where we both have an overpair or there's just one overcard to his pair (i.e. he has 99 on a J53 board). Think against a pocket pair other than QQ, flatting is better for me, but it's close.
3. Ax - If I raise, he's folding all of these except for maybe AK, so he never makes a mistake with those other hands. If I flat and he calls, he probably hasn't made a mistake. He's almost getting the direct odds to hit his ace, and he'll probably get at least one bet out of me if he does. He may make a post-flop mistake if he hits top pair not with the A though, i.e. AJ on a jack-high board. Think raising is better against Ax to clean up my equity, but again it's close. Contrast this situation to one in which I have AA, and flatting would clearly be preferable.
4. Everything else - suited broadway, connectors, etc. Flatting clearly better against these hands. If I raise, he folds and never makes a mistake. He may fold if I flat, but he may call as well, and these hands definitely don't have the IOs to call pre and definitely can make mistakes post-flop against me as well.

All told, I think flatting is better against his range, but there's an argument for raising too, especially if he folds everything but pocket pairs and Ax should I flat.

Let's say I knew he'd fold to a raise and flat if I flat, such that my choices are flat and let him in for $42 or raise and get him to fold. I think raising is better in that situation. AK has 31% equity against my hand, and is getting better than 3:1 on the call. He's also very unlikely to make a mistake post-flop with AK unless the case king hits the board. So, I think it's better for me to get him to fold his equity with AK than to let him see a flop.

His pot odds are only relevant in this case to whether it is correct for him to call, not to whether him calling is good or bad for you. It can be both correct for him to call and ev+ for you if he does so. That's the effect of the other players in the hand contributing equity.

Analyzed as a heads-up situation, with only roughly 30% equity against your hand, you are getting 70% of every dollar he puts in the pot. Obviously both of your equities are diluted a bit by the other players, but the point is the same. Every dollar he puts in with AK against your KK is good money for you.

The only value to "raising out" a hand worse than yours is if it is going to gain your more pot equity than you lose from knocking him out. As I said before, in this case your edge is so big against him and that existing pot is too small such that you can't possibly earn enough by blowing him off his hand. And that is not taking into account the possible overlap between the villains' hands.

Thanks, this is really helpful to me. I ran the equities giving V1 AK, V2 a top 25% hand and V3 a top 15% hand. In a 4 way pot, I have 53.6% equity in a $196 pot. If V1 folds, I have 61.8% equity in a $147 pot. I probably pay off one bet though if an ace hits the flop, so that is a downside of letting him in, but he won't get to see all 5 cards if no ace flops so that's a benefit for me. Seems like you're right and I want a call from AK (or Ax generally).

There you go; that's the correct approach. You can take it a step further and put V1 on a range instead of AK and can probably tinker a bit with the specific ranges of the other players instead of using X%, but that's just icing on the cake.

The hand is significantly harder when an ace flops, but that's not typical and it is even less so here where the chances of the other players sharing aces is higher. Sometimes the highest ev decisions also make the hand harder to play. Gotta trust that you can handle it. And it might not be that hard depending on V1's tendencies. E.g., a lot of folks will basically never put in action on an ace high flop with less than top pair so you can just check down ace-high flops. But if you are going to do that, you need to check back your AK/AQ there too.

Meh, I would just shove. V1 is never folding JJ+/AK. He also might call with TT/99, knowing that hero is always shoving with AK, possibly AQ, and potentially some other hands (88), in order to isolate the short stack players.

How are you so confident V never folds JJ+/AK. Hero has seen him lay down JJ in similar situation. You assumption does not apply Hero's read on V


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^^^^

Hero did not have this information while playing the hand.

meh. good chance that one of the shorties has ace blockers, so we are not really worried about an ace on the flop, but if V has a pocket pair and we don't reraise, we are going to give him proper odds to set mine against us.

I would make it 125 to go, so that we get a decent side pot. We are shoving all flops

His set-mining odds are actually really close based on raise size and stack size. He's calling $42 to win the $147 in the pot, the remaining $25 in V3's stack and the remaining $200 in my stack. So $372:49, or about 9:1. He's 7:1 to hit his set on the flop, so based on that he's getting odds. However, some of the times I cooler him when I flop a set or suck out on turn or river, so he needs better than 7:1 implied odds to call. 9:1 is pretty marginal, though calling with a pocket pair solely to set mine can't be a big mistake for him. Usually the consensus here is you need at least 10:1 implied odds, and hopefully more like 15:1, in order to set mine.

Two other points that push it towards a call from my perspective:

1. Some of the equity he gets in the existing pot when he calls is coming from V2 and V3, and not from me. So, it's at least possible that while he may not be making a mistake by calling, it's still better for me when he calls than when he folds. Think that's LifeRebooted's point.
2. He can make some mistakes with medium pocket pairs on what he thinks are safe boards. If I flat, he's not necessarily putting me on a big overpair, so could call at least one bet on a safe board, like if he has 99 on an 843 flop, or even if there's one overcard, like 99 on a J54 flop.

I've been playing with V1 for a long time, so pretty comfortable with the read. JJ probably a fold for him, though I wouldn't be shocked if he called. Generally think that V1 would view flipping for his entire stack against AK or AQ as a bad thing, even with the dead money out there.